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I reckon anyones wife could win on him with Frankie chasing her. You know what they Italians are like. Not like you have been chased by many Italian men lately……..that we know of
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I’m with the xenophobes- I’m glad we’re expanding your vocabulary on this Forum Fist
I’m deeply suspicious of the NAS form. He has to translate it to a very different track after a break after some big efforts, after travelling, under an inexperienced (of Ascot) jockey. If ever there was a horse that needed Frankie to set the fractions over the straight mile and do the difficult job of making all, it’s this fella. The jockey booking will rank up there with Murtagh getting off Fame and Glory afterwards. Add in the fact that the boys in blue have won a couple of poxy handicaps so far this season and I’m a layer at 2/1 or so.
The difficult bit is finding one against him- I’ve gone for Aqlaam at 12-1 to put his Lockinge disappointment behind him on better ground: I think he’ll stay the mile all right and I have vivid memories of him doing me a huge favour in last year’s Jersey.btw I just love the way Fist is making the case for every single Group 1 favourite at the Royal meeting- they won’t all win!
You a complete wally Carv and obviously don’t follow the post on here:
My AP bets at Ascot so far are Yeats 4/1 now 9/4, Gladiatorius 9/4, Mastercraftsman 7/4 now 10/11, Tartan Bearer 5/1 now 7/4, Clifford Hills 5/1 now 2/1 Rose Blossom 10/1 ew now 5/1, Elusive Wave 3/1
7 horses and only 2 were favourites when I backed them So I don’t need them all to win
BTW I have a saver on Vision DEtat 3/1 as I am not too confident about Tartan Bearer
Everytime you rtalk about me and not too me which dispays how ignorant you are. Stop trying to be a smart axx mate you’re making a comlete fool of yourself again.
I would say with those selections even if they are all beat I am pretty much on the ball.
You throwing horses up at 33/1 then shouting hurrah when one in 30 stoats might impress some people buut to me it makes you a Bengal lancer.
So mate if you are not going to talk to me then don’t talk about me.
Do I do that with you or anyone else on here? No I don’t so cut your silly childish crap out.
Absolutely rediculous behaviour for a grown man
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Calm down guys, please!
It’s bad enough that we have to deal with proper hooligans and transients, without 2 of our more respected and longer-term posters constantly having a go.Gladitorious is the obvious selection on form, but given the fact he is more used to racing round bends, do you think the straight Ascot mile might inconvenience him at all.
I still take he View that Paco Boy doesn’t stay ( *prepares for large dollop of egg in face ), so I rule him out.
Main Aim is an interesting runner, and I wouldn’t think Sir Michael Stoute would even entertain the idea of lining up in this field unless he thought his horse couldn’t shake them up. An improving colt – he’s my selection.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’ve decided to pin my Cesare slip to the wall. I had it between him and Aqlaam and I just feel that Cesare’s form at Ascot when coming off a break was more than enough to sway it in his favour. We’re betting on Aqlaam’s potential, not what he’s done on the track.
Also am doing Mac Love for a place. Might as well do a small RFC as well.
Cesare is surely too old to have the pace to win this-I’d love to know the last time an 8yo won a Group 1 at the Royal meeting.
The only other one I considered as a bet was Alexandros, but I’d say coming from handicaps to winning this is also unheard of.Queen Anne
Gladiatorus obviously deserves credit for his win in the Duty Free which has worked out very well. With 2nd Presvis going on to win a Group 1 and Alexandros an unlucky loser in the Lockinge. However, both of those were held up in on course that favoured pace horses on the day. Gladiatorus made all and may be a little flattered. Then in the charge of Mohammed bin Shafya and has now returned to Saaid bin Surror. With no pacemakers it is possible he will get a soft lead again. However, seems over-bet now and with Ahmed Ajtebi on board instead of Dettori, may drift on the day.
Dettori had his whip knocked out of his hand when beaten a nose on Alexandros in the Lockinge. Had been held up in Dubai but raced prominently which suited the race at Newbury. That was his best performance and is steadily progressive. Will need to improve again but that is not out of the question. Alexandros had….
