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Sandown today officially good-soft, soft in places on the Round Course. Race times back that up too. If Ascot is similar then (with no/not much rain forcast) likely to be either proper good-soft or even good by start of this meeting. However, BBC weather forcast says thunder storms are in the vicinity Tuesday night. Therefore, could imo still be anything between good and very soft come the Prince Of Wales. Sea Of Class‘s chance would be a lot less on soft than would be on good…
…And even so she’ll need to be at her very very best to beat the likes of race fit Magical and Crystal Ocean. Also only has 1 1/2 lengths in hand of Waldgeist on Arc form. All three have looked at least as good as ever this season and all proven with give underfoot… And then there’s the improving Zabeel Prince (who goes very well on an easy/soft surface) to worry about.
Am a great fan of William Haggas but – at this stage – imo Sea Of Class should be nowhere near 5/2.
Value Is EverythingI find the current Magical odds quite mad.
But at least they are based on the striking fact that she beat those ponies back in Ireland
They are closely tied Hein i think- but perhaps the lack of a run is why the market favours Magical? Not sure her wins in Ireland are the reason she’s favourite?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sure Jack, Magical’s “race fitness” is probably the reason for these insane odds. I just wanted to express that acting in those extremely uncompetitive events isn’t worth to much imo
Presume they wanted to make hay while she was fit considering last year she missed the main part of the summer through injury. Her form at the backend of last year is very good, in fact not much in it between her + SOC. Obviously, it depends what way SOC goes on her reappearance.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Those “ponies back in Ireland” included Group 1 winner Flag Of Honour who Magical has beaten with a lot to spare. Runner-up may be a bit better over further, but room between winner and runner-up to fit many top class horses. “Form” not only respects what horses are beaten, but also how far/easily they were beaten. Amount in hand means she’s at least as good as last year…
Beaten 3/4 length by Enable in the Breeders Cup (pair clear)… Sea Of Class beaten a short neck by Enable in the Arc. Therefore, on “form” Sea Of Class is around a 1 lb better racehorse than Magical… And Magical is race fit, proven on both a soft surface and sound surface and at the trip. None of which you can say about Sea Of Class.
That said, I agree that Magical’s current odds don’t make her backable. Previous 4/1 and 7/2 did.
Value Is EverythingSaying flag of honour might be a little better over further is a slight understatement
His campaign this year has been absolutely baffling
Running a 1m6f+ horse over 1m2f 3 times
For those who really think they can calculate everything on 1 lb, well good luck
And about Flag Of Honour or similar names I could quote good old Shania Twain: “That don’t impress me much”
Flag Of Honour may be a little better over further FF; but form lines through Latrobe (has met Flag Of Honour at various trips) suggest there’s not much in it. FOH beat Latrobe 2 3/4 lengths in the Irish St Leger. Lines through The King, Rostropovich and Latrobe pretty much confirming it. Unless… is it really a coincidence Flag Of Honour, Latrobe and The King all ran very similar amounts below their form?
Horses are more versatile than people give them credit for if they’re ridden properly. eg Flag Of Honour is capable of showing form at 10f not far below his 1m6f form… Providing he goes the same even/strong pace throughout at 10f… Making it a test of stamina at 10f rather than a test of speed at 10f.
Value Is EverythingDon’t see what you’re seeing tbh ginger there, everything I see looking at flag of honours record suggests he is far better over further than 1m2f
Very much looking forward to this race, definitely the best of the week with 4 very good horses in magical, sea of class, waldgeist and crystal ocean taking each other on
Hopefully they all run their race
Waldgeist could be the sleeper
Beating Flag of Honour is nothing flashy, but that isn’t the only horse she has beaten so what’s the big deal?
They are very closely tied on their 3yo form. One has come out this season and raced, one hasn’t.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!For those who really think they can calculate everything on 1 lb, well good luck
I do not calculate everything on 1 lb, Hein. If doing so I’d have Sea Of Class as favourite and be backing her – I don’t and am not. But analysing how good each horse is (and whether it is value) is important. Punters need to have an opinion about how much one horse’s ability is ahead of another… And I did not say Sea Of Class is a pound better than Magical, I said imo “on form Sea Of Class is around a 1 lb better racehorse than Magical”. ie Sea Of Class was beaten a short neck by Enable in the Arc. Magical was beaten 3/4 length by Enable in the Breeders Cup. So if Enable ran to the same mark in both races there is only around half a length between them. At 1m4f each length is generally regarded to be worth around 1 lb (I often have it slightly more). So a punter could argue there is half a pound between them or 1 lb or, or maybe Enable ran better in the Arc than Breeders Cup? In which case Sea Of Class could be 2, 3 or 4 lbs better. But Enable beat Cloth Of Stars around a length in the 2018 Arc, where as he was beaten 2 1/2 by Enable in the 2017 Arc. To me there is nothing to suggest Cloth Of Stars ran better in 2018 than 2017 and therefore Enable was imo probably a little below her 2017 best at Longchamp. So it seems unlikely she ran better in France last year than USA. Breeders Cup wasn’t so competitive as the Arc but that is in the distance back to the third. ie Had they run (and run to their Longchamp form) there is room to fit the Arc 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th etc in the 9 lengths between Magical and the Breeders Cup 3rd. That 9 lengths gap suggests to me that Enable ran to at least the same mark as Longchamp.
