Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

A 1-2-3 in the chase at Kelso and a frankly amazing prize 17/2 the winner, a proven performer in a small field. Simply Ned couldn’t hold this opposition off 157, but goes out after a fine career including any amount of decent runs at Graded level and two Grade 1 wins.

Nothing to do with this project but nice to see one of my fellow ‘Kelso roof-toppers’ owner Billy Muir landing the last with his horse Folks Like Us. They had been looking to keep this one to good ground last season, but race landed today on soft.

Nothing too exciting tomorrow…

MONDAY OCTOBER 5

Pontefract
1.00 HMS President 106; Sea Trout Reach 99; War Defender 96

Windsor
3.24 It’s Good To Laugh 96; Vulcan 89; Sevenna Star 88

[sporting sam]

Hello Rob.
No Windsor tomorrow.

[robnorth]

Thanks Sam. Been a bit of a rushed day for me out doing various so didn’t get a chance to check having worked out figures after declarations. Not madly confident of the Pontefract figures in truth, but it’s that sort of time as the turf flat season winds down.

[robnorth]

A blank at Pontefract today, but a couple of decent events at Leicester tomorrow.

TUESDAY OCTOBER 6

Leicester
2.20 Spanish Archer 106; Rhythmic Intent 106; Arctic Sound 104
2.50 Ainsdale 113; Count D’Orsay 109; Celsius 109

[robnorth]

Arctic Sound 11/2 was the winner from top 3 today.

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7

Nottingham
2.00 Vindolanda 87; East End Girl 87; Lyrical 80

Ludlow
2.45 Storm Goddess 134; Hotter Than Hell 133; France de Reve 133; Skewiff 133
3.20 For Good Measure 150; Sumkindofking 145; Shoal Bay 144

Kempton
7.30 Tiger Crusade 113; Yuften 111; Mister Snowdon 104

[robnorth]

Nice Exacta from the joint tops at Nottingham Vindolanda beating East End Girl, both at 13/2. Shoal Bay won at 6/1 to provide a 3rd top winner. Disappointed that Tiger Crusade missed out at Kempton as I thought that was a strong selection.

This time last year we were off to York for the 2-day fixture, but the world’s different this year.

THURSDAY OCTOBER 8

Ffos Las
2.20 Not A Role Model 134; Lord Bryan 134; Dell’Arca 132

Exeter
2.30 Keep Moving 157; Solar Impulse 140; Night Of Sin 136

Chelmsford
7.00 Lancelot Du Lac 100; A Momentofmadness 98; Top Breeze 97

[robnorth]

Some fiendishly difficult flat handicaps with York throwing up soem tough puzzles. On course last year I made hay by ignoring the form and selecting horses on paddock inspection alone, a luxury sadly unavailable this year.

FRIDAY OCTOBER 9

Newmarket
4.10 Tritonic 112; Damage Control 112; Lauganini 111; Nasraawy 111

York
2.05 Chance 118; Young Fire 112; Another Touch 111
2.40 Punctuation 115; Toronto 112; King’s Charisma 107; Dancing Harry 107
3.45 Show Me Show Me 106; Orvar 106; Machree 106; Han Solo Berger 105; Lihou 105; Powerallied 105 (sort that one out!)

Chepstow
2.10 Blacko 149; Fraser Island 149; Group Stage 149
4.55 Shantou Village 164; Horatio Hornblower 154; On Tour 153

Kempton
6.45 Atalnata’s Boy 122; Watchable 116; Raucous 114

Strongest selection of the day looks to be CHANCE (2.05 York) who finished second on comeback in a strong form race.

[robnorth]

A succession of tough looking handicaps proved the difficult puzzle that I expected and yielded zilch in terms of top 3 winners!

Another tough day tomorrow and my decision to lay off betting in October is looking smart right now. Cesarewitch ratings are weighted heavily towards Irish staying form pinned by recent Group 1 winner Princess Zoe. Diffcult to judge as there aren’t a huge amount of staying handicaps in Ireland, so horses regularly run against each other. I’m hoping the general level proves stronger than the UK form.

