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Watched a prog last night about United Nations sort of reminded me of the EU …. corrupt from the head down with whistleblowers the ones paying the price for their honesty & integrity.
Look up Marta Andreasen.
good luck to allWith a little more research done a bit of integration of previous efforts,raising of the qualifying standard the time away the last couple of months has been quite profitable just had my best Ebor meeting in years and four winners from six bets in the last week (14-20 Aug).So maybe feel it’s time to return to the fray and resume this thread.
Read with interest the many things said about Baaeed,even contributed myself.Couldn’t help but to be impressed on the visual display put up Wednesday although the ease of winning was in my book helped by the fast early pace which meant he was running past tired horses however he did improve his numbers to something respectable for a horse held in such high esteem.I posted that for me Haggas should have targeted the Arc during the week which now seems a viable alternative however the route taken to date doesn’t make an ideal prep for the contest and in running at York perhaps has foregone the chance?
Having just browsed through the cards the coming week it’s not likely I will be posting any horses for your consideration probably before Friday,so until then.
good luck to allHopefully a selection can be advanced for your consideration on Friday assuming the relevant horses are allowed to take their chance in the respective races.
Just been browsing through a Racing Post article as regard the number of meetings scheduled for 2023 which seems to do little about the basic problem of there is simply too much racing and cuts need to be made to ensure a viable long term future for the sport.Once again although they talk about a ‘strategy’ for horse racing under both codes the can is kicked down the road to be dealt with at sometime in the future with all concerned feeling smug having achieved a comprise to allow things to continue ‘in the same old way’.
What will it take for these people to wake up and face reality?
good luck to allThe Roger Varian filly STRAWBERRI e/w caught the eye when successfully stepped up to this trip at Kempton in the first days of the month.Not only putting clear daylight between herself and the pursuers but also registering career high numbers without being put under pressure …. readily said the Racing Post.The easing of underfoot conditions will play to her advantage as connections seem to think she needs this having been kept away from fast ground since a dismal run in the spring at Ascot,where RP noted her preference.
While away I noted within my results winning bets were more likely to be from limited field sizes so thus the each way bet today.The reduced fields will also have the consequence of the investments being shorter prices than previously in this thread but achieving the same profitable aim.
good luck to allQuite a busy weekend by my usual standards as there are two horses for your consideration today and a potential bet for York tomorrow.I shall deal with the two from Ascot in chronological order with the Gosden trained brother to Cracksman in the 12f heritage handicap FRANTASTIC e/w first up to the post.While not showing the same ability as yet his latest run at Newbury improved on earlier efforts recording numbers more like one would expect of his pedigree.This will be a first attempt at this trip but can’t see any reason why it shouldn’t suit with no ground worry’s and the stable doing reasonable I’m looking for a better performance.
The second I’m putting forward for consideration first came to my attention after winning his mid summer Doncaster maiden in comfortable fashion in a fair time.This colt followed up over the same course & distance about a month later much easier than the winning margin could ever say on handicap debut.WILLEM TWEE then scored at Kempton in a very taking fashion with the form being franked since.While this will be a bigger step up in class the numbers he registered when successful at Kempton suggest he’s still improving and capable of better.The RP believe he’s a sprinter going places.
good luck to allMust say I considered yesterday’s showing as disappointing to say the least.
Going to York this afternoon for PRIMO BACIO in the Garrowby Stakes who having spent her career running over 7 & 8f looks interesting in this Listed contest.Her runs over further regularly tell a story for me of never quite getting home with the most recent effort in the Hungerford Stakes being an example.
good luck to allWith all that’s happened recently please forgive me for not doing a full write up,however it would be an untruth for me to say I’m not glad to see racing return.Although a sad time I feel we all need a distraction right now.
