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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1495433
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Generally tilting at windmills with today’s top rated selection though there was a notable 3rd place at 50/1 for Five Helmets at Ayr. Chance of a high priced win is gone but I suspect this one will land a similar race before long. In general ‘Scobie’ Jardine’s runners have taken a while to warm up this season so expect further progression.

    First race at Goodwood wasn’t too bad with a 2nd rated winner at 11/2 and 3rd rated filling third place at 25/1. Later on the card joint 3rd rated Only Spoofing won at 14/1.

    Wargrave is finally consumed to the metaphorical bin after a quirky performance at Goodwood. Unruly at the stalls 9again), fly jumped out of them, pulled hard, rushed up to go prominent then weakened from three out. Maybe needs saving for the snow at St Moritz next February where his desperation to lead is presumably an advantage.

    WEDNESDAY JULY 29

    Goodwood
    1.10 Waliyak 113; Geetanjali 111; Dean Street Doll 110
    1.45 Mukha Magic 120; Smart Champion 116; Author’s Dream 114
    2.15 King’s Caper 113; A Star Above 108; Glenties 107
    4.20 Kondratiev Wave 112; Toro Strike 110; Verboten 110

    Bangor
    2.30 Imada 150; Ennistown 146; Red Giant 144

    Thirsk
    6.00 Admirality 100; Lincoln Park 92; Shared Belief 92
    6.30 Custodian 101; Hortzadar 99; Fennaan 98

    Best best of the day looks to be Admirality at Thirsk, the dream ticket of an in-form Roger Fell horse making a quick return. At his best a class 2 performer so this looks solidly within his compass.

    Mukha Magic is interesting at Goodwood on the basis of an excellent effort over the extended distance of the Queen Alexandra at Ascot.

    The 4.20 at Goodwood has 3 three-year-olds 9lbs and more clear of the the remainder, the big question being whether the form behind Khaloosy holds together as this is how they gain a lofty figure.

    #1495635
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Returns from jum pracing have been promising to date and an easy winner at Bangor today in Imada at 15/2 and a few places from others. Admirality when just done close home at Thirsk.

    A couple of nurseries tomorrow but this method steers clear of them.

    THURSDAY JULY 30

    Goodwood
    1.10 Flippa the Strippa 110; Caspian Queen 104; Spanish Angel 100
    1.45 Lucander 116; Bright Melody 114; Group One Power 112; Note Bleu 112

    Southwell
    1.00 One Forty Seven 150; Canton Prince 148; Lucca Lady 138
    2.30 Constancio 151; Cervaro Mix 149; Fiesole 145; Highly Prized 145

    Musselburgh
    6.30 Militia 88; Lomu 87; Royal Brave 82

    Nothing that really grabs me a strong selection, but sometimes the apparently quiet ones do the business.

    #1495800
    robnorthrobnorth
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    The ‘quiet day’ duly delivered, One forty Seven obliging nicely at 10/1 and then Militia doing the business at 3/1. Lucander was withdrawn not inclined to enter the stalls, so two top rated winners from 4 on the day and jump returns continue on an upward curve.

    Just the 3 qualifying races tomorrow.

    FRIDAY JULY 31

    Goodwood
    1.10 Celestran 102; First Impression 101; Summit Reach 100
    2.45 Fox Premier 119; Blown By Wind 118; Cliffs Of Capri 117

    Pontefract
    3.25 Where’s Jeff 92; Groveman 90; Dream With Me 89

    #1495923
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Not near a winner today but only three races so no serious damage to finances.

    SATURDAY AUGUST 1

    Newmarket
    1.30 Dutch Painting 95; Casual Reply 87; Freyja 79
    2.40 Rosadora 109; Stone Circle 98; Rodin 98
    4.25 Natty Night 96; Zuba 93; Make Haste Slowly 89

    Goodwood
    1.50 Tommy G 101; Spirited Guest 100; Highly Sprung 96
    2.25 Shailene 117; Mordred 114; Laafy 112
    3.35 I Am A Dreamer 121; Wedding Date 120; Venturous 118; Swindler 117; Lexington Dash 117; Brian The Snail 117
    4.10 Tomfre 115; Manigordo 113; Corvair 113
    5.10 Overwrite 106; Streak Lightning 102; Sword Beach 97

    Rather like the top two at long odds in the Stewards Cup as I can find a few reasons why they might run better than odds suggest.

