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Bulwark how was I "twisting your argument?" I merely pointed out that you ommitted Generous when criticising Caerleon’s record as a stallion.
I picked up on that point because Generous clearly proved that Caerleon was capable of sireing a horse with a "decent level of form" as it surprised you that a Caerleon colt (Tenby) had shown a "decent level of form in the first place".
If you are going to provide an argument you can’t leave out things because they don’t fit with your theory. You’ll be joining the Labour party next. ;)
Quote: from The Market Man on 10:47 pm on Oct. 24, 2006[br]Bulwark how was I "twisting your argument?" I merely pointed out that you ommitted Generous when criticising Caerleon’s record as a stallion.
I picked up on that point because Generous clearly proved that Caerleon was capable of sireing a horse with a "decent level of form" as it surprised you that a Caerleon colt (Tenby) had shown a "decent level of form in the first place".
If you are going to provide an argument you can’t leave out things because they don’t fit with your theory. You’ll be joining the Labour party next. ;)
<br>Fair Play market man, but I also left out Dubai Millenium when talking about Mr Prospector colts, but this not because I wish not to accept that Mr Prospector is capable of getting good colts, it is merely that I dont find them as reliable.
PS. I could never join the labour party, id spend all my time arguing with them over why the Flat is better than Jumps, the no good peasants. Conservative all the way….;)
New York and Bulwark, you are like the blind leading the sodding blind here – living proof that a little learning is a dangerous thing.
Re: the whole ‘stamina from the sire/stamina from the damsire’ thing – you both need to learn about prepotence, and a little session looking at chefs de race (if not actually dosage) would do you the world of good.  Bulwark, I appreciate that this would mean you having to factor in some respect for horses other than your beloved Northern Dancer, but you’re just going to have to get over it.
Caerleon was champion sire in 1991, the only one to break into the Sadler’s Wells era of dominance.  He has had winners of the Derby, 1000 Guineas, Oaks (in most countries!), Arc, St Leger, champion 2yos, 3yos and older horses.  I suggest you do some research before you call him ‘inconsistent’.
To be honest, I can’t take arguments on breeding theory seriously from anyone who is incapable of spelling Sadler’s Wells (the most famous sire of the last 20 years) correctly.
FSL – I’m sure he is not EC.  His arguments reveal less cynicism and considerably less logical reasoning.
It feels like I’m just going round in circles here Sal. Have I ever actually said that horses with Dam side stamina are useless, I think you’ll find that what I have said is that at 1m4f, when stamina is called in I will generally prefer one that gets its stamina from its sire side. that doesnt mean I dont back horses who get their stamina from their damside, as I have already stated. But in a few pages time sure why dont you just make out that I have said this again.
The only Sire to Break into who’s area of dominance, and who are the two sires who look to following up from their sire, maybe the two that I have mentioned.
<br>"To be honest, I can’t take arguments on breeding theory seriously from anyone who is incapable of spelling Sadler’s Wells (the most famous sire of the last 20 years) correctly."
I will admit Sal that you do have an above average knowledge of breeding and a good ability to google up statistics but you strike me as the sort of person who is so wrapped up in your own sense of self importance that you cant see the forest for the trees.
Quote: from Bulwark on 11:19 pm on Oct. 24, 2006[br]It feels like I’m just going round in circles here Sal. quote]
It feels like I’m going round in circles reading your posts Bulwark!!! Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! I really haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about…
But if I’ve understood properly, you’re saying that the dam impacts all the stamina, and the sire impacts the speed?
Let me ask you…if your father was a 100metre sprinter, and your mother was a 10,000metre marathon runner, what would you be?
Very hard to say, but I’d imagine that you would be more likely to be a 100metre sprinter since the male genes are dominant.
But what if your father was the marathon runner and your mother was a sprinter?
Surely based on male genes being dominant, you’d be a marathon runner?
Stamina doesn’t appear from nowhere. In the case of Danehill – he is by Danzig, a son of NORTHERN DANCER. Maybe you’ve heard of him.