Paco Boy, Dream Eater and Aqlaam behind him there. The rain softened ground may not have suited any of those three. Paco Boy, held up and pulled hard early when the pace was slow. Had to use his turn of foot to get in to the race and had nothing left in the final 100 yards. Stays a mile and acts on soft ground but probably did not stay a mile on soft ground. A faster early pace and quicker going should suit Paco Boy better.
Dream Eater ran a similar race to Paco Boy in the Lockinge, not settling and finishing 9th of 10. Was only ¾ length behind that horse in the Sandown mile but was getting 6lbs. Does not look up to Group 1 level.
Aqlaam should stay a mile and looked a top class horse in the making in the Jersey (on a firm surface). However, got injured there with a stress fracture. Still lightly raced and could yet improve if 100%. Despite the Haggas stable being in top form at Newbury was friendless in the market and ran as though not over his problems. May be best to look for a market move tomorrow.
James Fanshawe is (as last year) not in great form so far this year. Cesare is an Ascot specialist, unlucky in running in this last season. Is now an 8 year old and probably will need a best ever performance to win this on his reappearance.
Mac Love won the Group 3 Diomed and is also an 8 year old. Has good speed and was suited by the conditions at Epsom, a slowly run race on a sound surface. Nothing he’s done suggests a Group 1 win is on the cards.
Main Aim won a 7 furlong Group 3 easily from Beacon Lodge who won a French Group 3 easily yesterday. Beat Arabian Gleam 3 lengths but was getting 5lbs. Travels well over 7f and there’s a chance he won’t stay a mile. Sire Oasis Dream has got many horses who stay further than he did. Main Aim’s dam won at 1m as a two year old and half brother Home Affairs also won at a mile. Seems to settle well and is more likely than not to get the trip. Improvement has come with some give underfoot but has won on a firm surface.
Arabian Gleam has always looked best at 7f and seems thoroughly exposed at just below top class.
My 100% book for good or good-firm going:
Paco Boy 11/4
, Gladiatorus 3/1,
Main Aim 4/1
,
Alexandros 7/1
, Aqlaam 18/1, Cesare 20/1, Arabian Gleam 25/1, Dream Eater 40/1, Mac Love 800/1.
Have backed Paco Boy 7/2 and Main Aim 5/1 yesterday nrnb bog at Stan James. Will probably be putting a saver on Alexandros too. Hopefully Ascot will miss most of the rain.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI still take he View that Paco Boy doesn’t stay ( *prepares for large dollop of egg in face ), so I rule him out.
Make sure it’s an ostrich egg because I’ll have to line up next to you and cop it too. I still believe he’s a speciaist 7f horse.
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You don’t take criticism well, do you Fist- were you bullied as a child?
I have a 2 picture in my home gallery… one of my great great aunt. Lizzy Bordon and one of me at 5 years old with a huge axe over my shoulder.
I have no pictures of or memory of my parents who mysteriously disappeared when I was 4 years old.
At school I was bullied……………..Once
Is this the first time Frankie is not riding a Godolfin first string? If the ride is being given to the boy from the Dubai without as word of protest from the BC jockey then they are preparing him to take over from Frankie.This is major and not a word from the press.No matter how you shuffel the cards here Frankie gets the joker.
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Queen Anne
Gladiatorus obviously deserves credit for his win in the Duty Free which has worked out very well. With 2nd Presvis going on to win a Group 1 and Alexandros an unlucky loser in the Lockinge. However, both of those were held up in on course that favoured pace horses on the day. Gladiatorus made all and may be a little flattered. Then in the charge of Mohammed bin Shafya and has now returned to Saaid bin Surror. With no pacemakers it is possible he will get a soft lead again. However, seems over-bet now and with Ahmed Ajtebi on board instead of Dettori, may drift on the day.
Dettori had his whip knocked out of his hand when beaten a nose on Alexandros in the Lockinge. Had been held up in Dubai but raced prominently which suited the race at Newbury. That was his best performance and is steadily progressive. Will need to improve again but that is not out of the question. Alexandros had….