    #1496095
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Natty Night was the one top rated winner on the day at 7/2.

    First shot from Newmarket on ITV before the 2.40 was of Rosadora heading riderless back towards the stands and she was duly withdrawn. When recording results on this thread a withdrawn top rated means no selection in that race unless there are joint top rated.

    From the Stewards Cup list of 6 best were Brian The Snail 3rd at 66/1 and Swindler 4th at 12/1. Near misses at good wood from Shailene at 14/1 and Overwrite at 9/2, but the meeting was a great disappointment. Returns were positive for the week only because of winners elsewhere.

    SUNDAY AUGUST 2

    Newcastle
    3.25 Dark Jedi 107; Archie Perkins 107; Mutasaamy 104

    Leicester
    4.10 Byline 98; Badri 98; Musicality 92

    #1496182
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A ‘turn a profit day’ today with Byline a winner at 100/30. Archie Perkins was a non-runner, after my mistaken obsession with that one on a couple of competition threads yesterday.

    Not a huge amount of action before the weekend, though on Saturday Class 2 and 3 handicaps dominate, but a few races tomorrow tomorrow to keep things ticking over.

    MONDAY AUGUST 3

    Haydock
    3.15 Makanah 106; Jabbarockie 103; Arecibo 102; Aplomb 102

    Windsor
    5.40 Walk On Walter 115; Spirit Of May 111; Second collection 111
    6.15 Wild Edric 99; Just Glamorous 99; Wonderwork 96; Spoof 96

    Updated Results

    Top Rated (including joints)
    Selections 242 Wins 40 Returns 326.78

    5lbs or more clear
    Selections 57 Wins 11 Returns 96.73

    #1496243
    robnorthrobnorth
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    No winners from top rated today, Wonderwork was a winner from the lesser rates.

    No qualifying races on Tuesday August 4.

    #1496378
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Was busy last couple of days so didn’t get a chance to work out figures for Newton Abbot today.

    Four races to rate tomorrow then 2 on Friday before a bumper batch of Class 2 and 3 Handicaps on Saturday.

    THURSDAY AUGUST 6

    Ripon
    1.15 Wentworth Falls 101; True Mason 96; Bossipop 96

    Bath
    4.40 Dubai Instinct 98; Just the Man 94; Renardeau 92

    Stratford
    5.20 Tsundoku 134; See The sea 125; Green Or Black 123
    7.20 More Buck’s 151; King Alfonso 147; Fidux 146

    #1496466
    robnorthrobnorth
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    No success yesterday and a couple of small fields contests today where ratings oppose the favourites.

    Friday August 7
    Sandown
    3.30 Kingbrook 108; Native Tribe 102; Enemy 97
    4.05 Margaret Dumont 101; Dancing Holly 99; Oleksander 96

    Stacks of action tomorrow but thankfully got stuck into the figures early and only a couple of races left to complete.

    #1496530
    robnorthrobnorth
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    No winners at Sandown today, and no top rated winners since Sunday, but that’s only 11 races and that’s not a serious losing run when you are dealing with a win rate of around 15%.

    Busy day tomorrow and there are a few with a decent advantage.

    SATURDAY AUGUST 8

    Haydock
    1.30 Dubai Mirage 115; Red Bond 99; Sha La La La Lee 96
    3.50 Northernpowerhouse 94; Sermon 94; Dutch Decoy 91
    4.25 Sound Of Iona 94; Betsey Trotter 89; She Can Boogie 89

    Ascot
    1.50 Chil Chil 107; Equiano Springs 106; Highland Dress 102; Equitation 102; Will To Win 102; Hamish Macbeth 102
    2.25 Cap Francais 115; Ejtilaab 111; Hateya 110
    3.00 Island Brave 111; Holy Kingdom 110; Mondain 110
    3.35 Hyanna 120; Omnivega 112; Medal Winner 111; Kyllachy Gala 111
    4.10 Orczy 106; Bronze River 104; Wise Glory 101