He won the KY Derby and Preakness – ultimately, he was a 10furlong horse.
So why was Danehill a sprinter? Surely by your prognosis, he should have also been a 10furlong horse (without taking the dam into account).
So is it really any suprise that Danehill is siring stayers? Westerner, Dylan Thomas, North Light…
Quote: from jackane24 on 11:49 pm on Oct. 24, 2006[br]
Quote: from Bulwark on 11:19 pm on Oct. 24, 2006[br]It feels like I’m just going round in circles here Sal. quote]
It feels like I’m going round in circles reading your posts Bulwark!!! Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! I really haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about…
But if I’ve understood properly, you’re saying that the dam impacts all the stamina, and the sire impacts the speed?
Let me ask you…if your father was a 100metre sprinter, and your mother was a 10,000metre marathon runner, what would you be?
Very hard to say, but I’d imagine that you would be more likely to be a 100metre sprinter since the male genes are dominant.
But what if your father was the marathon runner and your mother was a sprinter?
Surely based on male genes being dominant, you’d be a marathon runner?
Stamina doesn’t appear from nowhere. In the case of Danehill – he is by Danzig, a son of NORTHERN DANCER. Maybe you’ve heard of him.
He won the KY Derby and Preakness – ultimately, he was a 10furlong horse.
So why was Danehill a sprinter? Surely by your prognosis, he should have also been a 10furlong horse (without taking the dam into account).
So is it really any suprise that Danehill is siring stayers? Westerner, Dylan Thomas, North Light…
Eh? I havent said anything like this? I’m trying to think of the best way to think about it.
If you had a Darshaan filly (filly x) who is good at 1m4f and you crossed it with a speedy sire (say zafonic/pivotal etc) the I would expect you would probably end up with a horse (lets say a filly) who is best at 1mile/1m2f. So it would be lets say Zafonic/ filly x (Darshaan).
You then look at sire to cross it with (I will use the ND sires as a general example).<br>Danehill – hard to say but probably a spinter/miler.<br>Giants Causeway- Probably a miler 1m2f horse<br>Montjeu- You would expect a pretty solid 1m4f horse who could possibly go either side of that distance (1m2/1m6).
If you hadnt crossed the filly with zafonic and had went for lets say Rainbow Quest, fily x would probably be best at middle disatnce possibly staying races.
Then you crossed it against the same ND sires.
Danehill-again its hard to say but you would expect a 1mile/1m2f horse who might even see out 1m4f. <br>Giants Cuaseway-again hard to say as logically you would think 1m2f possibly 1m4f but in reaity judging by everything he knocked up last year the very best ones all appeared best at 1mile/1m2f, regardless of damside Stamina.<br>Montjeu-1M4F -2miles depending on the speed he inherits.
A way of explaining it in simple human terms<br>My mother is 5ft8, my father is 5ft10 and stocky, yet myself and my brothers are all 6ft2 or 6ft3 and with the exception of one are all thin (or at least have metabolisms that make weight loss or gain easy). This because my grandfather and all my uncles on my mothers side are 6ft6 and thin and obviously he has more dominant genes than my fathers.
With a 1m4f horse ideally you want a tall rangy horse but with certain amount of muscle to give him a sharp turn of foot.
Almost all sprinters are usually not as tall and more compact and muscular, milers are all usually of average height and build for a horse and you would seldom see one that you think it very tall or very small, 1m2f can take all sorts of shapes and sizes, stayers are usually very tall and thin. (This is what I find anyway)
If you bred a horse from Sadler Wells/ Galileo/Montjeu you will almost always get a tall rangy sort, and how much speed they have on their damisde usually dictates their distance.
If you breed a horse from Giants Causeway for some reason you almost always get a horse who is best at 1m/1m2 for soem reason. He has sired horses who have run above and beyond this distance but none that are top class that I can think of.
