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“TT’s 2nd at Ascot on unsuitable ground (for him) was a decent run, as well as his 2nd at Baden Baden, so one never knows…he might just surprise…again.”
One of my (many) appalling character traits is that I am incredibly arrogant where winners I have backed at long prices are concerned.
Few thought Torquator Tasso could win last year, but I remember Ivanjica and Star Appeal and thought the horse value at 130 at Betfair Exchange given the uniquely-atrocious ground.
The upshot of his win is I remind the forum I backed him at least 57 times a week and I have long since convinced myself I know the horse better than anyone, including his trainer.
He was runner up in one of the worst King Georges I have ever seen and for me the only way he could win the Arc again is if it’s virtually unraceable again.
But best of luck and if he wins on Sunday I deserve all the derision I shall richly deserve for deserting him!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“If the BBC forecast is correct then yes”
The Beeb use Meteogroup these days.
UK MetOffice forecast is totally different.
Toss a coin
Racing Post is already giving Longchamp ground as soft and one weather forecast says 80%+ chance of showers on and off all week but more rain likely late Friday early Saturday morning and again Sunday afternoon. Combined you could be looking at around 1″ (25mm) of rain
Based on that, I think at best it is going to be soft and more likely very soft boardering on heavy. Ascot on the other hand currently is good all round and they have had less than 4mm or rain in the last week although they are forecast 8-9mm on Friday.
I live in the Ascot area and there’s been plenty of rain today, though the weather apps say it only amounted to 2mm.
More rain forecast from Thursday.
As for Longchamp, French going descriptions are utterly unreliable and the ONLY way to have a good handle on what’s it’s really like underfoot will be to look at Saturday’s times.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Soft, very soft and heavy they seem to be able to get right more often than not, but good to soft seems to be the one that is very often wrong.
Times would be a more reliable tool but then with the way their races are often run (crawl early and then a home straight burn up) that too can be a little iffy to judge.
I wonder if the lads are regretting not putting in kyprios. If it is heavy then surely would have been placed at the very least. Anybodys guess how luxembourg will handle it. T tasso seems the bet now.
Have to wonder now whether Vadeni switches to Ascot as they didn’t want deep ground and while the Japanese horse is unproven on anything slower than good, he has won over 2m so his stamina is assured.
Being that so few have form on deep ground, I have had a bit on Alenquer who has won on heavy ground in the past and also run well on very soft in the Grand Prix de Paris over C&D.
Happy with my position with alpinista/TT, but i am slightly concerned by how good luxembourg really could be over this trip getting the WFA, onesto is another im concerned by, just something about his leopardstown run i really liked, he could just sit off them and pick this up very late on if getting the gaps, wont be adding either in but theyve concerned me enough to lay some back.
Cracking race!
And nathan i had to read back a bit to see what
Everyone else had said, ive got to be top two in terms of most polite on here! I type it all with a smile
This fixture is very much Europe’s answer to the Breeders’ Cup, I always think.
Surprised they put 5mm on parts of the track on Sunday given the forecast for the week ahead.
But it can’t be overstated how exceptionally desperate the ground was last year.
The time was 5.63 seconds slower than Waldgeist in 2020, who won on ground described at Very Soft.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The forecast doesnt seem all that bad if they miss saturdays rain? Or am i missing a more specific forecast
Looking at the radar on the BBC website there are several weather fronts sweeping down the UK and straight over Paris on Friday night and Saturday
Doesn’t look good unfortunately
Nrs galore incoming Sunday morning I think
Fair enough, looks like its dry & fairly warm either side of that, Longchamps drainage isnt the best though, so likely wont have time
To recover all that much into sunday late afternoonAs whoever alluded to above, there going stick readings are hilarious at best, times from the last few races will be a good indicator of where ittl be for sunday late afternoon
Just to let you all know they have watered at Longchamp
Seriously though I have had a couple of small each way bets on TRUE TESTAMENT 100/1 and MENDOCINO 33/1. I am sure I will have some more serious bets closer to the day but it looks a mess of a race at the moment and nothing stands out!
I agree Ham, it looks like being a cracking race this year, and looking forward to it a lot more than usual.
I’ve bet two at bigger prices, namely Mare Australis at 33-1, and Sealiway at 50-1. I’ll probably bet Sealiway again ew over the weekend.
Think il be waiting till the day for any further bets
The draw and ground will be key
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