So putting forward for your consideration ATRIUM e/w in the penultimate contest at Doncaster this afternoon.
good luck to allWasn’t surprised to see Sunday’s selection receiving attention in the betting market as I considered the 15/2 offered to me a steal in each way terms,a bet to nothing.Yesterday saw the start of ‘The Western meeting’ as I seem to remember it being called and after last year and other consolation races in the flat calendar being cancelled I’m wondering if such races have a future?.The Bronze Cup if memory serves me correct was cancelled in 2021 due to lack of numbers with to my mind the Silver version in recent years being somewhat underwhelming in terms of quality.The Bronze race off at 3.45 is deemed a class 2 event but with the top rated horses being 82 can it in all honesty be called a top handicap?Although in saying the above I may have a selection for the Silver Cup tomorrow.
Back to today and it’s to Newbury I go for a gelding who’s consistency has to be admired and only now seems to be hitting his stride in racing terms.Quite a late foal ,April 9,it’s not surprising MAHRAJAAN is taking time to serve up what he’s capable of and although he’s not been successful this season 3 placed efforts the last being in the Sky Bet (Heritage) Handicap when recording career high numbers.Despite his running well,one blip at York in July with connections unable to explain,the gelding I’m putting forward for your consideration has only climbed 3lb to date and looks to have more to offer after an excellent run at York’s Ebor meeting.
good luck to allVINDICATION?
Came across a small but perhaps significant piece of journalism in a national newspaper on a subject that the ‘nannies’ among the powers that be should maybe take on board before deciding that we all need protecting from ourselves.
While emotions play a big part in our lives influencing more than many care to acknowledge however does this negate or dull one’s intelligence in making decisions?
In the past and I think maybe even in this column I’ve expressed my love of horse racing and betting as an intellectual challenge and maybe,just maybe,I have stumbled across research that vindicates my stance?
To put it very basically a study found that people who are willing to risk cash after weighing up the runners’ chances have a higher IQ than those who do not.The study by Liverpool Uni and University of Eastern Finland said: Compared to the average man in our sample,the average bettor has a higher IQ score.It’s plausible that intelligent people gain satisfaction from absorbing themselves in tasks that involving crunching numbers such as horse wagering.They enjoy the intellectual challenge.
The research can be viewed in the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.
good luck to allToday’s selection being advanced for your consideration is more in hope than expectation that a price reflecting this colt’s chances will be forthcoming on either the exchanges or from bookmakers.Since I’ve tightened up my criteria for possible bets you may have noticed a distinct drop in the numbers and the SP’s of the selections however I’m counting on a superior strike rate to counter this.The William Haggas trained EDUCATOR hasn’t been seen out since his seasonal & handicap debut at the Cavern meeting where with a late flourish he caught the front running leader on the line registering career high numbers to commence his 3yo campaign.After ending the 2021 season by losing his maiden tag beating a couple of juveniles who have turned into decent 3yo’s,Asean Legend & Savvy Victory,there where high expectations.Can’t say I know a lot about his pedigree except for the sire’s run in the 2006 Arc when finishing a close up 3rd but being disqualified after a banned substance was found.The long absence is a concern thus my caution on price which must reflect this fact although all things considered I’m prepared to take a chance if the right odds are offered as I believe the selection has more improvement to come.
good luck to allWhile Longchamp tugs at the senses for a couple of horses at short prices the siren calls are going to be ignored for today and going to Ascot’s final contest for a filly I don’t believe we’ve seen the best of simply because she’s been running over the wrong trip but still has a reasonable record.William Haggas can’t be said to make too many mistakes but he’s now convinced TARHIB is worth a try at the minimum distance.This mid March filly has done well for one foaled rather late and registered career high numbers last time when once again in my opinion failing to see out fully the 6f.If I’m correct we could see her making hay during the winter on the a/w.
Over the channel it’s the last two races on the card that interest me and I shall be watching Anmaat in the penultimate and Erevann in the final contest to show signs of progression and scope for the future.
good luck to allAt Longchamp last weekend thought Erevann won his race nicely putting it to bed with authority and I believe we will be seeing this colt as a 4yo.A late April foal (30th) for me marks his progress out as remarkable and there’s every chance he will will improve and turn into a one of the best milers around in 2023.
