- This topic has 41 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
Entries…………
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2024-10-27/877720
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/old-roan-chase/winner
Solness is a horse I’m going to follow this year, but not convinced he’ll come here, and he also holds an entry at Cheltenham.
Protektorat is the obvious one, and should he come here, I don’t think you’ll get a sniff of the current 4’s. Wouldn’t look at anything else if I knew he was coming, even off that mark.
I’m having what’s probably an ill advised bet though on Ahoy Senor.
His record first time out is brutal, and I think he’s now maybe in the “unreliable” bracket, but I’ve just got a feeling that he can surprise first time out, and the 10’s just looks a bit big. Worth a small interest at those oddsAhoy Senor 10’s
The market vibes aren’t encouraging for Unexpected Party, but I’ve taken the plunge anyway at 25-1 ew
Probably one of the worst renewals in recent memory. I went for Minella Drama 7/2 WIN only, but even he has lots of question marks surrounding him. With the probable bypassing of fences and hurdles this race could turn into an extended bumper.
I am not getting involved in this race until I know all the fences are going to be jumped. If it is low sun, it’s no bet.
Ahoy Senor becomes a genuine grade 1 horse at Aintree every race. Although he has been hammered by the handicapper I still can’t go against him here.
Ahoy Senor 5/1
Stage Star goes so well fresh and is a worthy favourite but I can’t not back my underachieving pal Hitman even though his wind is probably in absolute ribbons at this stage.
Backed him to win and also 5/2 without the top 2.Only five runners but two (Stage Star and Ahoy Senor) could be best or at least far more consistent on the lead… And one (Minella Drama) best racing prominently with a clear view of his fences.
Although Stage Star is rightfully favourite, goes well fresh, goes on the ground and is pretty well handicapped, imo he can be taken on at the price because he may well be taken on for the lead. (If he does get an uncontested lead I might back him in running).. Is Stage Star a Cheltenham specialist?
Ahoy Senor is an Aintree specialist but has almost as bad a propensity for needing to be up there… And this 2 1/2 miles on this ground is likely to be on the sharp side for him… And often needs his first run of the season. However, the yard seem in a lot better form than they can be this early in the season, so there’s a fair possibility of being fit and ready. Couldn’t resist a saver, but seems friendless in the market at the moment which if continuing could prove ominous.
Hitman is one of the two hold up horses and has the help of the excellent Freddie Gingell. However, he runs very few good races which seemingly cannot be predicted. On the form of his splitting Shishkin and Protektorat he’d have a great chance. But the suspicion is even if on a going day he’ll find a reason to lose. Possibly not his fault, the amount of wind ops suggests he struggles at the business end.
Minella Drama is another inconsistent racehorse. But with him there does seem a pattern. Best fresh. Another Aintree specialist too. Third to Pic D’Dorhy in the Marsh Chase and 2nd in a more competitive Old Roan last year. McCain stable aren’t in quite as good form as Russell and Skelton, but reasonable. Now appears to be dropped to a lenient mark. He’s my biggest bet @ an average of 4.73.
My other “main bet” is Unexpected Party @ an average of 10.13. One of Skelton’s Cheltenham Festival handicap winners. Is he only going to be “fit and ready” in March?
3 lbs out of the handicap too – which does not bode well. However, he did win first time up last year and is a hold up horse which could suit this race. The Cheltenham victory was at 2m, but it came on very soft ground in a truly run race on a stiff track, so was a comparative test of stamina at that trip. Has good form on this surface in the Ayr “Future Champions Chase” at 2m4f. Yard in good form too. Is a bit of a chance, but the early market seemed to suggest he was fancied (wish I had the 25/1 All Jeff or even the 12/1 Kris) but the price has levelled off now. The late market will show a lot more. If weak I’ll be thinking about cutting my losses and laying him back! 
Value Is EverythingThere’s nothing between the 1st 4 in the betting, I’ve just got a soft
spot for Ahoy Senor 5/1 Bet365Thanks green. However, I have difficulties rating the race, in fact any race in which Hitman is the runner-up.
WD winners.
What on earth was Ahoy Senor’s jockey waiting for though. Horse would’ve won by 10L with a decent ride.
They had him bang on and Hughes gave him a positive ride , imagine they’ll be delighted with Ahor and he normally runs like a drain first time out
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
tbh Although it seemed as if Hitman was going to challenge, he never finds much so was pretty confident with Minella Drama going to the last.Looking at their previous form, the first two wouldn’t be sure of reproducing the form. Stage Star ran ok, helped by Minella jumping right, giving Cobden room. But I suspect he is best when able to lead.
Although Ahoy Senor usually needs his first run, so do most Russell horses this time of year. But she’s in much better form this season than previously. AS ran very well considering he was given plenty to do in conditions that didn’t place enough emphasis on stamina. Another quarter mile and he might have won.
Hope the handicapper does not drop Unexpected Party. Either needed his first run or better over shorter. Or – for whatever reason suspect we’ll see a much better performance come March.
Value Is EverythingNot going to lie I was mightily impressed with Ahoy’s round of jumping, especially when having to shorten up to a fence – the best I have seen him jump by a country mile.
Had Fox been a little more proactive and got him envolved a little earlier up the straight (still hadn’t moved on him until well after jumping the 2nd last when still about 4-5L behind the others) I think the result could have been different, it seemed to me first and foremost to be a ride of getting a race into him (over a trip a little short of his best) and maybe nicking a place late on if possible……..in that case job done but I do think he could have potentially won it with a little more of a positive ride.
In any case if that round of jumping is the new normal for him – he could be in the mix for some of the big races especially considering he was giving the winner 20lbs and the 2nd 12lbs.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.