    Newmarket
    4.00 Fox Champion 103; Royal Marine 98; Tomfre 107
    4.35 Ajax Tavern 115; Evening Sun 114; Toronto 111
    5.10 Harrovian 105; Cognac 102; Data Protection 93
    5.40 Mouriyani 98; Dazzling Rock 97; Horatio Star 88

    Uttoxeter
    6.00 Justatenner 150; Shantou Village 136; Yes No Maybe So 134
    8.00 Teqany 144; Gateway To Europe 143; John Constable 141

    #1496626
    robnorthrobnorth
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    After a frustrating week winners and near misses flew in early this afternoon, highlight being smooth winner Island Brave at 33/1 with Dubai Mirage 3/1 and Chil Chil 7/2 winning comfortably. On the contrary Northernpowerhouse swooped to lead right on the line in a 3 way photo at 9/1. Hyanna just lost out the other way, closing fast and just held at 22/1 at Ascot. T

    SUNDAY AUGUST 9

    Salisbury
    2.15 Mr Kiki 109; Konchek 105; Poets Dance 104
    2.50 Salayel 102; Indie Angel 101; Separate 96

    Thirsk
    1.55 Autumn Flight 102; Duke Of Firenze 98; Watchable 97
    2.30 Presidential 100; Swissterious 99; East Street Revue 96

    Windsor
    4.20 Lucky’s Dream 96; Baryshnikov 92; Soghan 88

    #1496740
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A blank from the top rated though 2nd and 3rd rated winners at 3/1, , 100/30 and 4/1 would have eked out a marginal profit covering the top 3 in their races.

    Results to date:

    Top Rated – Selections 272 Wins 44 Returns 379.28
    5lbs clear – Selections 65 Wins 12 Returns 100.73

    Strike rate overall is in the range of that expected. I’ve been betting on Betfair and showing a decent margin since commencing operations at the start of July. Tends to be runs on non winners followed by a blitz that boosts the profit, but my most successful betting endeavours have tended to be in the 15 to 20% strike rate area so it suits my mind set.

    Overall top have provided 91 winners from 252 races which is 36% but nearer the target of 40% if non-runners and withdrawn are taken into account.

    Fairly quiet this coming week before picking up on Friday.

    MONDAY AUGUST 10

    Southwell
    2.15 Croco Bay 147; Adrrastos 147; Azzuri 143

    Chester
    5.30 Baby Steps 96; Gallipoli 94; Spirit Warning 93
    7.00 Restorer 115; Desert Icon 113; Palacvecino 111
    8.00 Edinburgh Castle 87; Arabist 85; Gabrial The One 84

    A day of more hope than confidence. I may site the day out betting wise as Southwell chase is tight, all rated within 7lbs, and Chester is not my favourite place for betting as a tight course so dependent on draw and luck in running.

    #1496831
    robnorthrobnorth
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    No top rated winners but a couple of winners identified in the close rated. I backed Gallipoli to win on the basis of being a well weighted prominent runner drawn on the inside. Baby Steps was similar but drawn wider and I got it right, though bet would be reversed if Baby Steps was drawn near the rail. Palavecino just held top rated Restorer in the 7.30.

    Sadly veteran Croco Bay took a fatal fall at Southwell, which took the edge off the day.

    Thunderstorms forecast for Scotland tomorrow so could be a real influencing factor but here are the ratings for two races. both races look very open contests.

    TUESDAY AUGUST 11

    Perth
    5.40 No Hiding Place 126; Craigmor 125; Chocolat Noir 125
    7.10 Red Giant 142; Forecast 139; Boy’s On Tour 137

    #1496901
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A blank for the speculative top rates, but both winners at Perth were in the top three.

    Just one race for tomorrow Wednesday August 12:

    Kempton
    3.20 Split Down South 102; Lost Surprise 101; Love Powerful 101
    A strong looking trio at least 7lbs clear of the remainder.

    #1496988
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Split Down South ran a pretty decent race into 4th place and should progress from the return from lay-off. The race was won easily by progressive type in May Sonic and illustrates the way such an animal can come in under the radar of this method. That said my target is value on well weighted horses so not going to catch everything.

    Once again only the one qualifying race tomorrow Thursday August 13:

    Salisbury
    2.50 Point In Time 106; Kepala 106; Ghaziyah 100

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