Danehill is the funniest of the lot because Danehills come in all shapes and sizes on one side you have ones like Horatio Nelson and HRE who are quite small and then you have the likes of Gentlemens Deal who are massive. Generally I find that the most of them are between 5/6f and 1M2f, but then you do get ones like westerner etc, but because I find that most race between 6f and 1m2 I find that when betting on a 1m4f race you have to take it as gospel that horse will see out 1m4f when you really cant be sure until they actually produce a performance at 1m4f+.
At 1m4f you can almost always guarantee that a Montjeu/Saddlers well colt will get the trip and its really just a case of how much tactical speed they have at the distance. With Motivator he was from a gone West (speed mare) and he had a very good turn of foot at 1m4f and was actually able to drop down to 1m2f where he performed to some credit (but was beaten by a better Danehill 1m2f horse), then on the other side you have Scorpion and Hurricane Run who are out of Stamina mares, they I believe are best at 1m4f+ and its just their shear class that gives them their speed at 1m4f, however Scorpion won the Leger with some absolute ease last year (as did Galileos Sixties Icon this year) and Hurricane in last years arc 4secs fast (where his stamina came into play) looked to have a whopping turn of foot, however his turn of foot is only as impressive when his stamina is called for above all others and at slow gallops he is not the same horse. I honestly think however that had Scorpion not been ran as a pacemaker for HR on that occasion he had all the class to figure much further up the field that day.
On that reasoning alone (which I will be the first to admit isnt always right, but no style of form reading is right all the time otherwise we’d all be millionaires and no-one would wish to be a bookmakers) I find that at 1m4f (and generally up aswell) until I see a Danehill outstay the 1m2f in style I will always favour an M/G or SW horse at an looking looking level.
I generally find that with Montjeu and Galileo that they are as conistent as you like but that they sometimes lack the turn of foot on occasions (and usually they are so late to develop that they do not get speed training at two in the 7f/1mile races). I hadnt grasped just how good Montjeus were when I first saw Motivator run at 2 the other year and so I couldnt at the time appreciate just what he represented until he won the derby.
With Authorized he has stamina on his Damside aswell as being by Montjeu and so he looks the sort to favour an extremely fast gallop and Ideally have stamina called into question but with his win in the RPT the other day he clearly has alot of class about him which should almost definitely pick him up top class 1m4f races next year, and with how much further he is at present and with the improvement which I think is likely I think that he should easily be 125 or better probably high120s with a dante run by the derby. <br>Teofilo on the other hand has had speed training this year which is almost unthinkable for horse of his profile and for him to remain unbeaten at a distance well short of what he is bred for and looks like I think he will go to epsom next year almost guaranteed to stay the trip (by his general size and breeding) but with a sharper turn of foot than anything else in the race is likely to come close to. To me he repressents a very rare special horse and with his turn of foot/battling qualities/and stamina and the form he has achieved at a distance short of his best I think that he could be a 130+.
I have been Folowing Gs and Ms for the last couple of years and watching how they progress, watching for them to turn over shorter priced (higher rated horses) and I honestly think that this is perfectly realistic and probable scenario. I think that if anything else is to beat them on derby day that they will have to be up to that sort of standard and beyond but as I have said I honestly think that that is improbable, I wont say it wont happen but logically looking at a balance of what has come through in the last few years and the fact that if there is another horse who is special enough to beat these two they will go to epsom (a hard track to race) with relatively little experience to take on two monsterously good sorts.
I dont know if this clears up what I mean Jackane, and I’m sure I’ve made a statement in here which I will take flack for and have to re-explain, as I have worded it too specifically. Hopefully it clears things up though.;)
Quote: from Bulwark on 1:52 am on Oct. 25, 2006[br]I honestly think however that had Scorpion not been ran as a pacemaker for HR on that occasion he had all the class to figure much further up the field that day.<br>quote]
:o
A pacemaker?? Did he not make most of the running in his St Leger on very similar ground??
