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To do well at football betting a punter still has to “study form” just as much as in racing…
Knowing the recent form of each individual player, whether there’s likely to be a change in personel, injuries and/or formation. How well do those players do in that formation? Do the defence/forwards do well if there’s a change in that area? Is the team and each individual player full of/lacks confidence? Are they scoring a lot and if so is it becauese they’ve been playing against inferior teams? Are they letting in goals and if so is it purely because of playing against superior teams? Are they doing better than results suggest (if been playing against superior rivals)? How well is the team playing at home/away and how well are they doing in their last six (or more) matches? How is their record against the team concerned? What is the record of the manager against the opposing team/manager? Is the weather going to be good (can be a great leveller)? Has the team had a hard journey in Europe that week? Is there a bigger match coming up and are players going to be at their best and/or are the best players going to take part?…
Every one of these questions needs to be taken in to account (and probably stuff I’ve forgotten) about both teams – not just one. All this is necessary to come to the correct decision; ie being able to evaluate form in to chance and therefore what the value bet is.
So imo betting on horses is a lot easier than football ;-). Others will be able to do all the above, but make no mistake – punters studying football will need to put just as much time in as successful racing punters.
Value Is EverythingI highly doubt many football punters go into any of the variables before placing a bet.
The fixed odds coupons for Saturday used to arrive in the shop on Tuesday and guys would be filling them in for the weekend fixtures without waiting for all the events that might potentially transpire before 3pm Saturday.
The glory of the football match as an attractive betting medium is the simplicity of the selection process due to only the three selections possible, 1, X or 2. Mind you, even that would mystify some punters as they tried to claim a win after extra time and penalties, despite there clearly being odds for a draw, making it obvious that the odds were for 90 minutes.
Most punters I knew picked the Chelsea’s, Man Utds, Liverpools etc and whichever teams were near the top of the League, rather than wondering if, historically, Halifax had a bad record playing Exeter City on Tuesdays in rainy weather following Cup replays and when there was also an “R” in the month.
The coupons appeal because you know exactly the odds you are getting and the sections list let you know the minimum you can win before you bet. If backing a horse, the odds are often unavailable until pretty close to the race and withdrawals can lead to the dreaded rule 4 bugbear that has peed off many a punter when 25p in the quid is taken off.
A novice going into a betting shop choosing between the minefield of horse races and factors involved therein or opting for a football coupon where one from each section gives them a guaranteed minimum of £130 for five results on a fiver investment, may find the latter option much more simple and appealing. Likewise, sticking a fiver in one of the FOBTs and taking a spin on the roulette wheel gives instant gratification and they also know that they are competing on exactly the same playing field as every other player, unlike horse racing, where form studiers or those with inside information could be well ahead of the novice punter.
Horse Racing is a lot of work and that is assuming you can access all the information for free as well. From my point of view the internet has made it much easier to find form and ratings and information regarding where horses are likely to go next and, importantly in some cases, where they are not going. Twenty years ago I wouldn’t have had access to all of the data and newspaper articles at the click of a button and I can’t see any reason why it is harder to get winners now than it used to be. Maybe more of the mug money that used to go on horses is going into football and FOBT’s, hence the reason bookies need to control the amounts won by people who seem to know their horses. It is certain that bookies will love FOBT’s because the punters, as a whole, can never finish ahead of the Firm.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Horse backers are terminal losers if they don’t understand the problem of ”disguised ability”. Don’t listen to Ginger, he is a man of limited means as he described in a reply to Professor Trubshawe some months ago.
The exchanges allow connections to recoup costs in entering their charges in races where the intention is to lose so that they can now afford to send horses out as many times as is necessary to allow generous future prices. This is the main difference between now and pre exchange days that the original poster alludes to. Horses that have shown nothing in recent outings suddenly hose up at double figure prices on a daily basis. Such information pointing to a runner making an attempt to win is only shared within the inner circle of connections to exclude the great unwashed.
I have known of this practice for a number of years and watched my own profits diminish as a result causing me to stop betting for two years. I am back with a new approach and am doing OK, you have to find a way of identifying disguised ability, it is not easy and my method does not win every time but I am making a profit. Ignore ratings, pundits and tipsters all they do is point you in the wrong direction.
People punt football because it is simple for them. Most kids grow up playing football and a large number carry on or at least retain and interest, thus everyone thinks they are Alex Ferguson and should be picking their supported clubs team every week.
