Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

Very little action for the next couple of days and the weather might hit the one qualifying race:

THURSDAY JANUARY 14

Catterick
2.40 Chef D’Oeuvre 151; Classic Escape 151; Le Breuil 150

FRIDAY JANUARY 15

One race qualifies at Newcastle but it’s a 3yo only race with 4 runners, 2 of which haven’t run in a handicap. I’ll give that one a miss.

[robnorth]

Some doubt over weather for the weekend with a snow warning in place. It’s a relatively quiet weekend in the upper handicap echelon anyway.

SATURDAY JANUARY 16

Lingfield
1.25 Intuitive 110; Fox Power 109; Papa Stour 107
3.10 Total Commitment 112; Top Breeze 104; Count Otto 101

Market Rasen
2.05 Rowland Ward 147; Oscars Leader 146; Edwardstone 143

Warwick
1.15 Amoola Gold 151; Sky Pirate 147; Equus Millar 143
3.00 Le Breuil 166; Late Romantic 162; The Hollow Ginge 159
3.35 Imperial Alcazar 159; Kepagge 159; Tobefair 155

Kempton
7.20 I’m Available 94; Gold Brocade 94; Dancing Feet 89; Amber Island 89

SUNDAY JANUARY 17

Southwell
2.35 Summeronsevenhills 97; Arabian King 96; Chipiron 94; Mukha Magic 94

[robnorth]

An update on results this year after a decent day today:

Top Rated: 8 wins from 48 returning 39.16
Shortest SP: 12 from 44 returning 41.39
Top 3 All races: 25 winners from 44 races

Ratings for the next two days:

SUNDAY JANUARY 17

Southwell
2.35 Summeronsevenhills 97; Arabian King 96; Chipiron 94; Mukha Magic 94

MONDAY JANUARY 18

Wolverhampton
6.40 Avarice 109; Home Before Dusk 102; Power Of States 98

[robnorth]

TUESDAY JANUARY 19

Fakenham
1.55 Potters Hedger 142; Young Offender 142; Crossgalesfamegame 139

Young Offender’s form doesn’t look over special but he does go very well round this tight circuit. Sulked last time when he couldn’t with the leaders having run better than 8th place suggests first time, prominent for a long way and only beaten 7 lengths. Early market 11/1 and there will be worse bets this season.

[robnorth]

Fakenham was off so no chance to test my theory regarding Young Offender. Worth noting though if and when he does appear around Fakenham.

The action picks up from now, though rather dependent on weather which is wet down south and still near frozen up here.

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 20

Newbury
3.05 Miss Heritage 147; Another Theatre 146; Midnights’ Gift 142
3.35 Forgot to Ask 138; Onefortheroadtom 137; Fagan 133; Le Boizelo 133; Dark Flame 133

Chepstow
2.40 West to The Bridge 149; First Lord De Cuet 147; Nightboattoclyro 140

[robnorth]

Fagan, very useful at his best, but judged his light campaigns has been a devil of a job to train. He still retains ability though and was a second top winner at 5/1 today. Nightboattoclyro was the other top 3 winner.

THURSDAY JANUARY 21

Lingfield
2.00 Gulliver 116; Highland Dress 115; Keyser Soze 113

Ludlow
2.10 Catamaran Du Seuil 136; Faustinovick 135; The Dubai Way 133
2.40 Sandymount Rose 127; Coillte Eile 125; Wilde Spirit 116

Wincanton
2.20 Jabulani 144; And The Now 138; Brinkley 136
3.20 River Bray 142; Rosie And Millie 133 Dino Velvet 128
3.50 The kings Writ 148; Dawson City 146; Dieu Vivant 143

[robnorth]

A good sprinkling of winners in top 3 including a reverse forecast in the Somerset National.

FRIDAY JANUARY 22

Musselburgh
2.25 Goobinator 136; Gemologist 133; Pencreek 131

Lingfield
2.35 Fizzy Feet 112; Brian The Snail 111; Aberama Gold 108

Chelmsford
6.15 Lord Riddiford 109; Leodis Dream 106; Tone The Barone 103
7.15 Red Bond 100; Variyann 98; Fighting Temeraire 96

[robnorth]

Three out of 4 winners in the top 3 today so that winner percentage from top 3 is running well in advance of 50%.

A little concern over the weather this weekend but here are the ratings for the two days.