Paco Boy, Dream Eater and Aqlaam behind him there. The rain softened ground may not have suited any of those three. Paco Boy, held up and pulled hard early when the pace was slow. Had to use his turn of foot to get in to the race and had nothing left in the final 100 yards. Stays a mile and acts on soft ground but probably did not stay a mile on soft ground. A faster early pace and quicker going should suit Paco Boy better.
Dream Eater ran a similar race to Paco Boy in the Lockinge, not settling and finishing 9th of 10. Was only ¾ length behind that horse in the Sandown mile but was getting 6lbs. Does not look up to Group 1 level.
Aqlaam should stay a mile and looked a top class horse in the making in the Jersey (on a firm surface). However, got injured there with a stress fracture. Still lightly raced and could yet improve if 100%. Despite the Haggas stable being in top form at Newbury was friendless in the market and ran as though not over his problems. May be best to look for a market move tomorrow.
James Fanshawe is (as last year) not in great form so far this year. Cesare is an Ascot specialist, unlucky in running in this last season. Is now an 8 year old and probably will need a best ever performance to win this on his reappearance.
Mac Love won the Group 3 Diomed and is also an 8 year old. Has good speed and was suited by the conditions at Epsom, a slowly run race on a sound surface. Nothing he’s done suggests a Group 1 win is on the cards.
Main Aim won a 7 furlong Group 3 easily from Beacon Lodge who won a French Group 3 easily yesterday. Beat Arabian Gleam 3 lengths but was getting 5lbs. Travels well over 7f and there’s a chance he won’t stay a mile. Sire Oasis Dream has got many horses who stay further than he did. Main Aim’s dam won at 1m as a two year old and half brother Home Affairs also won at a mile. Seems to settle well and is more likely than not to get the trip. Improvement has come with some give underfoot but has won on a firm surface.
Arabian Gleam has always looked best at 7f and seems thoroughly exposed at just below top class.
My 100% book for good or good-firm going:
Paco Boy 11/4
, Gladiatorus 3/1,
Main Aim 4/1
,
Alexandros 7/1
, Aqlaam 18/1, Cesare 20/1, Arabian Gleam 25/1, Dream Eater 40/1, Mac Love 800/1.
Have backed Paco Boy 7/2 and Main Aim 5/1 yesterday nrnb bog at Stan James. Will probably be putting a saver on Alexandros too. Hopefully Ascot will miss most of the rain.
Mark
I’m a a total loss here to understand how you get to you conclusions on your betting.
Gladiatorus has been 9/1 since the betting opened up and has hardly been overbet. If he had been running in a better race than this he would still be 9/4. If he was trained by AOB he would be 4/5 fav on form.
You said yourself he’s a Group1 winner and the horse he beat into 2nd has won 2 Group1’s since.
The only other horse in the race is Paco Boy who many say is a doubtful stayer and if he is he couldn’t find a worse type to take on than aa strong font running horse like Gladiatorus.
In the Group 1 he did win he beat Natagora who ran in a total of 6 Group 1’s after she won our 1000 guineas and never won any of them. Just for the record the 3rd in that race hasn’t won in 10 attempts over the past 12 months.
Yet in your book you make Paco Boy favourite over Gladiatorus who you reckon is a 3/1 shot.
Maybe Paco Boy will win but there isn’t a bookie in his right mind would offer 3/1 Galdiatorus.
I will never understand why someone thinks they have to make up a fictitous book to try and pick a winner or calculate Value. Just how fictitous it is can be seen by what you had left over 800/1……you don’t get many of those floating about in 9 horse races do you? Bookies would get slaughtered if they laid prices like that…….200/1 a place ffs..even SMS might be encouraged to stop a few if he could get odds like that.
All you seem to do is cutting the prices of the horses you fancy down below what’s on offer to convince yourself they are value and manipulating some of the others like Gladiatorus and Aqlaam who you say is a 18/1 to make things balance up.
You say tou are backing 3 horses in a 9 horse race. I find that beyond understanding. even at a 3 2 1 ratio on stakes you are backing odds on no matter which one wins.
Waste of time having a bet IMO and plus leaving out Gladiatorus the odds are stacked against you.
Whole thing just seems nonsensical to me.
