- This topic has 1,170 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 1 day, 18 hours ago by
.
-
Posts
-
After a frustrating week winners and near misses flew in early this afternoon, highlight being smooth winner Island Brave at 33/1 with Dubai Mirage 3/1 and Chil Chil 7/2 winning comfortably. On the contrary Northernpowerhouse swooped to lead right on the line in a 3 way photo at 9/1. Hyanna just lost out the other way, closing fast and just held at 22/1 at Ascot. T
SUNDAY AUGUST 9
Salisbury
2.15 Mr Kiki 109; Konchek 105; Poets Dance 104
2.50 Salayel 102; Indie Angel 101; Separate 96Thirsk
1.55 Autumn Flight 102; Duke Of Firenze 98; Watchable 97
2.30 Presidential 100; Swissterious 99; East Street Revue 96Windsor
4.20 Lucky’s Dream 96; Baryshnikov 92; Soghan 88A blank from the top rated though 2nd and 3rd rated winners at 3/1, , 100/30 and 4/1 would have eked out a marginal profit covering the top 3 in their races.
Results to date:
Top Rated – Selections 272 Wins 44 Returns 379.28
5lbs clear – Selections 65 Wins 12 Returns 100.73Strike rate overall is in the range of that expected. I’ve been betting on Betfair and showing a decent margin since commencing operations at the start of July. Tends to be runs on non winners followed by a blitz that boosts the profit, but my most successful betting endeavours have tended to be in the 15 to 20% strike rate area so it suits my mind set.
Overall top have provided 91 winners from 252 races which is 36% but nearer the target of 40% if non-runners and withdrawn are taken into account.
Fairly quiet this coming week before picking up on Friday.
MONDAY AUGUST 10
Southwell
2.15 Croco Bay 147; Adrrastos 147; Azzuri 143Chester
5.30 Baby Steps 96; Gallipoli 94; Spirit Warning 93
7.00 Restorer 115; Desert Icon 113; Palacvecino 111
8.00 Edinburgh Castle 87; Arabist 85; Gabrial The One 84A day of more hope than confidence. I may site the day out betting wise as Southwell chase is tight, all rated within 7lbs, and Chester is not my favourite place for betting as a tight course so dependent on draw and luck in running.
No top rated winners but a couple of winners identified in the close rated. I backed Gallipoli to win on the basis of being a well weighted prominent runner drawn on the inside. Baby Steps was similar but drawn wider and I got it right, though bet would be reversed if Baby Steps was drawn near the rail. Palavecino just held top rated Restorer in the 7.30.
Sadly veteran Croco Bay took a fatal fall at Southwell, which took the edge off the day.
Thunderstorms forecast for Scotland tomorrow so could be a real influencing factor but here are the ratings for two races. both races look very open contests.
TUESDAY AUGUST 11
Perth
5.40 No Hiding Place 126; Craigmor 125; Chocolat Noir 125
7.10 Red Giant 142; Forecast 139; Boy’s On Tour 137A blank for the speculative top rates, but both winners at Perth were in the top three.
Just one race for tomorrow Wednesday August 12:
Kempton
3.20 Split Down South 102; Lost Surprise 101; Love Powerful 101
A strong looking trio at least 7lbs clear of the remainder.Split Down South ran a pretty decent race into 4th place and should progress from the return from lay-off. The race was won easily by progressive type in May Sonic and illustrates the way such an animal can come in under the radar of this method. That said my target is value on well weighted horses so not going to catch everything.
Once again only the one qualifying race tomorrow Thursday August 13:
Salisbury
2.50 Point In Time 106; Kepala 106; Ghaziyah 100A blank at Salisbury, Point Of Time was a non-runner but has an interesting opportunity over further on Saturday.
FRIDAY AUGUST 14
Pontefract
2.20 Star In The Making 98; Treble Treble 98; Oakenshield 96; Breath Of Joy 96
4.20 Mankayan 95; Archie Perkins 95; Matewan 91Chester
3.10 Sir Maximilian 98; Almufti 97; Arcanada 97; Lincoln Park 97
4.40 Redarna 103; Strait Of Hormuz 99; Tonyx 98Run of the mill midweek stuff in the last few days and no success for the ratings. A couple of today’s winners were rated within a couple of pounds, Breath Of joy showed up joint-3rd, but nothing to latch onto. At the expected strike rate it’s best to take a long term view so not too disheartened.
More on Sunday that Saturday this week, but 5 races to look at tomorrow and one or two at decent odds that could make a mark:
SATURDAY AUGUST 15
Newmarket
2.40 Blackcastle Storm 117; Dancinginthewoods 114; Black Caspian 102
5.00 Point In time 108; Alemagna 106; Expressionism 101Newbury
2.25 Orbaan 110; Kasbaan 107; Afaak 106Doncaster
4.00 Breanski 112; Magical Wish 109; Fleeting Prince 109
4.35 Yimou 102; Fairy Stories 99; Jack The Truth 98Some success from top-3s today and a few near misses. Dancinginthewoods was a close second at 14/1, result remaining unaltered after a stewards enquiry but it was more the selections wonky steering that cost the race. He will probably win a race soon but is not straightforward.