He would certainly rank as the best pacemaker to have ever run if that was the case…
And also the shocking figures of St Leger winners in the Arc to back-up the poor showing…
He did, but doing it in a slow leger and doing it in a blisteringly fast arc are two different things all together, he was absolutely going hammer and tongs at the front of the field (I was chancing my arm with a montjeu tricast and was watching those 3 and couldnt beleive what he was doing and Motivator wasnt far off him, if you look at the racing posts comments in running for the race you’ll see that HR and scorpion are coupled.
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Bulwark<br> Though I doubt you will ever accept it, it is the way you read form that is wrong.<br> Scorpion doesn’t have a ‘turn of foot’ at 12f, the only race he has ever won at that distance was a strongly run Grand Prix de Paris where he stayed on better than a modest bunch of opponents. His only other runs at that distance producing a 2nd in the Irish Derby, (again with a modest bunch behind him), and a lstd defeat by Frank Sonata.<br>Given that he made all to win a heavy ground St Leger, it was no surprise to see him up in the vanguard in the Arc then, his only realistic chance of featuring in the race, and nothing to do with him running as a pacemaker. He simply did not have the ‘speed’ to be ridden any differently. (The actual pacemaker in the Arc was Windya, ridden to set the race up for Shawanda another stoutly bred 12f+ horse).<br> Likewise with Hurricane Run, his ‘blinding turn of speed’ in the Arc was nothing more than a very good horse showing his stamina in what became a war of attrition between half a dozen horses who all needed 12f+ to be at their best. Had the race been run at the same pace over a furlong further, there is little doubt that the out and out stayer Westerner would have been the one with the ‘blinding turn of foot’!<br> As you say, there is more than one way to read form, yours is in error, and for exactly the same reason that you continually misunderstand Sergeant Cecil.
"Have I ever actually said that horses with Dam side stamina are useless. ….. But in a few pages time sure why dont you just make out that I have said this again."
I haven’t suggested that this is what you are saying – it is just about clear that you are saying you mostly prefer horses over middle distances if they have a stamina influence for a sire, rather than relying on the damsire.
However, my point is that it is never that simple – and in some cases in blatantly wrong.  Prepotence is a very valuable issue to consider.
You say – "At 1m4f you can almost always guarantee that a Saddlers well colt will get the trip".  However, when crossed with a prepotent speed sire, in his case often Habitat, the resulting progeny will almost certainly have an optimum distance of around a mile.
With Danehills, the dam side is often so important that it can be used reliably to judge the optimum distance for the progeny – North Light for example was a safe bet to stay 12f just as efficiently as a Sadler’s Wells. ÂÂÂ
I have to say that your response to Jackane was probably the most logical one you have made and show you have a grasp of this which has not been evident in your earlier posts.
I would also like to point out that I don’t ‘google statistics’.  I have access to programmes, some of which I designed, all of which I help maintain, which can analyse pedigree data.  But thanks for saying I have above average knowledge, that is very kind.
Scorpion was not a pacemaker in last year’s Arc. He got fizzed up in the prelims (you may remember him breaking the parade), ran far too freely and then got stuck on the outside around the turn.
if you look at the racing posts comments in running for the race you’ll see that HR and scorpion are coupled.
Same owners – happens in France whether one is a pacemaker or not.
