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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1512094
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 25

    Wetherby
    2.25 So Easy Way 142; Protek Des Flos 139; Smarty Wild 139

    Lingfield
    12.30 Yes My boy 99; Plantadream 98; Sha La La La Lee 98

    Hereford
    2.50 Valse Au Taillons 126; Diamond Gait 124; Molly Ollys Wishes 123; Miss Jeanne Moon 123

    #1512160
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4823

    First two correct at Lingfield at 13/8 and 9/4. First three at Hereford though, in the words(ish) of Eric Morecambe ‘all the right horses but not necessarily in the right order!’

    some decent if not particularly well subscribed ‘teatime’ contests at Chelmsford tomorrow.

    Taunton
    2.41 Chantecler 133; Adman Sam 133; Organdi 132

    Chelmsford
    5.00 Huraiz 105; Lincoln Park 105; Firmament 104; Ghalyoon 104 (only 7 runners so this is tight)
    5.30 Sir Maximilian 105; The Gill Brothers 103; Mosakhar 98
    6.00 Ernesto 103; Australis 101; Tulip Fields 97

    #1512222
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    Disappointing returns today, only Ghalyoon (9/4) winning from those listed.

    FRIDAY NOVEMBER 27

    Doncaster
    11.55 Take Takapuna 126; Monsieur Co 125; Carolines Charm 125
    1.25 The Unit 140; Nietzsche 139; Cracking Find 139

    Newbury
    2.25 Cepage 161; Gala Ball 158; Whatswrongwithyou 158 (A very close race with 5 more within 2lbs)
    3.35 Ballon Onabudget 152; Neville’s Cross 151; Samburu Shujaa 149

    #1512344
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4823

    Carolines Charm 4/1 was the one winner from the first three and still a bit of a struggle.

    SATURDAY NOVEMBER 28

    Newcastle
    3.15 Cool Mix 160; Shantou Village 159; Definitely Red 158;

    Doncaster
    1.43 Radjash 146; Constancio 130; Golden Town 130
    2.53 Demi Sang 133; Tayzar 133; Now Look At Me 130

    Newbury
    1.15 Doctor Dex 155; Breaking Waves 144; Court Master 144
    1.50 Flash The Steel 145; Christopher Wood 144; Jacamar 143
    2.25 Millers Bank 157; Milkwood 153; Pisgah Pike 150
    3.00 Beware The Bear 171; Potterman 169; Secret Investor 163; Aye Right 163; Kildisart 163
    3.35 Hatcher 151; The Russian Doyen 150; Moonlighter 149; Ibleo 149

    Bangor
    1.22 Un Prophete 124; Haul Us In 122; Checkitout 105

    Wolverhampton
    7.00 Gabrial The Devil 103; Firmament 99; Harrison Point 98

    #1512349
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 17302

    I really like that pair in The Rehearsal. Still not had a bet though, as I like Takingrisks as well

    #1512388
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    Yes, Cool Mix is a very interesting one. Has form to take this one and hints that the trip will be no problem.

    My best of the day is Radjash at Doncaster. Form is at a lower level, but you can run a coach and horses through the form of many. This one is a steady improver with franked form.

    Ratings have struggled in recent weeks but I trust the principals and results will turn.

    #1512512
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    Off the mark generally today but top-rated Flash Of Steel won at 12/1. Aye Right ran a decent race in the Ladbrokes Chase and Cool Mix a decent 3rd in the Rehearsal Chase. No problem losing the latter to a rejuvenated Yorkhill, a superb training performance from Sandy Thomson.

    Radjash was running a decent race at 18/1 when coming down 3 out.

    Ratings for the next two days:

    SUNDAY NOVEMBER 29

    Carlisle
    2.20 Planet Nine 137; Rock On Fruity 134; Mount Mews 133
    2.50 Tanarpino 136; Up Helly AA King 134; For Good Measure 131

    Leicester
    2.28 Drumconnor Lad 154; Two Taffs 148; Garde La Victoire 147

    MONDAY NOVEMBER 30

    Wolverhampton
    6.20 Kwela 103; One Small Step 102; Elegant Light 99

    #1512654
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4823

    TUESDAY DECEMBER 1

    Lingfield
    2.03 Aintree My Dream 134; Finnegan’s Garden 134; Raven’s Tower 131

    Wolverhampton
    6.30 Irreverent 92; Masked Identity 91; De Vegas Kid 88

    #1512764
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    3rd rated De Vegas Kid was a 10/1 winner today.

    A busier day tomorrow with some decent contests and I’m really looking for a decent winner or two to kick us out of a barren period.

    WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 2

    Lingfield
    12.00 Furzig 107; Protected Guest 106; Young Fire 105
    1.40 Tin Hat 110; Count Otto 100; Total Commitment 96

    Haydock
    2.20 Late Romantic 166; Burtons Well 165; Fingerontheswitch 162
    2.55 Laverteen 144; Hijack 141; Oscars Leader 141

    Ludlow
    1.30 Cubswin 146; Miranda 143; Cotton End 143
    2.05 Fagan 139; Truckin’ Away 138; Townshend 136; Larkbarrow Lad 136

    Kempton
    6.00 Typhoon Ten 109; Equitation 108; Soldier’s Minute 107; Ornate 107

    #1512828
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4823

    A welcome winner Lady Romantic at 10/1 made it a profitable day for the top rated.