2nd rated Magical Wish obliged at 18/1 given a profit across all selections. Orbaan was stymied by the softened going and appears to need it quicker.
Believe In Love inherited third rated and obliged…, but nothing to shout about with the field reduced to four runners!Going is likely to have a bearing tomorrow, particularly at Newbury, so I’ll give more than top 3:
SUNDAY AUGUST 16
Market Rasen
1.40 Ingleby Hollow 153; Diamond Gait 149; Capone 134; Escapability 134
2.15 Copper West 156; Ready And Able 149; Potterman 143; Beau Du Brizais 142; More Buck’s 142Ripon
2.05 Fred 96; Garden Oasis 95; Hortzadar 92; Oasis Prince 90; Fennaan 90
3.15 Citron Major 115; Deputise 114; Staxton 114; Abel Handy 113; Abate 113; Motagally 112
(Motagally is my favourite here as long as there is no rain, otherwise Abate looks solid)
3.50 Akamanta 97; Euro Implosion 95; Rory And Me 92Newbury
2.25 Blackcastle Storm 118; De Vegas Kid 105; Mottrib 105; Impressor 101; Cold Stare 98; Tranchee 98; Powertrain 98
3.00 Chicago Doll 104; Enhanced 99; Cosmelli 96; Frontispiece 92Another no show day from the top rated, though Staxton was thereabouts in the ratings for the Great St Wilfrid. It’s been really quiet for winners this week, but I suspect the change of going in places hasn’t helped. Top rated selections still well ahead since start of June though and it’s the long term that counts.
Akamanto was a decent second at Ripon but that elusive winner escapes us for now!
Top Rated: Selections 292 Wins 44 Returns 379.28
5lbs clear: Selections 67 Wins 12 Returns 100.73
Top 3: Races 276 Wins 101MONDAY AUGUST 17
Uttoxeter
3.10 Ballon Onabudget 137; Fleeting Visit 137; Black Buble 135Good to see your ratings dig out Staxton.
Not betting till York, but still looking, and I thought Fleeting Visit looked interesting too.
So did I and was rewarded at 9/1 (I got 13.81 Betfair SP). Key point here was ‘trying a new trip’ which I turn into a positive and trust the trainer. In this case it’s Graham MacPherson who I will always trust to get it right. A shrewd character with whom I had the pleasure of a chat at Kelso last season. The joint top rated Ballon Onabudget was 3rd at 7/1 so a pleasing race all round.
Just one race tomorrow Tuesday August 18:
Fontwell
2.45 Chapmanshype 143; Trans Express 140; Percy Street 138
Top rated by no means disgraced on his return to the track at Southwell and ran up three course wins August to October last year.A nice winner again today in Chapmanshype at 9/2. Positives all the way with that one and price was very pleasing.
Weather could have a bearing on tomorrow’s racing with rain making his way north and due to hit York around 2pm.
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 19
Stratford
3.05 Fanzio 137; Ashutor 136h; Atlantic Storm 130
Ashutor has a rating from handicap hurdle form, but his chase debut suggests he’s right in the mix.York
1.45 Han Solo Berger 116; Justanotherbottle 115; Magic J 115; Come From The Dark 112
3.45 Makawee 116; Solo Saxophone 115; Blakeney Point 112
4.20 Keep Busy 115; Electric Ladyland 108; Free Love 106
The more rain the better for the top rated here. She kept tabs with Art Power for a long way at Ascot and could be a class above these.Bath
3.55 Kodiak Attack 103; Celsius 96; Ishvara 95; Grandfather Tom 95Some near misses today, including Keep Busy coming 2nd at 15/2.
Makawee stayed on well to finish 3rd at 33/1. She’s been running over a mile and ah alf this term but really looked to need all of this two miles, and looks an interesting type if aimed at the Cesarewitch.
THURSDAY AUGUST 20
York
2.45 Ouzo 121; Sir busker 119; Deep Intrigue 118; Red Bond 118
4.50 Dawaaween 118; Lorton 112; Odyseey Girl 110Chester
4.25 Mutabaahy 94; Manshood 93; Broken Spear 92; Wrenthorpe 92
4.55 King Ragnar 110; Sha La La La Lee 109; Alemaratalyoum 108
6.30 Barbill 107; Gabrial The Devil 106; Rayong 104; Call Me Ginger 104
8.00 Ottonian 100; Vindolanda 95; Champagne Terri 95Rattled the woodwork a few times today, courtesy of Sir Busker (it’s his way!), Dawaaween (decent race in that one soon) and Broken Spear/Wrenthorpe before Barbill obliged at 18/5. Vindolanda then reverted to the day’s pattern by finishing second. Frustrating not to get more winners but close enough to suggest the ratings are in the irght area.
Had Broken Spear’s race covered with all the principals within 3lbs of the top. Canford Bay worth noting did well to get very close off a draw out on the river bank. I do moan about non-runners from wide draws at The Roodee, but from all winners only that of the 2 mile race was drawn higher than 5.