If you aren’t using current prices and manipulating them as an experiment make a book for The Queens Vase before any bookmaker does. You can then judge what horses really are value when they make their offers.
Making a book already knowing what is being offered has absolutely no point to it.
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Gladiatorus
would appear, in theory at least, to be by far the most likely winner – I wouldn’t read too much in to Dettori riding Alexandros – but I can’t see that
Arabian Gleam
warrants being 33/1. He ran well in this race last year following a decent effort in the Lockinge, looked certain to come on for the run when behind Main Aim on his reappearance and escapes the Group 2 penalty he picked up at Doncaster at the tail-end of last season.
Queen Anne
Gladiatorus obviously deserves credit for his win in the Duty Free which has worked out very well. With 2nd Presvis going on to win a Group 1 and Alexandros an unlucky loser in the Lockinge. However, both of those were held up in on course that favoured pace horses on the day. Gladiatorus made all and may be a little flattered. Then in the charge of Mohammed bin Shafya and has now returned to Saaid bin Surror. With no pacemakers it is possible he will get a soft lead again. However, seems over-bet now and with Ahmed Ajtebi on board instead of Dettori, may drift on the day.
Dettori had his whip knocked out of his hand when beaten a nose on Alexandros in the Lockinge. Had been held up in Dubai but raced prominently which suited the race at Newbury. That was his best performance and is steadily progressive. Will need to improve again but that is not out of the question. Alexandros had….
Paco Boy, Dream Eater and Aqlaam behind him there. The rain softened ground may not have suited any of those three. Paco Boy, held up and pulled hard early when the pace was slow. Had to use his turn of foot to get in to the race and had nothing left in the final 100 yards. Stays a mile and acts on soft ground but probably did not stay a mile on soft ground. A faster early pace and quicker going should suit Paco Boy better.
Dream Eater ran a similar race to Paco Boy in the Lockinge, not settling and finishing 9th of 10. Was only ¾ length behind that horse in the Sandown mile but was getting 6lbs. Does not look up to Group 1 level.
Aqlaam should stay a mile and looked a top class horse in the making in the Jersey (on a firm surface). However, got injured there with a stress fracture. Still lightly raced and could yet improve if 100%. Despite the Haggas stable being in top form at Newbury was friendless in the market and ran as though not over his problems. May be best to look for a market move tomorrow.
James Fanshawe is (as last year) not in great form so far this year. Cesare is an Ascot specialist, unlucky in running in this last season. Is now an 8 year old and probably will need a best ever performance to win this on his reappearance.
Mac Love won the Group 3 Diomed and is also an 8 year old. Has good speed and was suited by the conditions at Epsom, a slowly run race on a sound surface. Nothing he’s done suggests a Group 1 win is on the cards.
Main Aim won a 7 furlong Group 3 easily from Beacon Lodge who won a French Group 3 easily yesterday. Beat Arabian Gleam 3 lengths but was getting 5lbs. Travels well over 7f and there’s a chance he won’t stay a mile. Sire Oasis Dream has got many horses who stay further than he did. Main Aim’s dam won at 1m as a two year old and half brother Home Affairs also won at a mile. Seems to settle well and is more likely than not to get the trip. Improvement has come with some give underfoot but has won on a firm surface.
Arabian Gleam has always looked best at 7f and seems thoroughly exposed at just below top class.
My 100% book for good or good-firm going:
Paco Boy 11/4
, Gladiatorus 3/1,
Main Aim 4/1
,
Alexandros 7/1
, Aqlaam 18/1, Cesare 20/1, Arabian Gleam 25/1, Dream Eater 40/1, Mac Love 800/1.
Have backed Paco Boy 7/2 and Main Aim 5/1 yesterday nrnb bog at Stan James. Will probably be putting a saver on Alexandros too. Hopefully Ascot will miss most of the rain.
Mark
I’m a a total loss here to understand how you get to you conclusions on your betting.
Gladiatorus has been 9/1 since the betting opened up and has hardly been overbet. If he had been running in a better race than this he would still be 9/4. If he was trained by AOB he would be 4/5 fav on form.
You said yourself he’s a Group1 winner and the horse he beat into 2nd has won 2 Group1’s since.
