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Champions Sprint 2016

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  • #1265566
    hein bollowhein bollow
    Participant
    • Total Posts 789

    Forgive me if it’s quite early, but I’m really burning for this!
    Late congratulations to all who got the Arc winner, I was terribly wrong with the yellow dotted horse, but at least I didn’t back him. I also had a successful weekend thanks to Marsha, she’s a four legged goddess!
    But now looking ahead:
    I would assess it a two horse race between Quiet Reflection and Limato, but would Limato even run if it rains?
    I know that this Shalaa has returned, her comeback race was quite impressive, but I wouldn’t rate her good enough to be a real danger. What do you think?
    I have another question: 7/2 for Quiet Reflection is quite low, would it be better to wait for the day of the race?
    Cheers and good night, HB

    #1265568
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21536

    It’s never too early to be putting up a thread mate.
    I’m sticking next years Arc winner up soon, once it’s confirmed the horse will be in training next year.
    You’re bang on about Limato and the possible going, a big negative for that horse if that’s what turns up to be the case. Quiet Reflection on the other hand would relish it, she’d be my choice even at the 7/2, I believe she has been placed very well and had decent breaks between races. Shalaa is great but this will be a big step up from the other day and the bounce factor is a possible here and I’m not sure about this 80% stuff coming from Gosden and Dettori but if he’s back to his best it’ll be some race.

    Member since March 2008
    #1265627
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6584

    I had hoped that SIGNS OF BLESSING would have come to this race
    via the Haydock Sprint Cup (as I’d backed him) but Francois Rohaut had decided to
    put him away after his LARC PRIX MAURICE DE GHEEST win at Deauville in early August
    with this race as the target. He looked to have improved in that race, and won as he
    liked without breaking sweat.

    He has only had two forays over the channel, both at Ascot, the first at 3 where he
    led the a Group 3 6f race until 2 out before tiring. The latter was in the Diamond
    Jubilee Stakes in June this year where he did considerably better, finishing a neck
    and shd behind Twilight Son. He had The Tin Man a further 5L behind, who subsequently
    won the Hackwood Stakes and was runner up in the Haydock Sprint Cup behind Quiet
    Reflection. With what looked to me like an improved run last time out at Deauville,
    SOB’s odds of 16/1 looks decent value, considering The Tin Man is vying for 2nd fav
    around 7/1.

    I’m more scared of Limato than I am of Quiet Reflection. The going at Ascot was soft
    on Saturday, but if the forecast is right between now the 15th, there is virtually
    no rain forecast and with reasonable temperatures and a fair bit of drying wind I don’t
    think things will be any worse than good with the possibility of a tad firmer. Quiet
    Reflection has won 6 out of her last 7, the only time she was beaten was on GF. She
    clearly likes a lot of cut and I don’t think she will get it. Limato beat her fair and
    square on that occasion and with decent ground, unlikely to have any mention of soft
    in it, I don’t see why that would be reversed.

    There will be a few that will drop out between now and then, but Signs Of Blessing,
    barring a mishap, will appear regardless of conditions. 16/1 e/w looks a sound bet to
    me.

    #1265638
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3444

    Got my eye on him as well BigG, certainly a great e/w price at the moment. :good:

    Just waiting to see what the plans are for my other fancy Washington DC who seems to be coming good at the right time for this meeting.

    Best of luck

    #1265856
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21536

    Do you think Limato is going to run BigG..?
    Massive at 10/1 but at that price looks an unlikely runner

    Member since March 2008
    #1266048
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3444

    Hearts ruled my head. Washington DC @ 16’s to win.

    Only entry from AOB so you would think he would want a runner in this G1.

    Seems to be improving quite a bit towards the end of the season. Ran a fine race over 5F in France.

    #1266085
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6584

    Do you think Limato is going to run BigG..?
    Massive at 10/1 but at that price looks an unlikely runner

    I think it will depend on how he came out of his win at Chantilly Nathan. It would only give
    him 2 weeks between the 2 races, but he didn’t appear to have had a hard race, he won comfortably.
    It will be down to how Henry Candy thinks he has come out of the race. I’ll give you that it does
    seem a bit generous of PP going 10/1, do they know something that we don’t?

    As much as I would love to see him run, from a betting perspective it wouldn’t break my heart if
    he stayed away, as Signs Of Blessing is my sole bet. This has always been the plan for SOB, and I
    think that the 16/1 that is still on offer represents decent value. I think he will be a lot
    shorter come Saturday week.

    #1266332
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3444

    Went with my head and backed yours BigG on the exchanges @20’s to win.

    Added an e/w @ 20’s with 365

    #1266350
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6584

    That’s a great price botchy, lets hope he does us both a favour :good:

    #1266353
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5768

    THE TIN MAN 8/1

    Loves Ascot ignore that run in Diamond Jubilee.Last two runs been very good 2nd in group one and winner at Newbury as long he breaks well do not see him out of 1st 3

    #1266362
    muggins_here
    Participant
    • Total Posts 62

    I think Shalaa has a good shout here. Doesn’t have alot to find to be in the shake up.

    #1266579
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3444

    What a days racing this weekend promises to be. This looks like being the 6F race of the year as most do, if everyone lines up. :yes:

    #1266594
    raymo61raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4753

    I have backed TWILIGHT SON at 10/1 in the hope that the word soft comes up in the going description !!

    #1266595
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21536

    I hope someone nabbed the 10’s on Limato 11/4 fav now but still not guaranteed to run.

    Member since March 2008
    #1266644
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6584

    I wish I had now Nathan, that “over generous” 10/1 on Limato I mentioned 3 days ago looks
    bloody HUGE now. Generally 2/1, with a tad of 11/4, it certainly wasn’t my hard earned that
    brought about the tumble….not a penny on.

    I haven’t changed my mind, Signs Of BLESSING will do for me, and I still think Limato is
    the biggest danger. I suppose the good thing is that it has unsettled the market and pushed
    prices out. SIGNS OF BLESSING is out to 20/1, so I’ll top up a little.

    Librisa Breeze has risen 21 lbs in the last six months, and won with such a huge turn of foot
    at the end of the Totescoop6 Challenge Cup last time out at Ascot that I’m not sure that he’s
    not even better than his new mark. He would however have to be some horse, who has done all his
    winning over distances between 7 and 10f, to win a top race like this, having never run at a
    distance this short. Ivory had him entered in this and the Balmoral Handicap over 8f on Champions
    Day, but this is now his sole entry. The pace in this will make up a bit for the drop in trip, and
    whilst this is undoubtedly a big step up, he’s an interesting contender with that electric turn of
    foot. How much the race at Ascot took out of him only Ivory will know. 2 weeks isn’t a lot of time
    to have him spot on, and he’ll have to be, so I’ll wait for the 2 day decs before deciding if I’ll
    chance a bet. If he’s still there I reckon he’s e/w value, having been also pushed out in the betting
    to 12/1

    I can’t disagree with you muggins_here, Shalaa looked class last year and is probably, of the
    fancied runners, the one open to most improvement in the race. Considering he was off for a year,
    he would be entitled to come on from his comeback win at Ascot at the start of the month. As long as
    the dreaded “bounce factor” doesn’t come into play, the 7/1 looks well worthy of consideration. Good
    luck with him :good:

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