    A quieter day tomorrow before action picks up again for three decent days racing over the weekend.

    THURSDAY DECEMBER 3

    Wincanton
    2.15 Hugo ‘N Taz 138; Putdecashonthedash 137; Broadclyst 135
    2.45 Green Or Black 139; Thahab Ifraj 129; Beltor 128

    Chelmsford
    6.00 Get Boosting 103; Alsvinder 100; Pop Dancer 99

    #1512924
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4823

    FRIDAY DECEMBER 4

    (updated for non-runners 10:20 4/12/20)

    Exeter
    2.40 Molineaux 151; Dusky Lark 142; Quick Wave 141
    3.15 Some Detail 143; Holdbacktheriver 140; Dancing Shadow 127; Bermeo 127

    Sandown
    12.45 Le Boizelo 144; Diable De Sivola 138; My Way 137
    1.15 Ardmayle 130; Darebin 129; Falcon Sun 129
    3.00 Dream Berry 144; Point Of Principle 144; Portrush Ted 143; Illegal Model 143
    3.35 Miss Honey Ryder 137; Misty Bloom 131; Ruby Yeats 128

    Newcastle
    5.15 Fortamour 106; Mohareb 99; Kind Review 98

    #1513017
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    No top rated winners today but Portrush Ted 12/1 was close up as was Darebin 5/1. Astro Jakk 10/1 became third rated on defection of Fortamour at Newcastle but you’ll have to take my word for that! Right old struggle to get a top rated winner but a few near misses.

    I’ve taken early non-runners out of tomorrow’s ratings but there could well be more tomorrow so I will make adjustments if necessary.

    SATURDAY DECEMBER 5

    Aintree
    12.20 Quoi De Neuf 147; Solar Impulse 146; Looks Like Murt 145; Nestor Park 143
    12.55 Captain Tom Cat 154; Ballymoy 148; Hunters Call 147;
    1.30 Calipso Collonges 177; Smooth Stepper 166; Walk In The Mill 163; Yala Enki 162
    3.15 Pink Eyed Pedro 159; Caid Du Lin 158; Lord Du Mesnil 156; Springtown Lake 155; Swift Crusador 155

    Wetherby
    1.37 Theligny 144; Templehills 142; Nearly Perfect 137
    2.12 Thor De Cerisy 143; Stainsby Girl 138; En Meme Temps 136

    Sandown
    3.00 Classic Ben 151; Crosspark 148; Doing Fine 146
    3.35 Let The Heirs Walk 167; Rosie And Millie 153; Totterdown 152

    Chepstow
    1.22 Trixster 147; Gustavian 136; Exploiteur 126
    1.57 The Two Amigos 152; Captain Drake 151; Captain Tommy 148

    Wolverhampton
    7.00 The Trader 107; Koeman 104; Sam Cooke 103

    #1513213
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    Struggling to tip a wheelbarrow on this thread right now. A couple of top 3 winners today with one still to run, but very disappointing and I’ve held off betting until results show an upturn.

    Just the one race on SUNDAY DECEMBER 6, the Borders National one of my favourite races and just a shame I can’t be up on the stand roof freezing my whatsits off watching it!

    Duc De Grissay 150
    Coole Hall 148
    Red Giant 148
    Dino Boy 147
    Bigirononhiship 145

    The north has a strong hand of staying chasers right now and this a very good Class 3 contest. Sandy Thomson has plotted this race over recent years with 4 winners and he goes in with a decent contender in DUC DE GRISSAY.

    #1513361
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4823

    Duc De Grissay knuckled over on landing as he had done over hurdles almost identically here a couple of seasons back. Somes up the luck at the moment! Dino Boy the winner was thereabouts in the ratings and Raymond Anderson Green is another who will look to have one laid for this.

    MONDAY DECEMBER 7

    Musselburgh
    2.15 Present Chief 137; Get Out The Gate 137; No Regrets 134

    Plumpton
    1.30 Midnightreflection 129; Ding Ding 124; Royal Claret 121

    I would have ticked off Kelso today and Musselburgh tomorrow so getting a bit stir crazy. Covid figures dropping steadily in Scotland so fingers crossed we can be back on course in the New Year.

    A quick edit to add latest results figures:

    All Selections: Selections 851 Wins 110 Returns 815.55
    Shortest Price of Top 3 Rated: Selections 763 Wins 163 Returns 784.26

    Top 3: Races 763 Wins 279

    After a dire November and slow start to December top rated results have fallen below the profit line. However, the ‘Shortest Price’ results do show how things can be improved with a bit of selectivity. Weeding out the ones where for one reason or another rating is not a true reflection of their chance can improve the situation. Winners from the Top 3 are hovering around the 37% mark which has been pretty much the same through the history of this thread. It gives an IV figure of somewhere around 1.3.

    If nothing else calculating the ratings ahs given me a decent knowledge of handicappers in the upper range of the Class scale, and a fair handle on the sorts of horses to look for in these contests.

    #1513421
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4823

    Was due a decent day and the five horses that ran today (one N-R) all filled the frame with winners Get Out The Gate 15/2 and Midnightreflection 11/8.

    Just one race tomorrow TUESDAY DECEMBER 8

    Fontwell
    2.08 Antony 143; Mortens Leam 142; Aintree My Dream 137

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