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I have backed VIRAK in addition to my original BISHOPS ROAD selection. Virak has a record of 1-1-2 at Haydock , the second being in this race last year , and at 20/1 represents tremendous value ew .Like everyone on here I am intrigued to see how Alary gets on .
I fail to see where all this enthusiam for Bristol De Mai is coming from?????? Last time out he was beaten 3 lengths by Otago Trail having beaten the same horse no less than 42 lengths last January. He should have been fully fit in his last race having raced a few weeks earlier. To me he is on a downward curve, or am I missing something here?????? When Colin Tizzard makes bullish comments about his horses I will be backing them. According to CT he has improved the fitness of Alary since his arrival, he may well be adopting the training techniques of Michael Dickinson which was interval training and working the horses uphill. Alary looks the value in a race where everything else looks fully exposed.
I’m not sure that you can draw too many conclusions from Bristol De Mai’s race against Otago Trail at
Haydock last January SP, and his recent run in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. It’s absolutely true
that BDM had OT miles back at Haydock, but OT clouted one in that and got detached shortly after, so
I don’t think was his true running. You have to consider that BDM was also getting 7lbs from OT at
Haydock, in the Rehearsal Chase that was reversed with BDM having to give OT 8lbs. That’s a turn
round of 15lbs in OT’s favour. I mentioned in my piece about BDM that he can on occasions get it
wrong at a couple, and it can stop his momentum, he did just that at Newcastle, but nonetheless
kept on well. I don’t think he’s on the down turn, he’s not been out of the first 2 in his last
10 races. I have to admit I’m defending him as I’ve got a bit of a soft spot for him, but I think
he’s competed in top races, and shown a great attitude. I hope he manages to have a good jumping
round today, if he does I’m very keen on his chances. Good luck with Alary, if Tizz has worked his
magic with him, he could be very good.Bristol De Mai won 3 on the bounce last season, he jumped well on all 3 occasions. He has jumped badly in his last 4 races and lost, so why do you think today will be any different?
Lots of interesting posts. Hard to predict a weight adjusted figure for Alary. Not totally convinced by the sudden improvement in France but the horse is young and Tizzard should be able to improve him. Came up with 170 (i.e. non-weight adjusted 166, would have to be 172 to win this) and am somewhat concerned re his jumping based on close up comments. 170.
S. Sunrise 174 but does he retain all ability, current form iffy and not sure has the class so 167.
Virak 173 but seems jaded for the last year so 168.
S. Sky 169 but jumping is a worry.
O Maonlai 175 but only runs well once per season, usually at Newbury, and lacks the class for this so put a big line through.
Vintage Clouds 167 but could 172 if suddenly finds jumping fluency.
Firebird F, Katchenko, Gevrey C, BB all I consider have no chance.
This boils it down to four horses all of which for I predict 174 or 175.
Otago Trail: last time’s flop makes me worry he has gone for the season after 1 good run instead of the usual 3 and stable isn’t really flying at the mo.
Bishops Road: his customary errors are built into the rating but this horse is a big fall risk especially under Jamie Moore who now replaces STD who, bearing in mind what he’s done for Vicente’s jumping could have helped.
Bristol De Mai: the most guaranteed to run his race and may find tiny improvement but has the burden of Jacob and…
Definitly Red: finally jumped fences with fluency last time under Henry Brooke (who is great round the National fences with Highland Lodge, etc) and he retains the ride when bigger name jockeys could have been employed.
Could go pear shaped but it seems all about jumping and jockeys so Definitly Red to win!
How much of Alary is about the word of Colin Tizzard?
It isn’t just the fact he has only won two races, his form doesn’t look close to exceptional. As Steeplechasing has suggested it might be worth keeping an eye on his jumping although Haydock’s fences are obviously a pale shadow of their glory days.
