Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

Forgot to post today’s ratings having been caught with domestic stuff! On to Saturday…

SATURDAY OCTOBER 5

Newmarket
1.30 Cannodled 106; Wisper 104; Queen Of Soldiers 103; Warda Jamila 99; Yorkshire Lady 99
3.15 Ayyab 101; Chorus 99; Cabrera 98; Big Bear Hug 98; Tafsir 96
5.00 Princess alex 97; Mercury Day 95; Madame De Sevigne 94; Mereside Diva 94

Redcar
4.30 Zapphire 104; Catton Lady 101; Empire Of light 91; Danielsflyer 88

Ascot
3.35 Brewing 112; Bopedro 111; Qirat 111; Carrytheone 110; Mirsky 110; Germanic 110
4.45 Badri 107; Faustus 105; Alcazan 105; Dream Composer 102; Woolhampton 102

Southwell
6.15 High Order 109; Fouroneohfever 102; The Goat 99; Educate 99

Wolverhampton
7.30 Paws for Thought 101; Aramram 97; Azure Angel 96; Intervention 96

[robnorth]

A cracking two mile chase at Kelso tomnorrow. A mark of the current stregth of two mile chase in Scotland and the North is that Tommy’s Oscar beat Traprain Law at Ayr in the spring with runners from the stables of Nicholls, Henderson, Mullins and Skelton behind them in the 6 runner field. Tommy’s Oscar doesn’t figure high in the ratings, but Ann Hamilton’s have hit the ground running this autumn.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 6

Uttoxeter
3.35 Jatiluwih 153; Bells Of Peterboro 142; Supremely West 139

Kelso
3.50 Kansas City Star 167; Guy 161; Traprain Law 160; Malystic 159

[robnorth]

Crowing about September results was not a clever move, results have been below par in early October!

TUESDAY OCTOBER 8

Leicester
4.25 Power Of Destiny 96; Galyx 96; Kotari 94

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 9

Ludlow
4.05 Topofthecotswolds 143; Presentandcounting 139; Sacre Couer 139

[robnorth]

A meagre diet of one race a day before the quantity takes off from Friday.

THURSDAY OCTOBER 10

Exeter
3.33 Opening Bid 133; hystery Bere 132; Kauto The King 131

[robnorth]

FRIDAY OCTOBER 11

Newmarket
4.10 Imperial Sovereigh 113; Goodwood Odyssey 112; Kamboo 112; Spaceport 110; Trouville 108; Give It To Me OJ 108

York
1.30 Look Back Smiling 113; Zealot 112; Theoryofeverything 111; Rhythm Master 109; Alzahir 109; Barley 109
2.40 Filibustering 106; Caprilo 101; Master Builder 95; Forest Gate 94
3.10 Do It Now 115; Teej A 107; End Of Story 103; Fuji Mountain 98
3.45 Aberama Gold 102; Irish Nectar 102; Mini Magna 102; Vantheman 101; Good Earth 101; Moonstone Boy 101

Chepstow
3.50 Certainly Red 142; Wayfinder 142; Amateur 136; Copperhead 134
4.25 Destroythevidence 154; Lord Snootie 143; Beachcomber 143; Isaac Des Obeaux 141
5.00 Gin Coco 150; Onemorefortheroad 137; Starman 137

[robnorth]

When even Hexham have got two Class 3’s you know it’s a busy day! Interesting one at the top of the Cesarewitch figures…

The 3.45 at Hexham is interesting with a number of talented Northern novices making their chase debuts.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 12

Newmarket
3.40 Bashful Boy 125; Queenstown 116; Sixandahlf 116; Dawn Rising 115; Spirit Mixer 115; Manxman 115

York
2.05 Dual Identity 114; Paddy The Squire 114; Bennetot 112; ; Bolster 111; Have Secret 111
2.40 Tinto 118; King’s Lynn 117; Room Service 116; Sergeant Wilko 116; Germanic 114
4.30 Torcello 110; Zimmermann 103; Corsican Caper 102; Gibside 101; Emiyn 100