There is of course a possibility of being more or less than a lb in their current abilities, or maybe Magical is the better racehorse… But – using form – around 1 lb is just my estimate of the difference in their probable current abilities. The lb illustrates Sea Of Class is not much at all ahead of Magical. imo Fitness, race distance and probable ground point towards Magical having a better chance of winning than Sea Of Class. If it were on the firm side of good I’d have Sea Of Class as the fav, but that seems unlikely at this stage.
Value Is EverythingDon’t see what you’re seeing tbh ginger there, everything I see looking at flag of honours record suggests he is far better over further than 1m2f
In 2018 – Latrobe beat Rostropovich 1/2 length in the Irish Derby (1m4f).
In the Paddys Reward Club Stakes The King had been beaten a total of 1 length by Rostropovich; with between them 1/2 length in front of The King was Gieuseppe Garibaldi – all level weights (1m4f)…So on last year’s 1m4f form:
Latrobe is a 1/2 length better racehorse than Rostropovich on 1m4f form.
The King is a 1ength worse than Rostropvich on 1m4f form, which makes Latrobe 1 1/2 lengths better than The King.
Gieuseppe Garibaldi 1/2 length superior to The King on 1m4f form.Flag Of Honour beat Gieuseppe Garibaldi 1 1/2 lengths in the Curragh Cup (1m6f).
Flag Of Honour then beat Gieuseppe Garibaldi 1 3/4 lengths in the Irish St Leger Trial (1m6f).
Flag Of Honour beat Latrobe 2 3/4 lengths at level weights in the Irish St Leger (1m6f).So on last year’s 1m6f form Flag of Honour is (let’s use the second run) a 1¾ lengths better racehorse than Gieuseppe Garibaldi, which therefore makes Flag Of Honour a 2¼ lengths better racehorse than The King (1¾ + the ½ length Gieuseppe beat The King). Flag Of Honour also a 2¾ lengths better horse than Latrobe on 1m6f Irish St Leger form.
Very much flattered by proximity to Stradivarius (just 2 3/4 lengths behind) but better than proximity to Desert Skyline and Gypsy Creek in the Long Distance Cup. Just a neck ahead of Desert Skyline and a further nose to Gypsy Creek in an extremely slowly run race. That race no bearing on horses abilities (1m6f).
Just a week later jinked when only 5th in Royal Oak in another slowly run affair, just over a length behind Holdthasigreen (1m7f).
This year:
Flag Of Honour beat Latrobe 4 1/2 lengths at level weights in the Alleged Stakes (1m2f).
Flag Of Honour beat Latrobe around 1/2 length in the Moorsbridge but was giving the Irish Derby winner 3 lbs that day. Flag of Honour also gave 3 lbs and beat The King a neck (1/4 length) there.So on 2019 1m2f form:
On Latrobe’s first start Flag Of Honour is a 4½ lengths better racehorse than Latrobe; but that was both horses reappearances. Suspect Latrobe was below his best, so I wouldn’t give much notice to the 4 ½ lengths.
On Latrobe’s second start Flag Of Honour is (adding the 3 lbs given to the ½ length) around a 2 to 2¼ lengths better racehorse than Latrobe compared to last year’s 1m6f form 2¾ lengths… And (also adding the 3 lbs FOH gave TK) Flag Of Honour is around a 1¾ to 2 lengths better racehorse than The King compared to 2¼ last year over further.
The King appearing a neck (¼ length) better horse than Latrobe judging by this year’s form, compared to last year Latrobe being 1½ lengths better than The King – a difference of from 2018 to 2019 of 1¾ lengths. Possible The King has improved a little, but even if attributing Latrobe to the full 1¾ lengths below his best this term, it doesn’t make Flag Of Honour running more than around 2½ lengths below his 1m6f form…. And that’s stretching it; imo more likely around a length.So imo Flag Of Honour’s 1m6f form may be a little better, but it is only a little better. That said, stayers races are generally short of 1m2f and 1m4f ability, therefore FOH’s chances of winning good races at 1m6f+ is greater than it is at shorter distances…
Point here though, is beating Flag Of Honour by 7 lengths at 1m2f is a very good performance by Magical. Plenty of room to fit better horses than Flag Of Honour in between the pair.
What form are you looking at FF, that suggests Flag Of Honour is far better at further than 1m2f?
Value Is EverythingI’ve always liked Zabeel Prince, and I’m hopeful of a big run here. He looks too big at 12’s, and though I’ll probably buckle, and go each way, I’ll have an early play at 12’s, and go in again if declared.
Zabeel Prince 12’s
Hope we at least get a run for our money on sea of class
Its pouring down atm and has been for a good while
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