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Gord:
Are you not concerned about DBs previous runs at Cheltenham? Fully understand the genius that is Paul Nicholls could have ironed any niggles out!Not worried at all Gary,if you watch
Dodging Bullets
Triumph hurdle run as a 4yo you can see how physically and mentally weak he is,a trait he carried into the ‘Supreme’ and again the ‘Arkle’ as a 6yo which is no age for a National hunt horse.I had a good bet on ‘Uxizandre’ at 5/2 in November to claw back my losses Ante-Post on the horse for the Paddy Power,all the way round I’m thinking ‘Dodging Bullets’ is the horse I fear and he proved it running the fav close proving his Aintree running was all wrong.I thought then had ‘Dodging
Bullets’ had the benefit of a pipe-opener like Alan Kings horse he’d have beat me.Betfred were offering 40/1 about Pauls charge after the race and I snaffled it for the QMCC.When I saw 10/1 for the Tingle Creek I thought Xmas had come early.Dodging Bullets
is a different horse now he’s mentally and physically stronger and finally looks the finished article.Clock watchers like myself compare ‘Sprinter Sacre’s’ and ‘Dodging Bullets respective Arkle times rather than the visual performance and that alone tells you a great deal.
Did anyone really expect any better from Sprinter? It’s pretty obvious a horse isn’t going to ever really get completely back to their best at that age and after such a length of time out, but I thought he looked great and much better than I thought he would.
This was his first run in so long and on testing ground, take out DB and he’s just beaten Twinlight and Somersby by 5 and 12 lengths respectively, that’s incredible I’d say, two horses rated in the 160s, both with 3 runs under their belts. Now he’s had that run and will be on better ground in March I was surprised to see such a knee jerk from the bookies pushing him out beyond 3/1, should’ve lapped that up while I could!
Everyone is ignoring DB, he’s fit as a fiddle at the moment and apparently a different horse this season, give him credit I’d say.
I think the Queen Mother has potential to be a great race this year, all signs point to Sire De Grugy coming back well from injury, but with him and Sprinter probably not quite at their best, that really brings the likes of DB in to the race, I’d love to see Al Ferof (won’t happen) and Champagne Fever brought in to the race too. CF didn’t get home over 3 miles and has beaten DB both times at Cheltenham. And why they’ve stuck with longer distances with Al Ferof has always baffled me slightly. I think the 5 of them could finish within half a dozen lengths.
I am not sure how strong the Clarence House form will prove to be.
Coming into the race I expressed my doubts about the form of Twinlight and how reliable his new rating was. I am not sure Dodging Bullets had to improve any on his rating to beat Twinlight by the margin he did here.
Somersby is a good old stick but he’s getting on now and hasn’t won for a while. He set out on an all or nothing effort and made a bad blunder. He finished a good bit further back than he had behind Dodging Bullets last time, and again, the way Somersby was ridden, it meant that he had perhaps run poorly on the day, rather than Dodging Bullets putting in a big improvement.
Dodging Bullets was suggested beforehand as not being suited by the going and while he’s clearly got to respected now that he’s found his form, there wasn’t any confidence behind him going into the race, with Sprinter Sacre being the one everyone wanted to be with. He clearly put to bed any concerns about the ground but we saw how easy Barry Geraghty was on Sprinter Sacre and defeat was accepted pretty quickly.
For me it’s a race that throws up too many questions. How fit was Sprinter Sacre, how trustworthy is the Twinlight form, was Somersby given little chance with such an aggressive ride. Did Dodging Bullets really improve on the ground they thought wouldn’t suit and how far below his 188 rating did the top rated chaser actually run?
I’ll stay away from those questions and back Sire De Grugy.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at how powerfully he passed the post, I’d say DB had about 5lbs in hand – maybe more.
Yeah I do completely agree, Somersby, while still capable is obviously on his way down, and Twinlight I’ve never rated. I guess I was trying to redress the balance from those who think Sprinter Sacre is finished, I don’t think that’s quite the case, he did better than I expected and I think come March he could surprise those people a tad.
I’m with you about Sire De Grugy, without the injury I’d have my house on him, but you just never know how horses are going to be coming back, though I’m still sure he’s where the smart money is going, do you take the 3/1 now or the risk that he might get cut to near evens after the game spirit next month?
Dodging Bullets has surprised me this season, it’s not so much what he’s beat, but the manner. I’ve never rated him, always thought he was just going to be a stayed on one pace kind of horse at a decent level, but he looked really keen at the end of these 2 races in testing ground and I was impressed enough in the Clarence House to back him yesterday after being a big critic of his last year. He looks strong now, whether he has a good enough finish on better ground remains to be seen.
I think Sprinter Sacre ran an absolute belter and what I think is really important is Barry Geraghty looked after him. Because of the ride Geraghty gave the horse I don’t think Sacre will bounce next time.
The ground will be almost certainly quicker at Cheltenham, Geraghty won’t hold Sprinter back quite so far and I fully expect him to win the Champion Chase again. Betvictor are still going 3/1. If Sprinter gets to Cheltenham he’ll be nowhere near that price. I’ll happily take the chance on him getting there.
A little more time has gone by to let the brain digest the Clarence House.
As TAPK says, you’d think that Nicky Henderson would have had Sprinter Sacre pretty straight for his comeback given the old heart issues. Compared to his previous seasonal reappearances, it was a little lacklustre. It’s easy to forget how much of a monster Sprinter Sacre used to be! Barry G used to have to hold on very tight to stop this horse from tanking off into the lead from the off. That cruising speed wasn’t quite the same on Saturday. He was able to drop him in at the back without much more than a little freshness.
I’m not quite brave enough to back up my opinions with ante-post bets, but I’d lean towards Sire De Grugy now. Dodging Bullets can’t be trusted to replicate his best for at the Festival, so it’s the chestnut for me until I see any reasons to think otherwise.
