Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[Mathematician Betting]

Thanks Rob

I will now head off and rejig my spreadsheet to
calculate the right answers.

It is useful to have a modern times example race to work from.
The 1977 ones in the pdf are not available in the RPost etc.

re “There is a case for using Aberama Gold’s closest recent placing to rate him though I stick to the letter of the method”

Right now the letter of the method is what I am after as well.
I can try and do it myself. Your own posts here are a benefit and
can act as a sort of marking off my homework.

From said base however I can customise and tweak.
Take two measure horses and then form an average or weighted average rating?
Well I guess in theory that is one route of exploration.
A nice one for those who like to do double the work each day :)

Good luck over the weekend

Mick

[robnorth]

Happy to discuss any issues via PM.

Good results today with Carrytheone joint top and Vintage Clarets well in the mix at Catterick. To pull upcoming ratings to most recent post:

SUNDAY OCTOBER 20

Kempton
3.25 Bourbali 152; Guy 147; Holly 147; Persian Time 143

Sedgefield
4.20 Jesuitique 162; Good time Jonny 155; Hauraki Gulf 149
4.55 Hajey 134; Finisk River 129; The Navigator 120

MONDAY OCTOBER 21

Plumpton
3.55 War Lord 134; Prince Quali 133; Menaggio 130

Pontefract
3.45 Thursday’s Child 101; The Eyes Have It 99; Tropical Island 98

[robnorth]

Perth have an October meeting scheduled for Tuesday, their first meeting in this month for a good few years. Prospects don’t look good though with some standing water on the track and heavy rain forecast.

Newcastle opening class 2 contest is notably short of anything with decent recent form.

TUESDAY OCTOBER 22

Perth
3.30 Whatdeawant 152; Shallow River 151; Inox Allen 145

Exeter
3.53 High Game Royal 132; Ballymcgroarty Boy 129; King Of The Lake 129; Tap N Go Leo 127; Lutinebella 127
4.28 An Tailliur 146; Tea Clipper 144; Rose Of Arcadia 142; Jupiter Allen 139

Newcastle
4.15 Marhaba The Champ 105; King Lear 104; La Pulga 104
5.55 Lucky Man 103; Badri 101; Jenever 101; Muker 100; Arecibo 100

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23

Newmarket
4.05 Twirling 111; Mallavelly 100; Ziggy’s Phoenix 99; Zapphire 98

Fontwell
3.40 Colours On Canvas 135; Whatsupwithyou 135; Inca De Lafayette 132

Kempton
7.40 Fantasy Believer 105; Mortlake 105; Tempus 104; Gloucestershire 104; Gorak 101
8.10 Duke Of Oxford 105; Red Flyer 100; Scottish Anthem 97; Cool Party 97

[robnorth]

Thrusday’s Ludlow novice chase ratings are based totally on hurdle form so a note of caution there.

THURSDAY OCTOBER 24

Ludlow
5.05 Madaket 146; Ask Brewster 130; Inoui Machin 127

Carlisle
3.30 Thereisnodoubt 135; Forged Well 130; Coventry 127; Eire Street 126

[robnorth]

Plenty of handicap action over the weekend and it’s a busy Friday both jumps and flat. Be very wary of the opener at Cheltenham as a lot here don’t have handicap form to measure.

We used to attend the Cheltenham meeting when it was midweek and I’d go to the Newbury meeting as well. These days it’s a competitive card at Kelso on Saturday.

FRIDAY OCTOBER 25

Cheltenham
1.15 Anyharminasking 148; Royal Margaux 147; Letterston Lily 146; In The Air 133
2.25 Calico 165; Madara 162; Matata 161; Scarface 160; Dancing On My Own 160
3.35 St Denis’s Well 147; Atlanta Brave 139; The Newset One 137; Are U Wise to That 134; Mole Court 132; Planned Paradise 132
4.45 Fils De Roi 145; Fiercely Proud 138; Oslo 136; Aucunrisque 134; Jetronic 134

Doncaster
2.43 Mr King 105; Bennetot 104; Hafeet Alain 102; Sierra Blanca 102; Apiarist 102; Bajan Bandit 102
3.18 Wodao 110; Eminny 99; Altmore 96

Newbury
2.51 United Approach 99; Executive Decision 94; Kodi Lion 93; Mercian Warrior 85
3.26 Cajetan 96; Knebworth 95; Thunder Blue 94; Capote’s Dream 94
4.01 Silent Glance 109; Calvert 102; Flash Bardot 96; Torcello 95

[robnorth]

SUNDAY OCTOBER 26

Cheltenham
1.10 Andys Flame 158; Will Carver 152; Weveallbeencaught 152; Riskintheground 147
2.20 Vanillier 165; Senior Chief 162; Captain Morgs 162; Does He Know 161
2.55 Cruz Control 165; Supreme Gift 163; Secret Trix 162; Gowel Road 159