Naturally the idea of betting on football is an easy enough process for them. When I was last playing football on Saturdays 4 or 5 years back, every one bar me had their exhaustive accumulator which included every possible league known to man, stretching out their ticket as long as dining bill for a table of 10, furious that Zenit St Petersburg had ‘let them down’ or a late winner by Paredes for Colo Colo had ended their dreams of that 4 figure pay out for a £5 stake.
Unfortunately horse racing just is not at the grass routes and many people come into racing late in life, racing’s advantage there is that it is a very well attended so it has one foot in the camp at least it just has to work out the next best step.
Hey Woolf, so far today there have been no double figure winners and 11 winning favourites from Kempton, Lingfield, Wolves, Catterick and Bath and the biggest priced winner was 8/1 and only 3 races where the favourite was not in the first 3.
One day in isolation means little and winners could have been backed into favouritism having been available at bigger prices. Whispers are not unknown. I backed Rodrigo Des Torres beaten 18l in his last two races, won today at 13/2.( Catterick ). It’s time to ditch your current methods, they are not working for you, admit it.
Woolfie,
Please explain why – if there’s so much sculduggery – why does each price pretty much win the percentage of races they’re expected to win?
If connections were always deceiving the betting public then the percentage would be way out.
Value Is EverythingI have known of this practice for a number of years and watched my own profits diminish as a result
You mean you’ve wanted to lie and blame others for your own inadequacies.
Value Is EverythingIt’s time to ditch your current methods, they are not working for you, admit it.
Take a look at my DLAP thread.
I challenge you Woolfie! Take me on in DLAP with your “current methods” against mine. We shall see which methods are most profitable over a year?
Value Is EverythingThe biggest mistake people made/make in my experience is back bad value short price favourites. Punters seem to look for a high strike rate, rather than take the more patient path to value and the overall profit. Most days you will see a short priced accident waiting to happen.
Whoops, Aberlady 7.50 Kempton Ryan Moore/Michael Stoute, forecast 15/8f, what could possibly go wrong? Market mover, goes off 1/2f and……gets beaten. Timeform had said she was probably the one to be on but had noted that 7/1 winner Justice Angel was a promising sort who should improve. There was only 4 lbs between the two going into today’s race on Racing Post ratings but punters assume that the Stoute/Moore filly will automatically improve more.
As Elvis Costello sang:-
“Accidents will happen, we only hit and run, I don’t want to hear it, cos I know what I’ve done”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ginger stop making a fool of yourself, your method involves backing horses that you know are going to lose, no serious backer would entertain such a system. I am not putting up my selections for forum regulars to back, supercilious bunch that they are. Here’s an idea, pick just one horse per race to see how you get on, do that for a couple of weeks. It will demonstrate if you are genuine or just another fraud.
Ginger stop making a fool of yourself, your method involves backing horses that you know are going to lose, no serious backer would entertain such a system. I am not putting up my selections for forum regulars to back, supercilious bunch that they are. Here’s an idea, pick just one horse per race to see how you get on, do that for a couple of weeks. It will demonstrate if you are genuine or just another fraud.
Surely not a sheep in Woolf’s clothing?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ginger stop making a fool of yourself, your method involves backing horses that you know are going to lose, no serious backer would entertain such a system. I am not putting up my selections for forum regulars to back, supercilious bunch that they are. Here’s an idea, pick just one horse per race to see how you get on, do that for a couple of weeks. It will demonstrate if you are genuine or just another fraud.
If I were backing the wrong horses then backing more than one horse in a race would only result in losing more, but that is not the case.
So there’s me, showing a good profit over many years with DLAP threads…
And there’s you, refusing to put up any tips what so ever…
Sadly, because you are chicken – people will need to judge for themselves who the “fraud” is Woolfie and who is “genuine”.
Value Is EverythingThese miserable old style punters who seemingly cant derive any pleasure from their betting unless accommodated for hundreds on a morning 5/1 that ends up 3/1 really should adapt or shut up.
I often wonder how many of these “cant get on” merchants are fantasists anyway.
Judging from your post you’re partial to a spot of fantasy yourself. Where are all these punters complaining about not getting hundreds on at the advertised price even if they had the foresight to know it would drop from 5/1 to 3/1?
While it’s quite possible there’s an odd one here and there I can’t remember any punter complaining about not getting hundreds on at advertised price in recent memory and don’t remember anyone complaining on this or any other forum about it.
Where did you hear about it? Can’t be that someone’s confided in you as you’re slagging them off on a forum.
So we’re left with the most logical explanation, that you made it up in a very poor attempt to give some credence to your point of view on the subject.
Early prices available on the GT v Woolf tipping battle (available until 09:30, subject to restrictions and trading decisions):
GT: 1/25
Woolf: 14/1
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