A quieter day in terms of qualifying races tomorrow before a weekend blitz.
FRIDAY AUGUST 21
York
1.45 Byron Flyer 112; King’s Caper 112; Restorer 109; Zabeel Champion 109
4.15 Asiaaf 110; Angel Power 103; Al Rasmah 102
4.50 Johan 121; Magnetised 119; Cloud Drift 119Newton Abbot
5.25 Kentford Heiress 136; Grageelagh Girl 128; Floral Bouquet 127; Midnight Sapphire 127
THe top rated at Newton Abbot is one of my ‘cliff horses’ but her trainer does seem to have found a decent opportunity in this race.
Pleased that I have managed to keep this thread going for so long, given that on the busier days it’s taking me 3 or 4 hours to compile figures, and that it continues in profit. As a result my own betting has improved and, so far(!), I’m showing a better profit margin this season than any since 2010. I’ve dabbled with various angles, but I will always feel on safer ground ‘trusting the figures’.
A couple of races with winners having had no handicap runs it was a tough day. Kentford Heiress was 2nd at 22/1 trumped by a Henderson handicap newcomer. Angel Power was a 2nd top rated winner at 7/1.
Busy day tomorrow. I’ve passed on a couple of contests where many of the runners have no handicap form, Sandown 2.05 and 3.15.
SATURDAY AUGUST 22
Uttoxeter
1.40 Flashing Glance 150; Beyond The Clouds 142; Purple King 140
3.20 Buster Thomas 158; Mercian Prince 156; Solomon Grey 151
4.25 Bally Longford 140; Doing Fine 135; Kings Temptation 127Sandown
2.40 Variyann 105; River Dawn 104; Gin Palace 103York
2.25 Dancing Approach 123; Kipps 119; Punctuation 117
3.40 Pablo Escobarr 123; Scarlet Dragon 121; El Misk 119
4.40 Silver Dust 120; Cape Cavalli 119; Lucander 119
5.10 Queen’s Order 120; Electric Ladyland 118; Meraas 117Chelmsford
6.55 Red October 103; Divine Messenger 98; Strawberry Jack 91; Master The Stars 91
7.25 Royal Marine 110; Cardsharp 109; Reeves 109; Afraid Of Nothing 109A cracking contest for that last race the Chelmsford City Cup which sadly disappears under the radar on Ebor Day. That said it looks a fiendish one to crack but the top rated is interesting, running a decent race at Newmarket last time and was racing in Group 1s last year.
I had my usual miserable Ebor Meeting though previous course winner and joint 2nd rated Lucander won at 10/1. Three winenrs from the top 3 at Uttoxeter, a nice reversed Exacta in the 1.50 and then Red October livened things with a win at 15/2 at Chelmsford.
Nice to see Cartmel’s two feature contests are to be shown on ITV tomorrow.
SUNDAY AUGUST 23
Cartmel
1.45 Beeno 135; Constancio 134; The Steward 133
2.15 Demi Sang 171; Northern Beau 144; YCCS Portocervo 143
Demi Sang is either the biggest certainty of the season OR a quirk thrown up by a field that have swapped backwards and forwards between hurdles and chases!Sandown
2.00 Mountain Peak 101; Benny And The Jets 101; Saaheq 100
2.30 Data Protection 114; Getchagetchagetcha 113; Hyanna 108; Maori Knight 108
5.20 Mukha Magic 102; Young Merlin 101; Jersey Wonder 100; Vibrance 100A decent day today with a couple of winners Beeno at 7/2 and Data Protection at the surprisingly generous odds of 14/1. Demi Sang was given a decent ride by Richie McLernon, but he’s quirky and the best he could manage was second.
Results after this week with almost 3 months completed on this thread:
Top Rated: Selections 326 Wins 50 Returns 429.38
5lbs Clear: Selections 77 Wins 13 Returns 109.23Top Rated still going along very nicely considering I’m taking the top from bare ratings with no other factors, just over 100pts profit from 326 bets is better than I could have imagined. I’ve been betting at Betfair SP which gives a significant advantage on the longer priced horses (Red October SP 15/2 paid over 11/1 after commission on Betfair) and, I suspect, even more room for manoeuvre for those in the live market. The latter winner also boosted the returns for the ‘5lbs clear’ selections after a quiet spell.
I’ve been loathe to make too many outside considerations when betting. I did back Beyond The Clouds yesterday over the top-rated, and at Chester I’ve been taking careful note of the draw, but otherwise taking the figures at face value.
Quiet week coming up and only one qualifying race tomorrow MONDAY AUGUST 24:
Southwell
4.25 Western Rules 146; Jacks Last Hope 144; Justatenner 139; Mason Jar 139
Not an all together straight forward contest as Ennistown has a chase rating of 147, but I’ve gone with the hurdles ratings. Regulars on the northern circuit may tell you Western Rules has ‘more vices than Screwfix’, but Nicky Richards is a canny operator and the horse’s overall record of 6 from 26 is actually pretty decent.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.