Chepstow
2.10 Roaring Legend 145; Through The Ages 145; Liari 144; Majestic Jameela 140
3.20 Afadil 153; Take No Chances 152; Tightenourbelts 148; Josh The Boss 148; Crebilly 147
4.00 Saint Segal 170, Ga Law 165; Jetoile 165; La Dominiale 164
4.35 Stolen Silver 172; Toss Again 167; Pull Again Green 165; Are U Wish To That 162

Hexham
3.45 Dare to Shoot 146; Cannock Park 144; Choose A Cooper 139
4.20 Our Sam 146; Supremely West 145; Velasco 129; Dinons 123

[robnorth]

SUNDAY OCTOBER 13

Goodwood
3.00 Wodao 102; Baldomero 99; Alcazan 93
4.45 Rhoscolyn 112; Whip Cracker 105; Arkhalia Flynn 105; Dashing Darcey 102

Ffos Las
3.20 Knockanore 142; BoosterBob 136; Just Over Land 135; Asta La Pasta 135
3.55 Black Hawk Eagle 147; Wewillgowithplanb 146; FiveonFive 143; Carbon King 143

MONDAY OCTOBER 14

Musselburgh
3.50 Nibras Angel 93; Powdering 93; Princess Alex 93; Mereside Diva 92

[robnorth]

TUESDAY OCTOBER 15

Market Rasen
4.05 Game On For Glory 140; Gold Link 140; Mylesformwicklow 136

Leicester
5.03 Encourageable 97; Pearle D’Or 96; Transitioning 96; Executive Decision 95

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16

Wetherby
2.30 Grey Diamond 141; Sir Tivo 141; Primoz 136
3.30 Jagwar 140; Envious Editor 139; Garde Des Champs 136; Jet Plane 135
4.00 Tintintin 156; Prairie Wolf 154; Whizz Kid 147

Nottingham
3.45 Mr alan 103; Laafi 102; Heat Of Passion 102; Winston’s Tipple 100
4.50 Fantasy Master 101; Solar Aclaim 98; Hiya Maite 97; Never Dark 92

THURSDAY OCTOBER 17

Carlisle
1.57 Western Zephyr 143; Parisencore 137; The Churchill Lad 133
3.42 Snipe 139; Prince Des Fichaux 138; Inis Oirr 137

Southwell
7.00 Cloud Cover 109; Paborus 107; Hightimeyouwon 106; Documenting 104

[robnorth]

FRIDAY OCTOBER 18

Uttoxeter
2.45 Holy Joe Smoke 152; Malaita 147; Ike Sport 145; Autumn Return 137
3.55 Willaston 154; Ballybegg 154; Pyramid Place 149

Haydock
4.05 Woven 97; Hour By Hour 94; Mercurial 91; Drama 89
4.40 Autumn Festival 97; Spirit Catcher 95; Pearl Eye 91; On The river 90

[Mathematician Betting]

Thanks for the interesting thread Rob.
I am new here today but have read
through about 19 of 77 pages so far.
A good lesson in hard work and dog
with a bone like Perseverance.

You have inspired me to go hunt out a few old
Tom Ainslie Books.
Dog earned old copies of The Compleat Horseplayer &
Ainslie’s Complete Guide To Thoroughbred Racing
are now winging their way to me from Amazon.

Always nice when the postman delivers something
that is not a bill.

Best wishes
Mick

[robnorth]

Thanks Mick.

I’ve got any amount of racing books on my shelves, many of which I re-read on a regular basis. This thread came about when during Covid lockdown I dug out a dog-eared booklet from the late 1970s, The Compleat Handicapper, produced by a long defunct Brighton based publisher called PFA Publications. Method is much easier to work these days as all ratings are published and form can be found very quickly. Back in the day it was necessary to wade thorough the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and/or Racing Calendar to cross-reference ratings, so specialisation was essential. Results have been variable but I like the mathematical side and it does show up horses from strong form races that are well favoured at the weights. The method concentrated on rating the top 6 in the Sporting Life forecast which by default cut out no hopers, but I’ve included all those placed in the first 4 in either of hteir last two races. A rough filter granted, but it seems to improve returns.

If anyone is interested I’ve transcribed the original book and adapted for modern day circumstances. Happy to forward a pdf copy of both the original text and my adapted version of the method if anyone was to message me.

