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The ten furlong championship of Europe – and first blood to be drawn for those on the Arc trail, with the likely rematch of Duke Of Marmalade vs. New Approach the centrepiece.
As far as the older horse nominations are concerned – very weak. Duke Of Marmalade is the O’Brien player so outside of him there is the proverbial bridesmaid Phoenix Tower, a possibly improved Mores Wells, Spirit One and Promising Lead amongst them.
William Hill play Duke Of Marmalade at 4/5 with New Approach 10/3.
Casual Conquest. A fantastic Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial victory indicated a class horse, but how does one rate his 5 length deficit of New Approach at Epsom, and then another 2 lengths behind Frozen Fire at The Curragh?
Ten furlongs is going to delight him, though. Downright perfect.
Unless the ground is good or softer 4/5 Duke Of Marmalade is a present for punters if he’s the same horse has he has been all sesaon. On softer ground I’d still favour the O’Brien horse but it will be close and if New Approach can learn to settle it could be a right battle.
Phoenix Tower is getting gradually better and better and he now is entitled to genuinely enter the equation IMO. He will need fast ground but if he gets it he again will run well and if (as at some point its likely) excersions take the edge off the Duke he could be the one to benefit.
The others – forget it.
Phoenix Tower is an unlikely starter – to be considered for the Emirates Champion Stakes instead.
Phoenix Tower is an unlikely starter – to be considered for the Emirates Champion Stakes instead.
Yep, sensible decision if they want to win a GR1 with him as he his held by DOM and won’t meet anything of that quality at HQ.
Interesting if Spirit One does play here but that is all it is in all honesty.
Pretty good front-running victory over Mount Nelson and Archipenko last month.
Promising Lead I feel was definitely being aimed at the Yorkshire Oaks and didnt really have this in mind. Nevertheless, again, an interesting runner.
I think its DoM for me unless the ground is the soft side of good. Then the others could come into play slightly
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hth
But only very slightly.
hth
But only very slightly.
Haha very true! I’d like to hope New Approach would put up a fight here but can’t see it
Got to agree with Corm’s sentiments. Regardless of how keenly he ran or what the ground was, I think New Approach is held over 10f by the Duke. Perhaps hock-deep mud would be an exception, but 4/5 is looking surprisingly good value for a Ballydoyle flag-bearer in these conditions.
They should front run him.. He’s spent all his career up until the Derby doing that then they restrain him when he’s upped in trip?! He won the Derby by virtue of the fact that he was the best horse in the race by a fair way and also because he’s by bloody Galileo, why restrain him? Another gaff from Coolcullen…
Bolger is a very good trainer of horses. Tactician he is not..
They should front run him.. He’s spent all his career up until the Derby doing that then they restrain him when he’s upped in trip?! He won the Derby by virtue of the fact that he was the best horse in the race by a fair way and also because he’s by bloody Galileo, why restrain him? Another gaff from Coolcullen…
Bolger is a very good trainer of horses. Tactician he is not..
Apparently Jim Bolger has been teaching the horse to settle at home much as he did before last seasons Dewhurst. If he can get the horse to settle and not fight his jockey I think there is a fair chance that Manning may well let the horse either front run or track a pacemaker which will make it interesting as New Approach is a stayer and Duke Of Marmalade will be forced to quicken past New Approach.
The nearer this race gets the more I have a sneaky feeling New Approach might make it very difficult for the Duke this time round.
Im really hoping the ground does hold off on the softer side as think New Approach will be the bet of the season for me if it does. His current price of 9/4 is not what I would ideally hope for though after he was beaten last time and I hope he comes out a couple of points before the race, I think a lot of people who backed him at newmarket have lost faith a bit, and so am hoping he drifts because of that, but it is obvious to me that he is just not suited to gd-fm enough to get competetive with good horses that do. However everything that he has done this season that marks him out as being that little bit special, he has done on good ground and if he can muster the form of those two runs he should win this easily.
I still remember a similar split in faith with George Washington after the Celebration Mile two years ago, but if the ground holds as is then I think NA is rock solid banker material this time around (he was far better at newmarket (2000gns) on good ground than he was at the curragh on gd-fm) and back to his best at epsom on good, then below par on gd-fm at newmarket.
Ive been terrible with my bankers this season but New Approach is looking like The banker for me ground permitting. I’ll just keep praying for more rain (but not so much rain that they move the race to a good-firm track
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Bulwark
Does a little bit special mean 1 from 4 races, and should he really be your bet of the season (again?) against a horse that is 4/4 and murdered him lto?
Imo, it isn’t soft ground he needs so much as an earthquake.
Bulwark
You’ve got to stop falling in love with horses. Fall in love with winning instead, it’s far more rewarding!Point taken folks. I honestly do strongly feel that with the ground in his favour he will come out on top this time around, I also dont think it was his pulling that got him beat either last time, he was just completely done for toe trying to come from the back on a fast surface against decent horses full of running. Softer ground will take the sting out of most of the opposition this time around and a more prominent ride wouldnt go amiss either. At 1m2f on his ideal ground I dont think his settling should be too much of a factor, because I think his superior ability will give him significant margin for error, as in the derby.
Also, if you look at NAs 1 from 4 against the duke’s 4 from 4, you may be misled, because NA threw in a better race in the 2000 guineas than the duke ever did at a mile and he through in as better race in the derby than the duke has ever done at 1m4f, so on the balance of it, on good ground NA has more speed and more stamina than the duke. Just because he couldnt beat him on gd-fm doesnt mean he wont this time round o nhis ideal conditions. Remember that NA got nowhere near as close to HTN at the Curragh on GD-Fm as he did at newmarket (Good).
We’ll know by the weekend, if the sun stays away.
PS I dont deliberately pick out favorite horses but cant help but take a shine to at leasst a few in a year.
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