Although group/listed races aren’t my favourite hunting ground for selections 2yo’s are a rarer choice as I tend to stick amongst the sprinters as they tend to have shown already signs of their ability and one doesn’t usually need to evaluate how longer trips are likely to suit.The Rockingham Stakes at York today looks a good opportunity for the gelding ALPHA CAPTURE to enhance his standing.A late April foal he lost his undercarriage before even stepping onto a racecourse when running a good race but rather green showing promise.His July debut was followed up in late August with an odds on success up at Carlisle for which he didn’t need to improve.However took a major step forward next time when runner up to Cold Case at Doncaster in a very valuable contest beaten a short head.Since then the winner has won the 2yo Trophy at Redcar with the 3rd from Doncaster being the runner up and the 4th has won the Goffs Million,about £500k to the winner,over at the Curragh with the 6th at Doncaster earning 4th place too.
good luck to allNice to get back among the winners last time although I must admit to finding my adjusted method of seeking out horses that have a chance in their particular race more restrictive than I first imagined although it’s probable the time of year is playing a part as the flat winds down and opportunities become scarcer.However it’s thrown up 6 possible candidates in 5 races at Ascot today.Looking for a little value MIMIKYU e/w in the Fillies & Mares fits the bill to my mind after quite emphatically putting in her place the 2021 winner of this contest.Yes I know it was a longer trip but without the selection Eshaada would have been called a comfortable winner.Providing we don’t get a muddling gallop as she encountered at York in August it’s perfectly feasible to see her continuing to improve further,considering the form shown and the fact she was a May foal,and give her stablemate and the other talking horses a run and hopefully at least gaining a place.
good luck to allApologies as don’t have time for a full write up this morning just to say putting forward the Michael Stoute trained CRYSTAL CAPRICE as worth a look at Lingfield this afternoon.
good luck to allEased sharply in the home straight with jockey reporting the filly ‘lost her action’.
Following a display which I imagine put CANDLEFORD in many notebooks on seasonal debut to my mind he didn’t stay the 14f in his next two races and ran respectably when dropped to 12f in his first attempt at Listed level.Put up big numbers last time when third behind stablemate Hamish on ground probably not to his liking.Both turf wins have come on good to firm.Poor race positioning told on his a/w debut last Oct when 3rd behind Stay Well but made no mistake a fortnight later when back at Kempton to decisively trump Coltrane,as the only 3yo in the field,in a class 2 handicap.Having progressed well this year I’m expecting another good show this afternoon in his handlers what I believe to be vain attempt to capture the trainers title.
good luck to allWith the turf season now coming to a close rather meagre picking now until the new year when the Meydan carnival kicks into action but we do have Doncaster today where I believe ISRAR can end his season on a high note.Interesting that Sir Rumi declines a rematch over course & distance on much better terms where the selection being put forward for your consideration won comfortably (RP) with similar underfoot conditions registering career high numbers following a three & a half month lay off.As a late March foal we probably haven’t seen the best of this colt yet and group company awaits in 2023.
My selection method has always been directed toward handicaps but have attempted to adopt a similar way to conditions/group contests but feel a slightly different approach may be needed and is something I continue to work on for the future having incorporated the methodology I learned reading the books of Clive Holt.As the clocks went back last weekend now racing starts much earlier so I will sign off to watch.
good luck to allGoing to finally try an idea I’ve been turning over for more than a year now which as far as I’m aware hasn’t been tried on this site previously and will give an incentive to visit my local track more often.
Simply going to see if I can turn a profit by just using races at Dunstall Park but I must express this is an experiment and shouldn’t be treated as the horses I advance normally but I will be investing to small stakes to ‘give an interest’ and thus hopefully stopping myself from engaging in wild flights of fantasy and backing horses on a hunch.The process will wait until the final race on tonight’s card with Kim Wexler.
good luck to all
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