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I know one of the lads involved in the Festival Syndicate that own Cousin Vinny and he is indeed going chasing. However with both Mikael D’Haguenet and Fiveforthree both going over fences as well, it muddies the waters as regards to long-term targets.
MD will have the Drinmore as his early season target and they’ll take it from there. FFT is a less straightforward horse to train so it is difficult to predict when he’ll be out. CV will start off in a beginners over two miles and they’ll just take it race by race with him.
MD’s Cheltenham target will be very much dependent on how he runs in the Drinmore. His subsequent target at Christmas will tell a lot – whether he drops down for the Durkan New Homes or goes up for the Knight Frank. Unlike Paul Nicholls, Willie isn’t one to tie a horse down to a Cheltenham race months in advance. The horse will decide the target for him!
Going on his mightily impressive win in the Stayers Hurdle in bottomless ground at Punchestown, FFT looks an ideal candidate for the Sun Alliance. Willie will be keen to avoid running his best horses against each other so he may decide that his best chance of winning the two novice chases is: FFT – Sun Alliance, MD – Arkle. They could then keep CV at home for the Powers Gold Cup – good possibility of this given how badly he travelled to England this year.
I certainly wouldn’t be basing my antepost portfolio around what those Cork langers Cashmans or the Carlow town branch of Paddy Power are doing! Pat Keane’s articles in the Examiner will be worth reading over the next few months as he is quite close to Ruby and he was spot on as regards the Mullins’ horses last Cheltenham.
RE: Crack Away Jack, I just think his run in the Champion Hurdle is being overestimated and I think he’s currently very underpriced with a view to the Arkle. They went like sh1t off a shovel in the CH and the front three who’d been handy enough the whole way were absolutely walking up the hill. CAJ was the only one really running on at the end having never really been asked to get after the leaders at any stage. I can’t have him at all at the current odds but sure one man’s scrap is another man’s treasure and I hope he gives you a run for your money.
He might even sneak third behind Mikael D’Haguenet and Captain Cee Bee!
Comments from Emma Lavelle in her stable tour published in the Post today :
Crack Away Jack does not have much to make up to go an win the Champion Hurdle, but you kind of hope he has nothing to make up to win an Arkle, but which of the two is the more prestigious race.
That is what we need to discuss. Hand on heart I could not say at this stage which way we will go.
She confirms he’ll start over fences as that will give him an easier race, whereas over hurdles "he’d be taking on the best from day one".
Hope I’m wrong, but that sounds awfully like a campaign that could fall between two stools.
AP
As I mentioned on another thread a long time ago I am on Tataniano for this at 33/1 & 20/1. If there has been a mover it is him as you now can’t beat 14/1. Clearly he has to improve a great deal on his actual hurdle rating but if he jumps particularly well that is not impossible. I am not big on trends but when you look at past winners of the Arkle there are not that many ex-Champion Hurdle horses.
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Probably that’s because not many go chasing soon enough. Harchibald is classic exmple where they have been chasing the CH dream for years
Now 10 years and his engine has about burned out they send him chasing.
CAJ hardly in that category and I can’t remember many recent chasers that would be as classy a 2 mile hurdler as him.
PN singled out Tataniano saying he thinks he’s one of his best young chasing prospects. Remains to be seen but he absolutely destoyed his field at Cheltenham back in April and then as put away. He looks nailed on to win few chases and could be anything
It doesn’t take a genius to work out why he’s being backed for the Arkle. PN will run him early doors, he’ll make all and win and the one time 33/1 and 20/1 will be slashed way out of preportion by the bookies as usual and become 6/1 or less. Those holding vouchers will be ulikely to wait for the Arkle and most likely lay most of it off at a nice profit and be in a no lose situation.
I think Mikael D’Haguenet should definitely go the Arkle route, the horse has bags of speed.
It could potentially be a brilliant race, if even half of the horses listed in the ante-post market turn up. Captain Cee Bee, Medermit, Osana, Ashkazar, Crack Away Jack, Jered, Sizing Europe, the list goes on …….
…Cousin Vinny, Somersby, Snap Tie, Tataniano, Muirhead…
It’s almost too good to be true.
I thought Noble Alan made a pleasing debut at the weekend and there’s also a few dark horses to consider.
Don’t forget Harchibald!!(??)
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Looks like we’ll get our first clue on Thursday when Harchibald takes on Sizing Europe.
Hard to say how Harchibald will take to fences but the way he travels so easily in his race will be a huge asset to him but Sizing Europe has been there and done it and may just be too good for him. Be will worth a look to find out
Looks like we’ll get our first clue on Thursday when Harchibald takes on Sizing Europe.