SATURDAY OCTOBER 10

Hexham
1.55 Henrietta Bell 135; Little Bruce 134; Skipthescales 129; Rivabodiva 129

York
2.35 Anythingtoday 115; Glasses Up 108; Chatez 106; Spirit Dancer 106
3.10 Greenside 119; Staxton 118; Mr Lupton 114; Admirality 114
4.20 Speedy Boy 109; Solo Saxophone 103; Eddystone Rock 102
4.55 Fishable 108; Poet’s Dawn 99; Good Birthday 97; La Trinidad 97

Newmarket
3.35 Mutadaffeq 136; Great White Shark 130; Lynwood Gold 129; Rajinsky 114

Chepstow
2.12 Le Ligerien 161; Stimulating Song 152; Gunnery 149
2.47 Secret Investor 164; Potterman 161; Boldmere 160; Django Django 160; Seddon 160
3.57 Caswell Bay 165; Hometown Boy 159; Beaufort West 157
4.32 Spiritofthegames 163; Doitforthevillage 162; Marracudja 161

[robnorth]

A few near misses and a sprinkling of winners including Cesarewitch winner Great White Shark at a rather stingy 9/2.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 11

Goodwood
3.25 Tawny Port 104; Eye Of The Water 97; Typhoon Ten 95; Mr Style 95
4.25 Hyanna 109; Speed Company 104; Goshen 103; Battle Of Marathon 103

Newton Abbot
3.15 Oscarsman 153; Prabeni 153; Laugharne 151

[robnorth]

Near miss with Hyanna at 18/1, second time she’s gone close for the ratings. Other than that the negative slide through October continued and I’m pleased I’ve laid off betting.

Top rated: Selections 564 Wins 78 Returns 593.11
5lbs Clear: Selections 120 Wins 19 Returns 141.41

Still in front, but a bit of a struggle with the weather turning. Notably there have been a number of races with 2 or 3 joint top rated which have increased selections without adding to the winners, notably Friday’s York 5 furlong sprint which had 6 within 1lb. Too close for any serious involvement.

On the up side we were in the right ball park for the Cesarewitch and winner was in the top 3.

Just one race tomorrow, a decent little race as Musselburgh closes out it’s flat season:

MONDAY OCTOBER 12

Musselburgh
2.30 Hayadh 103; Alben Spirit 102; Queen’s Sargent 100; Gale Force Maya 100; Marshal Don 100

It would be nice to think it might be possible to back to the track in the near future but I doubt there will be spectators allowed at racecourses until the spring at the earliest. A lot of complaining coming from various parties, but racing does at least have the Levy to keep it going as long as it can keep supplying betting fodder, an income stream denied to other sports. I’m a follower of lower league football and quite how some small Scottish teams are going to get through the season I do not know.

[robnorth]

Winner Marshal Don 4/1 was ‘in the mix’ in a close race at Musselburgh but not a race I was ever going to get involved in.

MONDAY OCTOBER 12

Hereford
2.23 Fontley House 138; Shah An Shah 135; Dadsintrouble 132
2.58 Simply Loveleh 136; Dame Du Soir 129; Oscar Rose 129

Leicester
5.00 Cold Stare 113; Magical Wish 105; Dazzling Dan 98; Endowed 98 (ASCENSION is rated 97, and held on pure figures, but he’s an out-and-out mud lover and I suspect still has a bit in hand)

[robnorth]

The mares race at Hereford cut up to give Oscar Rose a penalty kick which she duly converted at 11/10. She’s not a bad mare but some of these contests are ‘egg and spoon’ races. There’s no depth in the UK mares’ racing population and I’ve always said that any trainer with a mare that can raise a gallop, particularly in the north, can make hay in these contests. Downside is they get hit by the handicapper when returning to open company. The Irish must be p***ing themselves laughing at the addition of a mares’ championship race at the Cheltenham Festival. It just looks a question of which one of the Irish mares will win it.

A couple of fancy priced place horses in the other Hereford contest, but both well held by the progressive winner Neville’s Cross.