I fail to see where all this enthusiam for Bristol De Mai is coming from?????? Last time out he was beaten 3 lengths by Otago Trail having beaten the same horse no less than 42 lengths last January. He should have been fully fit in his last race having raced a few weeks earlier. To me he is on a downward curve, or am I missing something here?????? When Colin Tizzard makes bullish comments about his horses I will be backing them. According to CT he has improved the fitness of Alary since his arrival, he may well be adopting the training techniques of Michael Dickinson which was interval training and working the horses uphill. Alary looks the value in a race where everything else looks fully exposed.
I’m not sure that you can draw too many conclusions from Bristol De Mai’s race against Otago Trail at
Haydock last January SP, and his recent run in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. It’s absolutely true
that BDM had OT miles back at Haydock, but OT clouted one in that and got detached shortly after, so
I don’t think was his true running. You have to consider that BDM was also getting 7lbs from OT at
Haydock, in the Rehearsal Chase that was reversed with BDM having to give OT 8lbs. That’s a turn
round of 15lbs in OT’s favour. I mentioned in my piece about BDM that he can on occasions get it
wrong at a couple, and it can stop his momentum, he did just that at Newcastle, but nonetheless
kept on well. I don’t think he’s on the down turn, he’s not been out of the first 2 in his last
10 races. I have to admit I’m defending him as I’ve got a bit of a soft spot for him, but I think
he’s competed in top races, and shown a great attitude. I hope he manages to have a good jumping
round today, if he does I’m very keen on his chances. Good luck with Alary, if Tizz has worked his
magic with him, he could be very good.Bristol De Mai won 3 on the bounce last season, he jumped well on all 3 occasions. He has jumped badly in his last 4 races and lost, so why do you think today will be any different?
I didn’t say today will be different, I said in my first post …..
“I think when he’s in a rhythm he’s going to be
hard to peg back, he does occasionally get one or two wrong and loses momentum, but
with a clear jumping round I think this is his for the winning.”and in my reply to your post ……
” I hope he manages to have a good jumping
round today, if he does I’m very keen on his chances.”I’m betting him because I’m chancing he gets his jumping right, and if he does I fancy him to win.
The thing about Bristol De Mai, is that even when he doesn’t get it quite right, he is still
in there at the death. That says a lot for the horse’s battling attitude, and I like brave horses.
If he didn’t have these occasional faux pas, he would probably be a shorter in the betting. I think
he’s the best horse in the race, and I also think that at 6 he still could be open to improvement.
I’m sure NTD will be aware of his shortcomings, and will have been working to iron them out. If he
has, then I would expect a cleaner round of jumping and hopefully a decent result. We’ll find out
in a couple of hours.Occasionally I’ll back 2 in a race, as I have done here with Bristol De Mai and
Sausalito Sunrise, but I can’t resist having a bit of e/w on O Maonlai
at 22/1. He was quite impressive last time at Newbury, and there’s a danger that Newbury
just suits him better than elsewhere, but at his price he’s interesting enough to chance
at that price.Good luck with him Graham, I went for him last time at Newbury, and he spared my blushes in that race after Generous Ransom’s run (we wont mention him lol)
Hoping for a good run from Sausalito, but finally went for Gevrey Chamertin as well, though I’m sure that’ll look a foolish selection afterwards. 66’s 4 places.
Horrible after timing but I too was in the BDM camp, well done all those who put him up beforehand! Absolutely cantered round.
Bristol de Mai is a solid 6’s on the machine ‘Middle of March.Even if this ‘Alary’ is a class horse he still has to give 8lb to what is a proper class horse in our fellow and I doubt he can do it myself.
We knew he’d romp home didn’t we
Just how good was that, jumped well and traveled like a dream. It’s made a good
Saturday for many of us in here….well done all
Just how good was that, jumped well and traveled like a dream. It’s made a good
Saturday for many of us in here….well done allJust about as good as it can get when you’ve backed a horse at a fair price and it comes to the turn on the bridle like an odds on shot.
Cruised round.
Jumped well.
Stayed easily.
Had gears.
Went clear.
Good ride.
Very happy
Wow what a result and so well deserved
Love this horse.
Well done Gord a (spot on) ,Graham and all BDM supporters JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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