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Sagara runs in the 7.20 at Goodwood tonight, and has some serious form with the principals who ran in the Coronation Cup today, based on his second to Soldier of Fortune in the Niel, and his third behind Dylan Thomas and Youmzain in the Arc.
He has no penalty, and I must admit I am confused:
1. Why is this horse currently 4.6 on Betfair? I’d have him close to odds on.
2. Why is Frankie riding the average (imo) Al Shemali?I’ve backed Sagara. I cannot believe that a horse third in the Arc and second to Soldier Of Fortune before that cannot win a race at levels with the likes of Raincoat priced at 11/2.
Yes he will probably need the run but by how much? He would have to run something like ten pounds below his Arc run for anything in this field to get near him.
Dettori rides the stablemate, why?
Can’t quite figure all this out but surely 7/2 is a ridiculous price. What price would Soldier or Getaway be for this race?
Its one of those that looks as obvious as obvious is but then you ask yourself why the horse isn’t 4/6. If he wins you can’t believe you didn’t back him if he loses you kick yourself for backing him given that his price "shouldve told you something".
Godolphin horses are generally pretty straight first time out, and don’t tend to need a run as much as some Ballydoyle horses do.
I’m trying to think what’s possibly wrong that to stop a maximum bet?
You’ve got me worried. Sagara is in my active stable in Godolphin’s 7 Stars comp, and I thought I’d pick up some easy points.
But regarding riding arrangements, why was McEvoy on Alexandros in Godolphin’s first colours in Epsom’s first race (went off favourite and finished second) when Frankie wearing white cap was on Young Pretender?
They have some in´s and outs with the debutants would be my main worry. Folk Opera won well first time outo as have others but then the Classic Trial horses bombed – Alexandros etc.
Given the price though i´m on for half a full bet
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You’ve got me worried. Sagara is in my active stable in Godolphin’s 7 Stars comp, and I thought I’d pick up some easy points.
But regarding riding arrangements, why was McEvoy on Alexandros in Godolphin’s first colours in Epsom’s first race (went off favourite and finished second) when Frankie wearing white cap was on Young Pretender?
Because Dettori could not do the weight on the first string.
I did see the Weekender notes they worked together last week, though if I remember correctly it didn’t say one was ‘best’ or ‘impressed’.
Of course, 3 lb. difference in the weights. Thanks, Pinza, mystery solved. Same thing doesn’t apply to Sagara/Al Shemali, so what’s going on? Sagara surely should win this.
Of course, 3 lb. difference in the weights. Thanks, Pinza, mystery solved. Same thing doesn’t apply to Sagara/Al Shemali, so what’s going on? Sagara surely should win this.
I know horses aren’t machines etc etc and anything can happen in sport but if Sagara doesn’t win this race tonight I’d want to hear a pretty good reason why and I’d take some convincing. Surely to god if anything is worth anything he’d beat these on three legs.
Sagara has been gelded which suggests he has been difficult since he last ran in the Arc. Take a look at all of his runs last year and he’s a lazy creature that gives his jockey no assistance. Under such circumstances I imagine he would stink the gallops out at home and wouldn’t go past a 60 rated handicapper if he worked with one. My theory is the horse has probably shown nothing on the gallops at home and that is why Frankie rides something else.
I’m not sure either he wasn’t a bit flattered in the Arc too, but even if you take his run at face value, McEvoy and Goodwood don’t strike as the ideal combination to get the best out of him.
Sagara has been gelded which suggests he has been difficult since he last ran in the Arc. Take a look at all of his runs last year and he’s a lazy creature that gives his jockey no assistance. Under such circumstances I imagine he would stink the gallops out at home and wouldn’t go past a 60 rated handicapper if he worked with one. My theory is the horse has probably shown nothing on the gallops at home and that is why Frankie rides him.
I’m not sure either he wasn’t a bit flattered in the Arc too, but even if you take his run at face value, McEvoy and Goodwood don’t strike as the ideal combination to get the best out of him.
Before the race David – Do you think this horse will get beaten tonight?
If it was just his Arc run I’d tend to be a bit cautious of it any horse can run one race above itself but before that he was second to Soldier Of Fortune in his Arc trial. Thats two races on the bounce where his form is (at pound for length terms) ten lengths better than his opposition tonight.
I can see him running below his peak form certainly, even 5 or 6 lengths but he should still theoretically win by three or four lengths.
I simply can’t believe that a horse with his level of form can get beat in a listed race where there is no standout opponent running below his usual grade unless you count Dragon Dancer and to be honest I’d struggle to back Dragon Dancer in any grade.
Truthfully Ian, I don’t know and haven’t had a bet in the race but if forced to have one, I’d lay him for a place.
Truthfully Ian, I don’t know and haven’t had a bet in the race but if forced to have one, I’d lay him for a place.
Fair enough mate.
Not even in the frame.
The authorities need to look at this race and the running of Sagara. I cannot believe that all is right here.
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