Quote: from reet hard on 6:32 am on Oct. 25, 2006[br] Bulwark<br> Though I doubt you will ever accept it, it is the way you read form that is wrong.<br> Scorpion doesn’t have a ‘turn of foot’ at 12f, the only race he has ever won at that distance was a strongly run Grand Prix de Paris where he stayed on better than a modest bunch of opponents. His only other runs at that distance producing a 2nd in the Irish Derby, (again with a modest bunch behind him), and a lstd defeat by Frank Sonata.<br>Given that he made all to win a heavy ground St Leger, it was no surprise to see him up in the vanguard in the Arc then, his only realistic chance of featuring in the race, and nothing to do with him running as a pacemaker. He simply did not have the ‘speed’ to be ridden any differently. (The actual pacemaker in the Arc was Windya, ridden to set the race up for Shawanda another stoutly bred 12f+ horse).<br> Likewise with Hurricane Run, his ‘blinding turn of speed’ in the Arc was nothing more than a very good horse showing his stamina in what became a war of attrition between half a dozen horses who all needed 12f+ to be at their best. Had the race been run at the same pace over a furlong further, there is little doubt that the out and out stayer Westerner would have been the one with the ‘blinding turn of foot’!<br> As you say, there is more than one way to read form, yours is in error, and for exactly the same reason that you continually misunderstand Sergeant Cecil.<br>
<br>Well, I have to disagree with you here, I first saw scorpions turn of foot in the Gallinule (i think) last year behind im spartacus, now you may question Im spartacus as a horse but at the time he wasnt just chasing him to the line, he made up ground like the rest were standing still, i think he was sent for the wrong derby first time round but, his performances in the Irish Derby (where he wasnt even favoured by o’brien) and the GPDP were brilliant, and you may say that the opposition was weak but just like in the leger he was an absolute class above. You one of these people RH that will that will remember Scorpion as no more than a leger winner and very little else, but I on the other hand will remember him as a very good 1m4f horse before he was ever a leger winner, and in the Irish Derby I think it was only fallon that seperated him and HR. I personally think from watching the Arc that he was run as a pacemaker for HR as he was constantly forcing the pace the whole way and where as I can see Gareths point that he looked to be free-wheeling, and it may have been the horse who threw his chance away, it looked more to me like it was pace forcing than freewheeling, also, S+HR may both be coolmore horses but HR is Tabor and S is magnier, and lets face it a beaten leger winner is nice but a beaten leger winner and an arc winner is better to take to stud.<br>We all obviously have different views on horse racing and I accept that others see it differently , but that is how I see it.<br>Also Reet Hard, if it had have been run as you say, same pace over an extra furlong I strongly disagree that westerner would have won. He had been towards the fron for most of the race and was keeping on gamely but Bago (who had won an arc 2secs fast the year before, and who like HR had been held to the rear) was flying at the end and looked to be more full of running.<br>I like your point about my form reading being wrong, please tell me a type of form reading that is always right, also, if I took up your style of form reading RH (ie. following whoever the BBC or Ch4 team tell me is good) then I would never have a winner bigger than 10/1.lol<br>And I dont for a second misunderstand Sgt Cecil, wasnt I right about him the other day, I even named the horse (as did sir harry, if I remember)) that beat him, or were you and Claire Balding right? I bet (your version of the racing post) Claire Balding said he was a cert beforehand…
Sal, im glad that is cleared up, it felt like this thread was going to go on forever, going back over the smae things, and I take your point about some sadlers wells being miling types, but I do accept that breeding, like almost every aspect of racing is not straighht forward. So what is this prepotence about then, or is it recommended reading?
PS if anyone feels ive been cheeky on this thread its nothing personal, its just a bit of banter, which I have been getting myself, so dont take offence…
If Scorpion was a pacemaker would you explain how at no stage did the horse hit the front?
He was always prominent, at the front, he doesnt have to run away out in front to be a pace maker, would itever occur to you that once at the front perhaps kinane was happy with the pace and just kept the pressure on…
When has a Ballydoyle pacemaker EVER been ridden like that. But he never tried to keep the pressure on as you put it. For much of the race he was trying to settle the horse.
It was obvious there was going to be a fast pace. Westerner’s trainer had one in for his mount who clearly needed it,while the Aga Khan had one in there (Windya) for Shawanda as well.
Once again you have absolutely nothing to base your assumption that Scorpion was a pacemaker for Hurricane Run. Also quite interesting that Hurricane Run has not had a single pacemaker in his race all year!!!
Quote: from Aidan on 8:22 pm on Oct. 25, 2006[br]Also quite interesting that Hurricane Run has not had a single pacemaker in his race all year!!!<br>
Was Near Honour running because Tabor was after pinching extra prize money in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and the Prix Foy then?
(Edited by davidjohnson at 9:27 pm on Oct. 25, 2006)
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