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Bosranic, just one small thing – I’ve noticed on a couple of threads you mentioning TB giving Nozic 23 lbs. It was only 18 in fact (not a huge difference, granted, but thought I’d point it out!)
I really think the GC is a huge ask for Tidal Bay right now and the Ryan Air would suit him down to the ground. The Pillar ill be interesting but on Friday’s evidence I’m not sure he’s got enough to mix it with the like of Kauto, Denman and Exotic Dancer over 3 miles plus
You’re right. It was 18lbs, but didn’t Harry Skelton take a further five off?
There has been a strong correlation in recent years between the Paddy Power and the Ryanair winner. Imperial Commander looks a very good bet at around the 16-20/1 mark. Presumably his stable will be in better form come March.
Thanks, YHF.
5lbs wouldn’t have made that much difference, but still a bloody good effort from the horse.
Nozic was a well handicapped animal in my opinion and duly won the race he’s promised to win.
Imperial Commander looks the most likely winner for me.
Occasionally i get this feeling that a huge part of the "Jigsaw" has fallen into place, and today i get it about "Exotic Dancer winning the Ryanair"
even if "Voy Por" runs in the same race which is common with Mr Ogdens horses "Exotic"at Cheltenham is Like "Arsenal at Highbury in the Champions league"!Right now there is no decision being made where Ed runs ad the won’t until after Denman runs.
I’m amazed they still make Tiday Bay so short, Will he get 2m4f round Cheltenham in a fast run race? He had it all his own way at Carlsle which is a damn tough course and has a stiffer uphill finish than Cheltenham but going all out is a bit different.
Noland I suposse deserves to be near enough favourite but you have to ask the question, has the wind operation really improved him that much. I very mch dobt it
I have never thought of VPU as a good 2 mile champion and I am begining to wonder if it ever really was his trip.
He looked the business last seaon when beating Master Minded albeit MM never ran a a message but now he has gone and finished 3rd to Kauto Star in the Kauto Star,
This could be his best trip and he must be on the short list to winning this’
I still can’t see past the Irish horse Thyne Again despite his recent defeat over 2m1f. I don’t think that means didly and if and when he comes to Cheltenham I reckon he will be the one the all have to beat………I really like this horse, he does run below form sometmes but when he is right he is awesome to watch,,,,,,,,,,travels well and jumps well even if oddly and has a terrific engine in him. He should be much stronger now a year on from the Arkle and only needs to show natural improvementto be in the shake up………Backed him alrady so I am hoping they run him as I have read different things from different people and it’s by no means certain he will turn up.
I’m not normally an ante post punter but the 16/1 about IC which was available on BF was too big and so i’ve had a punt. I think i’ll probably continue to back him along with Kasbah Bliss and Hurricane Fly.
I really feel that provided Twiston Davies gets his string back into form he has a huge chance. Taking his run at Kempton literally you would write him off but he travelled well for a long way before fading quickly up the home straight. This is partially attributable to stable form; partially his poor record at the distance (He doesn’t look to stay).
Back on his favourite track on decent ground over a shorter trip I honestly think he will be shorter come the day and difficult to beat.
Noland is a worthy favourite on the back of this years performances but this is wide open.
Aragorn, I thought the KG run pointed out his chances in the Ryanair, rather than otherwise. I backed him for it before and after Kempton.
Occasionally i get this feeling that a huge part of the "Jigsaw" has fallen into place, and today i get it about "Exotic Dancer winning the Ryanair"
even if "Voy Por" runs in the same race which is common with Mr Ogdens horses "Exotic"at Cheltenham is Like "Arsenal at Highbury in the Champions league"!I have never thought of VPU as a good 2 mile champion and I am begining to wonder if it ever really was his trip.
I’m pretty sure it wasn’t Fist. He was a poor two mile Champion ratings wise but his rating has soard from 160’s to 170’s since he’s been stepped up in trip both at Aintree at the end of last season and in the King George. People question whether or not Voy Por stayed at Kempton but it was a run of a far higher standard than his Champion Chase wins.
The weakest division at the moment by the way (IMO) is the two mile hurdle division. It took a horse with a general 162 / 163 rating to win last years Champion Hurdle which is embarassingly low to be honest. The emergence of Binocular and Celestial Halo have breathed new life into it now with Binocular in particular an easy 170’s horse which is much more like it. The other weak division is staying hurdlers. Its there for the taking by the scruff of the neck if something like Punchestowns can make the leap.
My top ratings from last season :
2M Chase – Master Minded 182
3M + Chase – Kauto Star 182, Denman 179,
3M Hurdle – Inglis Drever 168
2M Hudle – Sizing Europe 168 (AIG), Katchit 162 (167 in CH)I’m with Fists on Thyne Again for this one. He’s the value bet at 16/1 for me. There’s nothing between him and Noland on the Arkle running and I happen to think he’d appreciate the step up in trip every bit as much as Noland has.
He was due to run in the John Durkan over 2m4 but he missed the race after scoping badly. The 2m1 at Leopardstown was the only option for him over Christmas and he ran very well considering the trainer was quite pessimistic about his chances in the lead up to the race.
I remember it was touch and go whether they went to Cheltenham last year but considering how well he ran in the Arkle I would be surprised if he wasn’t aimed at the festival. They are keen to step him up in trip and there’d be little point running in the Champion Chase if Master Minded turns up so the Ryanair would seem to be the logical destination for him.
Aragorn, I thought the KG run pointed out his chances in the Ryanair, rather than otherwise. I backed him for it before and after Kempton.
I’m not alone then!!
Im thinking VPU for this at 9/2 could well be one of the bets of the festival in hindisght, he is always at his best at cheltenham, looks to love 2m4f and ran with credit in the King George which looked a stamina test that saw most of the opposition beaten some way from. There are others who tick boxes but VPU ticks every box for me and he is the one the others have to beat IMO.
Im thinking VPU for this at 9/2 could well be one of the bets of the festival in hindisght, he is always at his best at cheltenham, looks to love 2m4f and ran with credit in the King George which looked a stamina test that saw most of the opposition beaten some way from. There are others who tick boxes but VPU ticks every box for me and he is the one the others have to beat IMO.
I agree.
I think he will take the world of beating in the Ryanair.
He possibly goes to Doncaster at the end of the month for a 2 mile handicap though, might just be as a prep run for Cheltenham, but i personally am suprised he is dropping back to 2 miles again.
Noland out then…bit of a shake up due. Probably slightly increases the chances of VPU and Tidal Bay ending up here.
Bit of a kick in the nuts for my ten to follow but think VPU would have beaten him anyway.
This is really disappointing, i really fancied Noland’s chances.
Ah well Voy Por it is then.
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