SATURDAY JANUARY 23

Taunton
2.45 Amour De Nuit 156; Jolly’s Cracked It 156; Air Horse One 156; Thibault 149

Ascot
1.50 War Lord 157; Botox Has 153; Lightly Squeeze 150; I K Brunel 149
2.25 Bigirononhiship 149; Enqarde 143; Singlefarmpayment 139; Classic Ben 137; Favorito Buck’s 137
3.00 Colorado Doc 164; Espoir De Guye 163; Windsor Avenue 158; Young Wolf 157

Haydock
2.05 Potters Hedger 146; Hijack 145; Clyne 144; Farrants Way 143
2.40 Lamanver Pippin 173; Just Your Type 171; Claud And Goldie 166; Smooth stepper 161; Potters Legend 161
3.50 Templehills 141; Le Couer Net 141; Destined To Shine 131; Black Pirate 130

[robnorth]

Potters Hedger nice top rated winner at 18/1.

Quiet tomorrow and Monday for qualifying handicaps.

SUNDAY JANUARY 24

Lingfield
1.40 Myseven 110; Scarlet Dragon 107; Furzig 105; Pirate King 105

MONDAY JANUARY 25

Plumpton
3.20 Northern Poet 139; Zhiguli 134; Crossgalesfamegame 131

Kempton
6.45 Starshiba 106; Soar Above 100; Equitation 98; Ice Age 98

[robnorth]

Myseven won today at 7/2 which puts top rated only just a the negative side for the year.

Likely to be quiet for the next few days but Kempton tomorrow should be OK and Plumpton might avoid worst of the weather, ratings as per previous post. Kelso(Tuesday) currently frozen and if it’s anything like it is Dunfermline there’s no chance so I’ll hold off until tomorrow before calculating figures. It’s been frozen here for 2 weeks and muggins has been out gritting our road as nobody else seems inclined!

[robnorth]

Starshiba at 11/2 yesterday means that top rated returns crept up to a plus figure for the year.

One race at Lingfield tomorrow, a 4 runner event with a suspiciously high top rate figure!

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 27

Lingfield
1.15 Sky Defender 121; United Front 111; Power Of States 103

[robnorth]

After the freeze comes the rain but hopefully tomorrow’s action will go ahead.

THURSDAY JANUARY 28

Fakenham
1.55 Lord Scoundrel 148; Monty’s Award 143; Shanacoole Prince 143; Corrany 142

Wetherby
3.10 The Paddy Pie 146; Town Parks 142; Maybole Class 135; Charmant 114 (gap between third and fourth sums this one up!)

Southwell
1.10 Alexej 104; Shallow Hal 103; Katheefa 100
2.45 Mirage Mac 101; Apatite 98; Fabilis 92
3.55 Ornate 102; Diamond Dougal 101; Tawny Port 99; Giagiobbo 99

[robnorth]

The ‘World Four Furlong Champion’ Ornate finally lasted home today at 85/40! Shallow Hal 5/1 was the otehr winenr from top three.

Quiet day tomorrow

FRIDAY JANUARY 29

Doncaster
2.05 Whoshotthesheriff 157; Little Light 151; Ibleo 145

[robnorth]

SATURDAY JANUARY 30

Lingfield
2.55 Midnights Legacy 96; Renardeau 95; Pirate King 91
3.30 Atheeb 99; Mohareb 95; Masked Identity 95

Doncaster
3.15 Cap Du Nord 178; Give Me A Copper 162; Aye Right 161; Musical Slave 160

Kempton
2.00 Amtiyaz 104; Koeman 100; Cosmelli 100; Chipiron 100; Vibrance 100

SUNDAY JANUARY 31

Catterick
2.30 Look My Way 140; Hart Of Steel 137; Adicci 136; Leostar 134

[robnorth]

Catterisk frozen off so no qualifying handicaps today and a chance to check figures from January.

Top rated: 15 wins from 88 selections, returning 82.44.
Shortest priced of top 3: 25 wins from 79 selections, returning 85.28.
Top 3: 45 wins from 79 races (57%)

Promising results with profits continuing for shortest priced, with win percentage around 30%.

The win rate from top 3 is encouraging but probably a reflection of smaller fields at tha time of year. That said this may signal that it’s a time of year to get involved as it’s backed up by decent returns from single selections.

[robnorth]

A bit late with today’s one race due to other commitments but here we have the one race each today and tomorrow:

MONDAY FEBRUARY 1

Wolverhampton
7.10 Red Poppy 92; Toronado Queen 91; Lottie Marje 90

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 2

Southwell
6.10 Brian The Snail 107; Lomu 106; Gabrial The Devil 106

[robnorth]

Brian The Snail nice 3/1 winner at Southwell and I bet Richard Fahey couldn’t believe how weak the race was. Top rated selected just a few points off a profit.

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 3

Warwick
3.40 Huntsman Jig 141; Young Offender 138; Supremely Lucky 137

Kempton
5.25 Crownthorpe 120; Fox Power 117; Via Serendipity 116; Papa Stour 116

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