Hard to say how Harchibald will take to fencesThis is where TAPK puts his big head on the chopping block and says Harchibald will fail miserably!Not only do i think his heavy front end physique with the look of a horse who has a stiff neck will not be suited to chasing,but also the mental side that will say "Hold on a minute,this is harder than hurdling" will unfortunately see him fail!No doubting Mr Meade and Carberry will have schooled him,but its a different game in a race!The thought of watching scares me!!Paul Carberrys a braver man than me!
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Well recent events over in Ireland put a new perspective on things, with Fiveforthree unlikely to see a racecourse until well after Xmas.
Wilie mentions he may keep him hurdling and I can understand why.
He can take the RSA this season with Mikael D’Haguenet, have a crack at the Wold Hurdle with Fiveforthree and even if he loses he can send him for the RSA the following season.
Ithink one things for sure Mikael D’Haguenet as I have always said won’t be running in the Arkle and now looks nailed on to take the RSA on route to the 2011 Gold Cup.
In the meantime I think Paddy Power must have read your post Gord…they make Sizing Europe an odds on fav to beat Harchibald. Sizing Europe beat next to nothing in his first run over fences but Bob’s Prideas a very impessve winner at Glaway so we should get a better idea tody if Sizing Europe hs actualy recovered fully fom wha was ailing him or most of last season.Interesting race but ouln’t fancy betting in it
Whilst I agree that this news looks good for TAPK insofar as Mikael’s Cheltenham target is concerned, Fiveforthree hasn’t started until well after Christmas in both his seasons over obstacles, so I don’t think we should be reading too much into the delay.
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Highlighted by Thehorsesmouth Champion Hurdle 7th Snap Tie turns out over fences tomorrow. Good horse who could be right in the firing line come March
MD will have the Drinmore as his early season target and they’ll take it from there.
FFT is a less straightforward horse to train so it is difficult to predict when he’ll be out.
CV will start off in a beginners over two miles and they’ll just take it race by race with him.
Sure I hinted on Monday that FFT might be out late in the year! I’d still be confident enough that he’ll make the festival. If Willie can have him out by late January / early February than it should give him enough time to get some chasing experience into the horse. He won the Ballymore on the back of only a routine maiden hurdle win at Fairyhouse so it is possible
Sizing Europe showed today in the Buck house Novice Chase at Punchestowns, that on his day he is a serious horse,he was never out of a canter to beat Harchibald,who to his credit jumped cleanly although i believe one mistake and Harchi will chuck the towel in! If Sizing Europe can maintain fine health and start running up a sequence,he could be anything,trouble is for the Ante-Post punter he never seems to make it to the big day,i am also not convinced Cheltenhams fences are for him!Not an Arkle horse imo!
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Well I though that was a nice performance from Sizing Europe depite the market indicating Harchibald wasn’t fully wound up. SE travelled so easily he looked more like he was out for walk round the roads than in a race.
Hardly Arkle pace but he’s begining to look like the old Sizing Europe who was fav for the CH. If he’s back to his very best you would have to think he must have a very good chance Cheltenham or not.
I thought Sizing was the real deal, and a chaser in the making, until 2 flights from home at the 2008 CH. I’ve lost faith in him since, he doesn’t seem to finish his races. I just caught the end of tdays race; he certainly looked impressive, but the jury is out as to whether he is the horse I thought he was
Sizing Europe was fairly impressive but we do have to remember he didn’t beat alot. The jock seemed to be waiting for someone to come and challenge him for about the last mile!!!
I fancy come the Arkle he will be taken on by a few and his jumping pressurised. I would like to see him jump under pressure at full tilt before piling in at such cramped ante post odds.
Best priced Ante-Post bet at the moment is Daves Dream from the Nicky Henderson yard. I know they think alot of him and judged on his runs to date the Arkle trip and Cheltenham should suit. I’m not sure when he is due out but is worth a few quid ew at 33-1.
If you fancy a look at some of my other fancies please check at http://www.thecotswoldtipster.blogspot.com
i was reading ruby thinks Tataniano will be a hell of a chaser this year just before he took on diamond harry in december or january and got beat he was saying whatever he did over hurdles will be a bonus and come arkle day hell be plenty hard horse to beat he seemed very keen and thatw as way back in december or january so as soon as the market opened i was on this fella next kauto dare i say . big bucks is unstoppable as is the hurricane
Sizing Europe was very impressive on Thursday.
Very athletic and very clever at his fences. Clearly not short of speed, either.
What to make of Harchibald? He will come on for the run, but will never beat Sizing Europe. He jumped soundly, largely down to the fact that he was far too safe at his fences.
He had a tendancy to ‘Tidal Bay’ his fences ie bunny hop. Whereas Tidal Bay had youth and battling qualities on his side during his novice campaign, Harchibald doesn’t possess either and will find life tough against the very best this year.
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