Queen Anne Stakes 2009

[clivexx]

So it was Cattemole was it? Very petulant stuff by williams, as you say Max.

[andyod]

Nobody in modern racing in the British Isles has worked harder to keep the pace honest than Aidan O’Brien. He enters at least two horses if he has any question about the pace. Even enters three to ensure that it is honest when necessary. Running these horses are called team tactics when they work and getting the strategy wrong when it does not. It worked for Mastercraftsman in the St James Palace Stakes . But according to the critics did not work for Fame and Glory in the Derby.Some even hinted that all of Aidans were "triers" in the Derby. There was even a hint that they did not set an "honest pace" which might have led to the downfall of Sea the Stars.But also adds to the theory that they were all trying to win.The honest pace in the St.James points to just how good Sea the Stars is since the second was roundly beaten in the Guineas.

[Anonymous]

Ummmm NO. I am not backing odds on Fist. Paco Boy 7/2 = 22.2%, Main Aim 5/1 = 16.7% and now Alexandros 9/1 = 10%. 22.2 + 16.7 + 10 = 48.9. 48.9% is around 21/20 that is ODDS AGAINST. If you thought it should be odds on may be you should get on too. I backed something at around 21/20 that I believe has between an 8/11 and 4/6 chance. If you don’t understand why I should back 3 horses at combined odds of 21/20 what about one horse at 21/20, is that wrong?

Nothing if it wins mate.

The thing is you will take forever to make money out of the game if at all.

Anyway the best price I can find are 9/4 9/2 and 9/1 which is just under evens at 5/1 as you say is just over.

Most of the time you post you talk about backing 3 and 4 horses which most likely everytime you bet in a race you are backing at short odds. 1/1 to 2/1 at a guess.

That is the quickest way to an early exit or a vist to poverty street IMO

I know you feel you have more chance backing 3 horses in one race but in truth you are making all 3 horses even money shots to beat a 9/4 fav.

Logic tell me Alexandros is not an even momney shot to win the race in any language but if I do what you are doing that’s all I am going to get.

Even if I eliminate him I am only getting 6/4 on my cash.

it’s your money mate but you will need a lot of patience to make money out of that and IMO your time would be better spent studying videos and trying dig out 5 or 6 single bets a month and adjusting your stake accordingly.

I’m not saying I never back 2 horses in a race. I did this week but no way was I going to get 1/1 money about the horse I fancied most. You have to chose your races better IMO and watch out for the right opportunities

I backed Tartan Bearer AP at 5/1 let’s say my stake was 2000 pts then I bet 700 pts Vision D’etat 3/1. If my main fancy wins I am getting better odds than are available now and making 9300 pts profit if the other wins I make only 100 pts profit…….in other words I am still getting aprox 7/2 about Tartan Bearerer on my outlay.

To ensure an equal return if any of the 2 win I have to fork out another 2300 pts on Vision D’etat and if one of them wins I get 12,000 back for a 5,000 pt outlay, but the odds of 7/5 dont appeal to me and the possible loss is more than I wish to gamble on a race of his description.

I think tht’s where you are going wrong. You are looking for value bets finding them then taking all the value out of them by betting too many in the one race. Even when the odds are longer I’ve seen you chose 5 and 6 horses are very often dont find the winner……….I think I’ve had six conseciutive losers about twice in the last 2 years if that……you can do it in 59.8 seconds

BTW in the interest of the forum you won’t comment on me saying a fictitous book?. Don’t be so self rightoeus and patronising mate. I don’t think that is a slanderous desciption in any way whatsoever. If I make a book up it’s fictitous as I am not a bookie and wouldn’t lay the prices and neither would you lay yours.

Fist,

If I back 22.22 points @ 7/2, 16.67 points @ 5/1 and 10 points @ 9/1.
If the 7/2 shot won I’d win 51.1 points on the race.
If the 5/1 shot won I’d win 51.13 points on the race.
If the 9/1 shot won I’d win 51.11 points on the race.

Staking 48.89 points to win just over 51 points whichever wins.
By backing all three prices I am taking 1.045/1.
It is just the same as backing one horse at around 1.045/1.

Not that most of my bets are at such short combined prices.

However, I prefer to back one or two to win and one or two in savers.

3/1 Galdiatorus? You would either be very poor or very rich after laying that price. Be a que from Towester to Thailand

Read what I said Fist. I would NOT lay Gladiatorus at 3/1. 3/1 does not have a mark up to it.

You should count one bet as one whole race. The race above should be counted as one bet. I either win in the race or not. The profit on the bet equals the profit on the race.

You stick to your way Fist, I’ll stick to mine.

Why not show us how good you are by doing a Lays and Plays thread Fist? I have just started one. Of course if have not got the bottle…..

Then we can see who’s going wrong

Mark

I don’t bet everyday as I think it’s a mugs game to do so, but as for Ascot all of the following were posted on here as I backed them.

Ratio Ascot AP Bets
1 50 Possible Actual Return
price taken P.Return
4,000 win Yeats 4/1 20,000
4,000 win Gladiatorus 9/4 13,000
12,000 win Mastercraftsman N 7/4

33,000

1000 win Tartan Bearer 5/1 6000
300 win Vision DEtat 3/1 1200
5500 win Canford Hills NB 5/1

33000

500 500 place Rose Blossom 10/1 7250
3000 win Elusive Wave 3/1 12000
40 40 Place Borderlesscott 10/1 580
40 40 Place Cannonball 40/1 2080
40 40 Place Kayf Armais 8/1 480
40 40 Place Galient 16/1 880
1880 win Gladiatorus 5/2 6580
32340 pts win 136,050
660 pts place average odds 4.122727273
33000 total pts staked
I’m banking on Mastercraftsman or Canford Hills winning. If either one does win the worst thing that can happen is I break even.

Good luck with your selections Ginge the challenge is on. Sorry about mess I copy and pasted it of my xl spreadsheet

Yesterday was a quite day with just some small ew bets. But manage to make a profit again They were posted in Day 2 selections

10 10 place Ashram 12 1 40
10 10 place Spacious 11 1 157.5
10 10 place Twice Over 10 1 20
NR
10 10 place Caper Callie6 1 20
10 10 place Whaja 14 1 20

Looks like some tasty bets today so throwing caution to the wind. Have calculated that I need 1 of the 3 largest bets to win to break even and any 2 from 4 shows a good profit

12,000 Monsieur Cavalier 6 4 30000
2000 Take the Hint 3 1 8000
3000 Yeats 9 4 9750
12000 Freemantle 11 8 28500
50 RFC 50 M.Cavalier/R,head
Returns so far 67347.5
62200 bet to date

Yeats did the business and landed some healthy AP bets for me. It would have been unfair of me to have included all of these as teh total points ivested were very high. So with the tank built up again I have put all the profits from the listed bets back on today. Nothing left to prove really.

Ginge with 31 bets, as many as 4 selections in one race and only 1 winner I would recommend you find another hobby

Final Day Royal Ascot.
16000 Win Lillie Langtry 13 8 42000
2000 2000 place She’s a Character 20 1 54000
4000 4000 place Debussy 12 1 68000
5000 Win Elusive Wave 3 1 20000
5000 5000 place Yankee Doodle 9 1 66250
12000
107100

[Author]

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