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I’ve taken 50/1 ew 4 places on Gold Trip. His price relative to In Swoop makes no sense whatsoever he beat him fairly comfortably in the Prix Greffulhe and then there was little between them behind Mogul in the Grand Prix De Paris, there is a big assumption because of the ground In Swoop’s going to improve massively but that is over-factored into their prices now considering it is far from certain who will handle ground this deep. He looks a big strong sort who I think will get through it okay.
Considering that Sottsass and Japan appear to have gone backwards as 4 year olds and they both had ground to find with Enable anyway on last years Arc, as much as I don’t or didn’t rate the 3 year olds there is a chance the market is not taking them seriously enough considering the older challenge behind Enable is not that strong either. Persian King and Stradivarius obviously have very strong form claims but are both running over the wrong trip, I especially don’t like Persian Kings chances of staying in this ground and Stradivarius has been well enough found in the market. Its worth noting his two runs over 12F this season although both prep runs for other races would fall well short of his official rating so don’t take that literally as I highly doubt he will be reproducing that here, he probably wouldn’t need to in order to hit the frame.
Arguably Mogul could be 2nd favourite depending on how strongly you view the Grand Prix De Paris run and how literally you take the form, he’s comfortably beaten the Greffulhe and German and English Derby winners although you’d expect Seperentine to take a massive step forward from his run, it is plausible Mogul has just taken a long time to show his best and his price I think is fair enough of those towards the head of the market. I may just back him as well if they end up running RE the contaminated feed issues. Only in 2020 could that happen!
In summary wide open race, I expect Enable to win now but only in confidence levels to the degree the market has her at now and I’m not generally a player at those odds unless I’m certain they should be half that.
I’ve went with three of the aob runners.
Sovereign 100-1 ew, and win bets on Mogul 14-1, and Serpentine 16-1.
Just watch Japan win now.
nothing would sum up japan more than him winning by 5 lengths after being so dissapointing all season
Him and mogul are both very talented but very unreliable
simply getting Japan there has been half the plan:
winning with that name and Yutaka Take up would be legendary in Nihon.
Not a race I ever have too much involvement in but ripe for a surprise in the conditions. If you were judging the race on this season’s form alone I’m not convinced Enable would be favourite.
Of the main contenders SOTTSASS (8/1) is solid and hopefully won’t inconvenienced by the conditions. The other one that caught my eye is IN SWOOP (10/1 in a place or two), lightly raced, has won in soft, generally progressive and latest run off a break would have helped fitness.
Sotscass? Surely there is no form line that suggests he will finish in front of the mare? He didn’t last year. He hasn’t looked like an exceptionl French Derby winner
SHL
What a Mare she is. An unbelievably meteoric rise from being rated 60 something.
Is she entered at Ascot? Should get her ground in the stayers there, although I know the trainers keen to stay in France.
BUY THE SUN
Sotscass? Surely there is no form line that suggests he will finish in front of the mare? He didn’t last year. He hasn’t looked like an exceptionl French Derby winner
What if Enable hates the ground, form lines won’t come into it.
I actually think Japan has a chance now. Check his form on an easy surface 1114.
Maybe that’s just what’s he’s wanted all along!
I don’t need to back him as I have an old double with palace pier still going, would be so funny if that came in.
I’m very happy with my three. Sottsass, Serpentine and Japan.
I don’t think Enable is going to run well in these conditions. JGs comments don’t look good today
I still don’t buy the ground thing myself as to why she got beat last year
The race was run on very soft ground and was only 1 second slower than standard
So potentially Enable didnt stay as strongly as normal because she was ridden close to such a strong pace
The winner, 3rd and 4th were all midfield to rear
Magical was up with the pace and ran knowhere to form.
Ghaiyyath led and folded like a cheap suit.
The other prominent runner finished last.
This makes tomorrow a fascinating tactical race, obrein has both sovereign and serpentine. I can only imagine they will be sent off like the clappers to try to run the finish out of enable again and set it up for mogul and japan to come with late runs.
Obviously if that’s the case frankie will have to ride her with more restraint, but he can’t give two such strong stayers a lot of rope.
If they do go too fast horses like in swoop and stradivarius come right into play as they will be flying home.
Even without love its a fascinating race.
Iv backed enable but id still probably prefer to see stradivarius win as he’s my favourite horse. Id be very surprised if he did as he was too slow to win the leger but on this ground the form book can often be thrown out of the window.
Cant wait
Gl all
I must admit I am surprised to see Stradivarius as second favourite. He has no real form at the distance. I cannot see him being placed, even on the ground making it a stamina test.
Don’t think Longchamp suits Enable that well. Very fortunate to hold on against Sea of Class and stuffed by Waldgeist. Hard to fancy at evens.
BUY THE SUN
He should be 14/1-16/1
But I suppose he is such a popular horse he was bound to be over bet once Love came out
Youd even have to have doubts whether he will get stuck in the mud, Gosden is no fool so there must be some truth to his insistence that strad prefers decent ground
And this is probably borderline unraceable ground, i read somewhere soumillon said after the first race it was the softest hed ever ridden on
TTC, Waldgeist was a very good horse and Enable missed some work before the race where she beat Sea Of Class I believe.
Enables won 2 Arcs and very nearly a third already and Longchamp doesn’t suit her? Behave TTL!
I don’t even think last year is a comparison on the ground. It is a bog. JG said today there’s a “strong likelihood the ground will beat Enable“…. he also said the soft ground at Ascot is completely different to how it will be tomorrow. Stradivarius is going to hate it I think. This was a horse needing GF to be at his best
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