As I said Fist, I think Gladiatorus may have been flattered by that run (easy lead) and Presvis and Alexandros did better than distances suggest (held up on a day / race that favoured pace). May be overbet was the wrong word to use (sorry), I only looked at the betting a couple of days ago, thought he must have been backed. The horse is also now with an inferior trainer than when he won that race. One who is yet to hit top form. Not saying Gladiatorus won’t win, just is (IMO) a poor price Fist.
The only other horse in the race is Paco Boy who many say is a doubtful stayer and if he is he couldn’t find a worse type to take on than aa strong font running horse like Gladiatorus.
IF
given an easy lead again Gladiatorus will indeed be difficult to peg back.
In the Group 1 he did win he beat Natagora who ran in a total of 6 Group 1’s after she won our 1000 guineas and never won any of them. Just for the record the 3rd in that race hasn’t won in 10 attempts over the past 12 months.
There are several good form lines with Paco Boy, it does not have to be a Group 1 race to be a Group 1 winning performance.
Yet in your book you make Paco Boy favourite over Gladiatorus who you reckon is a 3/1 shot.
The 3/1 is not a bookies type of price Fist. Adding a mark up I’d offer 11/4 or possibly 5/2 about Gladiatorus.
Maybe Paco Boy will win but there isn’t a bookie in his right mind would offer 3/1 Galdiatorus.
Excellent, why think the same as the bookies? If I did there’d be no point betting.
I will never understand why someone thinks they have to make up a
fictitous
book to try and pick a winner or calculate Value. Just how
fictitous
it is can be seen by what you had left over 800/1……you don’t get many of those floating about in 9 horse races do you? Bookies would get slaughtered if they laid prices like that…….200/1 a place ffs..even SMS might be encouraged to stop a few if he could get odds like that.
For the benefit of the forum Fist, I will ignore that slanderous remark.
Again the 800/1 (0.125%) is not a bookies price, if it was a bookies price I’d offer 200/1. And my book is a win only, I don’t take in to account each way betting.
All you seem to do is cutting the prices of the horses you fancy down below what’s on offer to convince yourself they are value and manipulating some of the others like Gladiatorus and Aqlaam who you say is a 18/1 to make things balance up.
I make Aqlaam a 5.25% chance, 5.25% = 18/1, sorry but that’s just how it is. 5% would have been 20/1, 5.75% 16/1.
You say tou are backing 3 horses in a 9 horse race. I find that beyond understanding. even at a 3 2 1 ratio on stakes you are backing odds on no matter which one wins.
Ummmm NO. I am not backing odds on Fist. Paco Boy 7/2 = 22.2%, Main Aim 5/1 = 16.7% and now Alexandros 9/1 = 10%. 22.2 + 16.7 + 10 = 48.9. 48.9% is around 21/20 that is ODDS AGAINST. If you thought it should be odds on may be you should get on too. I backed something at around 21/20 that I believe has between an 8/11 and 4/6 chance. If you don’t understand why I should back 3 horses at combined odds of 21/20 what about one horse at 21/20, is that wrong?
Waste of time having a bet IMO and plus leaving out Gladiatorus the odds are stacked against you.
No it is not.
Whole thing just seems nonsensical to me.
I thought it might Fist.
If you aren’t using current prices and manipulating them as an experiment make a book for The Queens Vase before any bookmaker does. You can then judge what horses really are value when they make their offers.
Making a book already knowing what is being offered has absolutely no pint to it.
If I decide to bet in the Queens Vase I will Fist (doubtful). Once you are used to making books like this it does not matter if you know the prices.
If you excuse the aftertiming (to explain something):
Having a quick look at the 3:40 at Salisbury yesterday, I thought Palace Moon had an excellant chance. Yet working my book out I had it a shade of odds against. Ended up backing Judd Street. Had I not made a book I probably would have backed Palace Moon.Opinions are what the game is about Fist (emotion for thumbs up).
Mark
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
One thing that has always puzzled me, Mark – do you actually work in percentages (rather than simply saying that Horse A, on balance, should be 4/1) and if so, how do you arrive at the figure you award?
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