Waiting on the Leicester race but pressed for time this evening so I’ll post tomorrow’s ratings now. A busy day for a Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14

Nottingham
2.35 Badenscoth 100; Dogged 91; Furzig 88 (Not a strong race and handicap newcomer Balzac wouldn’t have to be anything special to take this)
4.20 Bellevarde 99; Wrenthorpe 95; Just Glamorous 93

Wetherby
4.10 Shannon Bridge 149; Almazhar Garde 149; Awake At Midnight 147
4.45 Western Rules 142; Teescomponents Lad 138; Silva Eclipse 137
5.15 Amoola Gold 147; Havana Hermano 144; Vado Forte 143
5.45 Oakley 152; Anemoi 149; Westland Row 145

Kempton
6.00 Moment Of Silence 113; Desert Doctor 113; Hamish Macbeth 109
7.00 Hieronymus 103; Jumaira Bay 100; Zhui Feng 99; Newbolt 99

[robnorth]

Three top rated winners today, Wrenthorpe 9/2, Desert Doctor 15/2 and Amoola Gold at 4/1, the latter heading up rather tasty Tricast.

THURSDAY OCTOBER 16

Carlisle
2.26 Pookie Pekan 148; Court Dreaming 144; Bafana Blue 141
Wincanton
3.55 Jamacho 135; Shiroccan Roll 131; Get Back Get Back 128
4.30 Forgot To Ask 146; Flying Verse 135; Lillington 131
Chelmsford
7.00 Home Before Dusk 105; Assimilation 104; Lord Neidin 104

[robnorth]

A quiet day though Court Dreaming made fitbess tell at 13/2, he top rated Pookie Pekan making an encouraging return.

FRIDAY OCTOBER 16

Uttoxeter
2.23 Midnight Sapphire 141; Haul Away 136; The Eaglehaslanded 136

Haydock
1.45 Air Raid 105; Happy Bere 105; Edgewood 105
2.48 Mascat 93; Brentford Hope 91; Markazi 91

Fakenham
3.40 Kilfulum Cross 142; As You Like 142; Favorito Buck’s 142; One Forty Seven 142 (and 3 others within 2lbs, sort that one out!)

[robnorth]

A good day at Haydock with joint top Air Raid winning at 16/1 in a photo. The other handicap had top three filling the first three places, Brentford Hope 9/4 winning from Mascat and Markazi. The jumps races were toughies, the winner at Fakenham being only a pound off of the 4 joint-tops and Uttoxeter race full of seasonal debutants.

Incidentally I didn’t rate it but makes a change to see an 18 runner novice chase at Uttoxeter even if it was a handicap. Cracking race and the winner Demachine is an interesting prospect at the right end of the ratings.

With the accent on Group races at Ascot it makes for a quiet day on the handicap front. Bonus for me is that I have been able to keep up with the figures in amongst my Earth Science studies. (Had to recall Maths, Chemistry, Physics and Biology in the past week…, my head hurts!)

SATURDAY OCTOBER 17

Ascot
4.15 Keats 120; Tempus 120; Njord 116; Hortzadar 116

Catterick
3.45 Count D’Orsay 109; Broken Spear 107; Lord Riddiford 104 (Weaker than last year’s event and looks a good chance for Count D’Orsay to repeat his success)

Market Rasen
3.21 Drumconnor Lad 147; Fleur Irlandaise 147; Dream Berry 144; Palladium 144
4.31 Louis’ Vac Pouch 154; Ravenhill Road 153; Fidux 148

Wolverhampton
8.00 Iffraaz 102; Carlos Felix 101; Tafish 100

[robnorth]

After the defection of both Keats and Tempus the ratings gave a very nice winner in Njord at 15/2. Still waiting on the Wolverhampton race at time of updating the thread.

I had a look at monthly results today and I note that the top rated made a decent profit in June, July and August, but the wheels came off in September. After the last couple of days returns are a few points in deficit for October. I always found September/October and awkward time and have generally cut back my betting activities during this time, but would hope that results will improve as the jumps season ramps up.

On that very subject there is some decent jump racing tomorrow, though fitness likely to be a key.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 18

Ffos Las
3.10 Ballyandy 166; Thebannerkingrebel 161; Remiluc 160

Kempton
2.57 Locker Room Talk 154; Cap Du Nord 148; Solar Impulse 147;

Sedgefield
4.33 Petite Power 154; Chanceanotherfive 154; Theligny 152; Arthur’s Gift 152
5.10 River Frost 146; Melody Of Scotland 136; Landsman 135

[robnorth]

Locker Room Talk was the one top rated winner today at 9/2. The only Class 3 event tomorrow is a novices’ handicap chase at Plumpton and I’m avoiding them until there’s enough form in the book, so it’s a rare blank day.

[Author]

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