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Punjabi is a huge price.
It’s probably because the ‘wrong’ one of hendersons won the champion. If binocular had won by half a length and then came to punchestown he would be 1/2 or something now. Sure Quevega looked good but in a mares only race over 2m4f. Different ball game today and i’d rather take Punjabi who is proven at everything over Quevega who has some question marks.
If Whiteoak had run in the Mares Hurdle instead of Quevega she would probably/possibly have won just as impressively and she flopped badly in the Champion Hurdle so I think Quevega is well worth taking on running against the big boys – may even be worth laying her for a place at the 1.40 available.
Fiveforthree yesterday for me was a class bit of training by Willie Mullins to get the horse to step up in trip and win on the bridle..today as you said about Quevega, been running over longer trips and is the drop back to 2m going to be in favour. i believe the trainer has this spot on, and Ruby will hold this up until at least two out and sweep on by
Struggling to split the front three in the Champion. Quevega is too short on what she’s achieved so far – she might well win, but it’s a leap of faith to suggest that she can beat the reigning Champion Hurdler at a meeting he’s proven he likes.
Solwhit is the fly in the ointment, as it’s pretty difficult to rate the Aintree form. He could win and put himself in the Champion picture for next year.
Punjabi is the value at current prices. Trip and track to suit and in the form of his life. Should be favourite against the pretenders in my opinion, and has to be the bet at the prices on offer. Any longer and you could back him each way….
What will be interesting is the effect on the Champion Hurdle betting after the race. If Quevega wins well, she will surely be aimed at the Champion rather than the Mares’ race again. Hurricane Fly’s form will have been given yet another boost, and he should shorten at the head of the market.
Elsewhere on the card, does anyone agree that Bouggler looks a cracking each way bet against the two Mullins horses? Can’t have Cousin Vinny after Cheltenham (even though he was said to have travelled badly), and whilst Mikael DH will probably win, he’s hardly value.
Opinions?
Struggling to split the front three in the Champion. Quevega is too short on what she’s achieved so far – she might well win, but it’s a leap of faith to suggest that she can beat the reigning Champion Hurdler at a meeting he’s proven he likes.
Solwhit is the fly in the ointment, as it’s pretty difficult to rate the Aintree form. He could win and put himself in the Champion picture for next year.
Punjabi is the value at current prices. Trip and track to suit and in the form of his life. Should be favourite against the pretenders in my opinion, and has to be the bet at the prices on offer. Any longer and you could back him each way….
What will be interesting is the effect on the Champion Hurdle betting after the race. If Quevega wins well, she will surely be aimed at the Champion rather than the Mares’ race again. Hurricane Fly’s form will have been given yet another boost, and he should shorten at the head of the market.
Elsewhere on the card, does anyone agree that Bouggler looks a cracking each way bet against the two Mullins horses? Can’t have Cousin Vinny after Cheltenham (even though he was said to have travelled badly), and whilst Mikael DH will probably win, he’s hardly value
.
Opinions?
[b
I have to agree with Bouggler having a serious chance of a place claim and is about 16/1 in places and probably more on BF..unexposed but is coming into a high calibre race, but looking at yesterdays results Barker won well beating Forpadydeplasterer, so it is not impossible that Bouggler is also capable of a big run.
Resorting to slavish addiction to figures today, my selections for thestaying chase at 4.20 are Mattock Ranger, Mr Aussie and Seepeeoh all of which have have decent form hidden away amongst some mediocre stuff. If any of them click today they won’t be far away.
I can’t crack the 4.55, a decent novices’ handicap chase, in terms of prices. Equus Maximus and Tranquil Sea are my idea of a winner but I’ll keep my money in my pocket. There really ought to be a UK challenger for this race, but maybe there are plenty of opportunities this side of the Irish Sea.
Rob
- Total Posts 17716
Punjabi is a huge price.
.Completely agree: how often do you get to back a good Champion Hurdle winner at 7/2 against lesser opposition than he beat lto?
There’s no reason in his form to believe the ground will be a problem,and his trainers seems unperturbed by it, so the only slight chink in his armour might be his stamina for a slog, and even that seems unlikely.
Throw in a dual forecast in the unlikely event of Solwhit proving his superior, and the World’s your oyster.I have made no secret that I thought that the horses looked to be travelling on top of the ground at cheltneham on the first few days, and IMO Qevega was one of those who IMO those conditions would have helped significantly. On what IMO is significantly softer conditions today, I think she will struggle.
Have already mentioned Solwit and Jered, however also think that Muirhead ran a decent race when 2nd to brave inca on softer conditions here earlier in the year, and he may go well @ 9-1. Much as I like Won In The Dark as a horse I dont think they’ll go fast enough for him here. Not a great race all in all, as dont think there is much quality on this surface, one horse who I would love to see on today’s card is Numide, I think he’d have such a chance in this.
In the 455 I like
Golden Silver @ 14-1 with VC
, although his big weight wont help, his case he looks an e/w. Also like
Top Of The Rock e/w @ 14-1
in the same race and fancy him to go well.
My earlier selection of
Roberto Goldback
has drifted to
25-1
so have had a little e/w accordingly. And
Scorcerer is 7-1
with Lads so will have a little go on him too.
He’d got it won from miles back and probably travelled twice as far as every other horse! I was expecting him to pull up with the way he was jumping until I saw the jockey looking behind him for any possible danger. Don’t think the horse broke sweat at all!
Nearly had a heart-attack there. I’m still on the bandwagon but what an awesome performance from Solwhit giving away all that ground.
Amazing; think people will no longer look on Punjabi as an accidental winner of the Champion Hurdle, and Sizing Europe is on his way back. brilliant race, and the winner is only a 5 year old.
On better ground and a stiffer track you would expect Punjabi to turn the tables. Bookmakers must be looking forward to a nice bonfire of Quevega Champion Hurdle tickets. At no stage did she ever look likely to win.
The bonfire will be if WP doesn’t target her at the race Stilvi – which looks more likely now rather than any lack of ability on her part. She handles Cheltenham well, goes on the ground etc. she’ll be a short priced favourite for the Mares Hurdle at least even with Whiteoak in there.
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