September was really good, but results have fallen a bit flat in October. With Newton Abbot underwater there are only 2 qualifying handicaps on Saturday and I couldn’t find anything in Ireland to bump up the numbers.

Aberama Gold looks very interesting at Catterick with conditions in his favour. Just a pity the feature contest at this meeting isn’t slated for terrestrial TV coverage. The Ascot contest is close with the early closing meaning weights reflect the strong form of the 7 furlong contest at the last meeting. I default to the higher wieght when splitting joint rated horses but this is very close. Handicapper has had a season to get hold of these.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 19

Catterick
4.45 Aberama Gold 108; Wen Moon 107; Vintage Clarets 106; Glorious Angel 103

Ascot
4.35 Carrytheone 121; Bopedro 121; Star Of Orion 121; Qirat (res 1) 121; Akkadian Thunder (Res 3) 121; Toimy son 120; Godwinson 120; Holloway Boy 119; Alaskan Gold 119

[Mathematician Betting]

Thanks Rob.
Message is away to you.

re your comment “Handicapper has had a season to get hold of these.”

Do you maintain any easy to interrogate longer term stats?
If so do you spot any repeated time of year / seasonality trends
in rating performance?

Cheers
Mick

[Mathematician Betting]

Also I am now trying to learn the base method.
Test 1 to prove my misunderstanding is to ensure that when
I rate a horse my numbers end up not matching those you publish here.

Test 1 has been passed with flying colors. :)

I picked out Aberama Gold as my first test.

Most probably I just have a malformed equation.
However I wanted to double check a core fork in the road
with regards to the issue of selecting the measure horse.

For Aberama Gold would the measure horse be

A – Vince L’Amour because that was the winner of the last handicap race contested by Aberama Gold
or
B – Blue Storm because it was the winner of the most recent handicap race in which Aberama Gold finished in the top 4?

I was thinking A and that top 4 consideration is a more global filtering issue that dictates which horses you bother to rate in the first place?

But when I picked B and included a 1 lb weight for age allowance I ended up with the same 108 answer as you did. That however could be the random chance of two wrongs combining to make a right.

Feedback appreciated

Cheers
Mick

[robnorth]

Hello Mick

Can clarify in detail via private message if you wish, but happy to clarify your example.

Vince L’Amour was the winner of Aberama Gold’s previous race so is the ‘measure horse’. He ran off 77 that day and has a current rating (as taken from the Racing Post) of 82. Aberama Gold ran off 85 that day, if we add the 5lbs for the winner’s improvement that gives Aberama Gold a figure of 90. Carrying 8-10 today so add 18 points for the weight below 10-0 gives a rating of 108.

There is a case for using Aberama Gold’s closest recent placing to rate him though I stick to the letter of the method and use the most recent handicap race. I advise you to try things out and see what works for you, and the fact that you are considering the form through Blue Storm suggests you are already giving it thought anyway.

Incidentally for jump races where ever possible I use latest handicap chase to rate chasers and latest handicap hurdle to rate hurdlers. However, where a hurdler is making his chase debut I do use the handicap hurdle form, but do make a mental ‘be careful’ note.

Another tip. Be wary when using an Irish trained horse as a measure for a GB handicap. THe BHA handicapper doesn’t always update the ratings for Irish horses. However you can find the BHA handicapper does give a performance rating so I check that on the BHA site and use it as the current handicap mark. There’s also a discrepancy between Irish and BHA marks at the mid to lower end in jump racing, but that’s another can of worms and merits a thread on its own!

SUNDAY OCTOBER 20

Kempton
3.25 Bourbali 152; Guy 147; Holly 147; Persian Time 143

Sedgefield
4.20 Jesuitique 162; Good time Jonny 155; Hauraki Gulf 149
4.55 Hajey 134; Finisk River 129; The Navigator 120

[robnorth]

MONDAY OCTOBER 21

Plumpton
3.55 War Lord 134; Prince Quali 133; Menaggio 130

Pontefract
3.45 Thursday’s Child 101; The Eyes Have It 99; Tropical Island 98

[Author]

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