He’s not always great in deep ground or first time up, so Sire De Grugy might even look a little more tempting after the Game Spirit.
Again after digesting the Saturday race I have come to the following conclusion :-
I thought SS looked great in the paddock and therefore ready to rumble. During the first part of the race he looked pretty ordinary but when he swept around the bend he looked the horse of old. BG was obviously tentative to then press on and may have thought he had the beating of DB without asking too many questions. DB had other thoughts. Viewing NH after the race he was obviously disappointed although he said he would be beforehand if he didn’t win. They have to be upbeat about his chances in March and therefore the post-race interviews reflected this. When the 7/2 price was quoted straight after the race I thought great value. Now I’m not so certain
SS will definitely improve for the run but how much further will DB improve if any? Has PN saved enough in reserve to get further improvement for the CF? He’s only young so you have to think so. The negative is PN has not had great festivals for the last 3 years ("only" 4 winners – one of them from a satellite yard). But the improvement PN seems to consistently get from his horses still surprises me. Perhaps it shouldn’t as imo he’s the best (including Ireland).
And then there is SDG. Again I will have to see how he runs in the Game Spirit. I think again connections will be disappointed if he does not win. Not sure what odds he is for this race?
So in conclusion I have about as much idea before the race Saturday about who will win the QMCC i.e. NONE
Heart definitely says SS though 
This race is becoming a real fascinating watch.
I just hope Champers doesn’t run. Can’t see his jumping hold up at pace. Ryanair bound surely.
I am struggling to find a bet for this race. Might have to be a swerve job. Routing for the Sire though.
This race is becoming a real fascinating watch.
I just hope Champers doesn’t run. Can’t see his jumping hold up at pace. Ryanair bound surely.
I am struggling to find a bet for this race. Might have to be a swerve job. Routing for the Sire though.
Champagne Fever jumped superbly in the Arkle last year and I’d view his jumping as a positive rather than a negative.
I am a huge fan of Champagne fever and followed him with plenty of money since losing to TE in a bumper.
For what it’s worth, I have never been overly sure on his jumping of fences. I will admit he has seemed to put his best foot forward in the bigger events and can’t really fault him in the Arkle or King George so it might be he brings his big game to the right events.
I have, however noted personally that of the other five chase starts the following have been reported.
16 Nov 13 – Errors and mistakes
26 Nov 13 Errors and mistakes
1 May 14 – Not fluent
13/ Nov14 – Mistakes
15 Jan 15 – FellIt is my personal opinion that he will struggle in a frantic top top class 2 mile race.
It is worth noting that he also lost to an outsider in last years Arkle. If he was CC material, I like to think he’d be winning that. Maybe I am being a bit harsh but for me he looks a 2m4 horse. Love him regardless.
Please guys just trust me Sprinter Sacre will absolute piss in!!!
Everyone loves to be a contrarian but this horse is OUTRAGEOUS.
I don’t care if he is not as good as the 2013 champion chase because he only has to be 85% to win this.
Bet anything else ya dumb if you ask me. But the more of you who think otherwise will help with the price so up to you.
But this horse cannot lose bar not turning up.Just watched the Clarence House race a couple more times and geraghty does not ask SS any sort of questions gave him such a gentle ride which was obviously intentional.
I also notice that as SS gained his confidence through the race his jumping improved dramatically and I can only expect this will improve with this confidence boost at Cheltenham. I really can’t see anything beating this super horseFairly quiet on this thread recently but we will have more to talk about after The Game Spirit on Saturday.
Sire De Grugy heads a field of six and is generally odds-on in early quotes but there has been a bit of evens on Betfair.
The other entries are:-
Mr Mole, Uxizandre, Vibrato Valtat, Upsilon Blue and Karinga Dancer. I can’t get enthused about any of them lowering the colours of the reigning Champion if he is anywhere near straight.
The trainer has said Sire De Grugy will come on for the race but that he’s fit enough to do himself justice. I think anything less than a good win on Saturday will spell game over for Cheltenham and the favourite has 11 lbs in hand of next highest rated horse Uxizandre, who ran a stinker last time when favourite behind Twinlight, albeit on heavy ground. Uxizandre’s form is nearly all at further and I doubt he’ll have the toe to deal with Sire De Grugy.
Mr Mole has more form at the trip but has been winning less competitive fare than the first glance at the bare figures suggests. He looks seriously skinny at 2/1 to me, given that he has 17 lbs to find with the favourite.
Of course Sire De Grugy has had an injury and we always question how well they will return from it, but you would think he’ll be somewhere like it for this race, and with his class and the questions on the next two in the betting, it would seem to me that evens is akin to seeing money lying on your doorstep, instead of the 2 pints of gold top and a copy of Big Un’s monthly that are normally there
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, what a crazy race that Game Spirit was. For Sire De Grugy to make one mistake was bad enough but to do so at the very next fence and come to grief was unreal for a horse of his profile. I would be very careful about getting carried away with Mr Mole after that, it was a farce of a race if ever there was one.
7/1 Sire De Grugy now and after today’s jumping debacle that price makes no appeal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, I took the opposite view of Mr Mole, despite what happened. He travelled with real enthusiasm. He’ll want to jump better at CHeltenham, but he hacked up today with some very tired horses behind.
!6 with Betfair is excellent value imo
SDG will not relish going to Cheltenham with such a horrible fall on his mind
This year’s renewal seems more than widely open.
Are novices allowed to run the Champion Chase?
If yes, what’s the point of running the Arkle if the horse could straight win the Champion Chase?
I mean, I really would like to seePtit Zig
in there, let alone
Un de Sceaux
. Both horses have been definitively the most impressives of the season so far in the 2m division.
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