Newbury
2.34 Yokohama 100; Maggie’s Way 96; Nap Hand 93; Odin Legacy 93

Doncaster
2.05 Jer Batt 116; The Bell Conductor 115; Venture Capital 115; Solar Aclaim 114; Good Earth 113
3.15 Laafi 110; Mr Alan 107; Euchen Glen 103; Promethean 103; The Reverend 102
4.25 Persuasion 108; Glenfinnan 106; Akkadian Thunder 106; Roberto Caro 105; Crown Estate 102

Kelso
3.55 Famous Bridge 159; Elvis Mail 154; Young Buster 153; Watergrange Jack 153
4.30 Pay The River 137; El Borracho 136; Cannock Park 136

[robnorth]

SUNDAY OCTOBER 27

Aintree
12.40 Invictus World 137; Chris Cool 137; City Derby 132
1.15 Moveit Like Minnie 142; Densworth 139; Hidalgo De L’Isle 138
1.50 Ahoy Senor 182; Unexpected Party 177; Hitman 175
2.25 Torn And Frayed 148; Fortescue 146; Cap Du Nord 140
3.35 Ballygeary 149; Hurricane Ali 143; Kamsinas 142

Wincanton
2.42 Presentandcounting 153; Numitor 150; Le Ligerien 145
3.15 Lieutenant Rocco 149; My Silver Lining 146; Quick Draw 144

[gr1980]

Nice winner with Laafi at 33/1!

[robnorth]

Yes, a nice well handicapped sleeper that clicked with conditions to suit.

MONDAY OCTOBER 28

Redcar
3.40 Titian 102; Debora’s Dream 96; Poet’s Dawn 93; Thunder Roar 91

[robnorth]

TUESDAY OCTOBER 29

Chepstow
3.10 Hititi 162; Can You Call 141; Do Your Job 139; Sageburg County 139; Classic King 137

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 30

Nottingham
3.08 Blind Beggar 96; Makanah 94; Moulin Booj 94

Newton Abbot
3.30 Astronomic View 144; Shallow River 143; Canty Bay 133; Bertie Wooster 129

[robnorth]

THURSDAY OCTOBER 31

Stratford
2.05 Walking On Air 146; Envious Editor 145; L’Eau Du Sud 141

Southwell
6.15 Silver Samurai 106; Run Boy Run 98; Noodle Mission 97; Cruyff Turn 97

[robnorth]

Bits and bobs racing on Friday. I think this is the first the Newmarket Challenge Whip which is always been a bit of a novelty contest. That said, should it not be the Newmarket Challenge Pro-Cush?

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 1

Newmarket
4.02 Loving Look 86; On The River 82; First Officer 82

Wetherby
1.50 Welsh Charger 133; Foster’sisland 130; Singapore Trip 127
3.00 Midnight river 167; Galop De Chasse 166; Genois 159

[robnorth]

Top rated broke even bar the odd fraction over October, but most of the heavy lifting was done by 33/1 winner Laafi. Since start of September top rated remains in profit with returns of 105.6% from around 15% winners. Tellingly results by confining bets to those top rated at 10/1 or less SP are still good, 27 wins from 124 (21.7%) returning 147.17 to a 1pt level stake (118.6%), solid returns than can be bettered by bagging best prices.

Year goes on swfitly, I’m off to Ayr for a decent card and jumps racing dominates. .

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 2

Newmarket
2.17 Mythical Guest 100; Waiting All Night 99; Mighty Nebula 96; Spirit Catcher 95

Wetherby
1.15 Choosethenews 100; William Cody 100; King’s Threshold 129
3.32 V Twelve 134; Spirits Bay 133; Alnilam 131

Ayr
1.58 Glinger Flame 141; Haute Estime 138; Faithfulflyer 137
2.29 White Rhino 151; Whistle Stop Tour 138; Special Rate 137
3.39 Gua Du Large 146; Doyen Du Bar 142; Park Annonciade 141

Ascot
1.30 Samarrive 150; Bhaloo 146; What Path 145
2.05 Madara 163; Kotmask 163; Malystic 162; Saint Segal 160
3.15 Endless Escape 141; Fiercely Proud 139; Our Champ 138; Secret Squirrel 138
3.45 Solo 160; Two For Gold 158; Mylesfromwicklow 154

Southwell
6.50 Navello 106; Havana Pusey 106; Buccabay 105; Jubilee Walk 104
7.25 Storm Star 109; Silver Sword 107; Kalamunda 104

[robnorth]

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 3

Carlisle
12.48 Uncle Bert 147; Malaita 143; President Scottie 139
2.18 Dunnet Head 143; Bingoo 139; Fingal’s Hill 138; Young Jack 137
3.23 Flower Of Scotland 149; Jet Legs 142; Houston Texas 140; Brandy McQueen 139

[robnorth]

MONDAY NOVEMBER 4

Kempton
1.50 Cuban Tiger 110; Havanagreattime 109; Rhoscolyn 106; Heathcliff 106
2.57 Sonnerie Power 103; Ocean Heights 100; Parramount 100

Plumpton
2.30 Sacre Coeur 134; Whydah Gally 133; I See You Well 132
3.05 Yellow Star 154; Irish Hill 148; Forever William 148

[Author]

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