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Anyone else think this is a very poor renewal this year?
The forecast soft ground might also prompt some withdrawals. Wesley Ward has already expressed doubts about his runners handling the conditions which puts a question mark against the favourite. In any case I don’t get the same sort of vibes about her as there was about Acapulco last year.
None of the british contenders who have won a race have particularly impressed so I think this might end up going to a maiden. MADAME DANCEALOT showed up very well on her first race at Chester only just going down to one of the best two year old colts around so at decent odds think she is worth an each way poke at least. REEH for John Gosden is another I think might be overpriced although I have a feeling she would appreciate better ground.
Ground has probably gone against her, but one Lady Aurelia would destroy this awful field and she probably still will on soft going!
Have you actually seen her run Goreisking or are you just guessing?
You say the same thing on every thread.
Seen her run pal, and she is like a 4 year old. The Americans are so far forward with there 2 year olds. She is a very good horse, she broke track record at Keeneland on her debut, was then breezed on grass and reports of scintillating work. Wesley said she wont be beaten also and he dosent talk sh*t quite frankly.
I think it is guesswork how most, if not all of these are going to handle conditions.
I have taken the 9/4 about the favourite. Would rather not back Dettori but a point and fire ride shouldn’t stretch him too much.
At the current prices of the others I think Camargue is the most appealing. Decent pedigree, progressive and some course form.
Definitely guess work about the going, if the ground was good-good to firm I would have a huge bet on the filly.
Seen her run pal, and she is like a 4 year old. The Americans are so far forward with there 2 year olds. She is a very good horse, she broke track record at Keeneland on her debut, was then breezed on grass and reports of scintillating work. Wesley said she wont be beaten also and he dosent talk sh*t quite frankly.
I have never known Wesley Ward to underplay his horses. He’s also expressed doubts about his horses on the going.
Do you ever do anything but tip the favs?
Favs for a reason…they normally win! Thats why I make so much
A fav in a group 1/2 will normally win especially if I say it will!Make sure you get on Lady Aurelia! Superstarrrrr
Not like u to tip a fav
I think it is guesswork how most, if not all of these are going to handle conditions.
I have taken the 9/4 about the favourite. Would rather not back Dettori but a point and fire ride shouldn’t stretch him too much.
At the current prices of the others I think Camargue is the most appealing. Decent pedigree, progressive and some course form.
I really love this Camargue of Johnsons, I’ve backed it on it’s last two runs – 2nd on the AW when it should have won and then won cosily as Ascot on good ground. I am slightly worried about him staying on soft ground however.. on his AW run he was caught on the line, he hung all over the track in the last furlong – now I don’t know whether that was greenness when he hit the front or whether he doesn’t stay beyond 5f as that was 6f and he was fine over 5f last time at Ascot.
I was suprised to see him priced up at 20/1 considering the strength of Johnsons 2yo team – does this signify a lack of confidence in the horse do you think? Is the price down to the soft ground? He really looks like a pure 5f horse to me (at least at this stage in his career) so maybe he might be vulnerable to something with a bit more stamina.
I haven’t seen the American horse.. is there any way we can guess which of these 2yos will go on the ground? Can their breeding help us?
The American horse Lady Aurelia is by Scat Daddy the same Sire of Caravaggio who didn’t seem to be inconvenienced by the ground yesterday…
Julie In The Crown and Stormy Clouds for me e/w. Both pretty experienced which can count for a lot in bad ground.
And Stormy Clouds looked progressive before encountering fast ground last time!!
Tbh I think the fav will take a lot of beating here as this is as weak a queen mary I can remember, in terms of the home challenge. Last years was stronger from that point of view and a Wesley Ward runner ran away with it. I can’t actually recall any British runner in this field winning a race and my thinking “Wow, that could be a Queen Mary horse”
That’s why I’ve gone with Madame Dancealot as she impressed me more in defeat than others have in winning. I also liked Reeh’s attitude even though she got beat at Nottingham.
Quince Dolly is another one to throw into the mix as her sire does well if soft is in the description, but yes if Lady Aurelia handles the ground I doubt they will see which way she went.
Wesley Ward said this morning that he believes she is that good that she can overcome the bad ground and perform well enough to win.
I don’t know though, I think I’ll leave this race alone.
I started a thread about Lady Aurelia over on the main forum back on 23rd April after her debut win.
I couldn’t get a price at the time because all the bookies were quoting Create A Dream at that stage, as the Wesley Ward filly more people were aware of.
When the odds became available I took 5/1 on Lady Aurelia and I would have been very confident of collecting on fast ground.
As I said on the thread I began, Lady Aurelia has a remarkable low action and it allows her to skim along rapidly on firm conditions. I would be far more concerned by that than the fact that Scat Daddy is her sire.
Confidence is lessened by the ground today, so I have had a saver on Al Johrah at 8/1 this morning. This is a fast filly in her own right and she does go on the ground. I’ll be quite surprised if she doesn’t place here and she could be the one to benefit if Lady Aurelia runs out of juice.
Lady Aurelia trapped like Ballyregan Bob last time and it was as dominating a performance as you could wish to see.
She may well blitz her field here but the ground could be a problem. At 5/1 I have a little wriggle room and am hopeful one of the two will win this.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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