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Thought I would start the ball rolling on this one . I m sure VTC will be able to gave a more detailed analysis but for what its worth i feel BISHOPS ROAD has a good chance of following up in this race . The 16/1 ew I feel represents fair value . By the way I have noticed some firms are already offering only 3 places so if you fancy anything e w watch out for that
Trouble with this race is nobody knows the strength of Alary, except maybe Tizzard. The market will tell a big tale with him but I think he could go off a 9/4 chance
Agree with Alary Steeplechasing. Took the 9/2 this morning to win.
The trainer has been very open and confident about this horse the last couple of months and i’m willing to go with what he says also.
Tizzard is running the risk of looking rather foolish if Alary doesn’t go close in this I feel…
lol Orchid, I’ll try to spare you my inane waffle on this one, as it’s a very hard race to take a strong view on, with the inclusion of Alary. Come Saturday afternoon the headlines will either be hailing a new star, or dissecting a less than stellar debut. I’ve no idea what to expect, and Joe’s probably nailed it, in that probably only Tizzard knows just what to expect. It looks a very strong line up at this point, but there’s the potential that Alary could scare the majority away.
I had a great time of it in this last year, with the winner, the trifecta, and despite being someone who lays rarely, I also had my biggest ever lay on the fav, so it was a race to remember for me. I seriously doubt I’ll have as much fun this time, so very definitely a wait and see job, and I won’t be playing till final decs.
Part of that trifecta last year was Virak, and after being handicapped to the hilt for long enough, he’s finally getting some respite from the handicapper. He comes here 7 lbs lower this time around, but efforts this terms have been less than inspiring, and he was particularly lifeless last time in The Rehearsal Chase.
As well as Bishops Road, Virak also had Otago Trail, Bristol De Mai, and Definitly Red in front of him that day. I’m a big fan of Otago Trail, and was chuffed to bits with him that day, but his performance afterwards in The Paddy Power was very disappointing, and I thought he might have been amiss. I’m on him at big odds for Aintree, but my enthusiasm has been tempered by that Leapordstown run, and he also ran a stinker round here at the same meeting last year. I’d be very happy to be wrong, considering that National bet, but I’d fancy Definitly Red & Bristol De Mai to reverse the placings from The Rehearsal. Bristol De Mai has become something of a forgotten horse, but his run here last year in front of Otago Trail was very impressive, and if he takes to the place again, I could make a case for him at the 5’s. Could do with winning more I suppose, but he rarely runs a bad race, and he looks a danger to the fav. Definitly Red looks progressive to me, and though he’s had a great season, I don’t think Brian Hughes had his finest moment on him in The Rehearsal. I’m willing to forgive him that reverse, and I think he has the look of a horse who might still just be a little underrated, and looking at his win in The Rowland Meyrick, then the 8’s is very fair.
I’m equally as interested in Sausalito Sunrise. He took a few quid of mine with him at Cheltenham last time, and to be honest, I’m struggling to come up with a decent excuse for that poor run, but I think he’s decent, and I’m willing to give him another chance. After hitting the heights of 163 last year, he’s down to a more realistic 155 now, and every pound could make a difference come Saturday. I’m very tempted at this stage by the 14’s, and I’ll probably dive in before final decs.
One at a price who catches the eye, is that old rogue, Gevrey Chambertin. You never know what you’re going to get, but he’s well treated, and after winning The Fixed Brush Hurdle round here a few years back, he was very well regarded. He’s actually quite appealing to me at 33’s, and if I have a play before the final decs it will be on him at those big odds.
I think we all agree though that this clearly revolves around Alary, and if the talk is true, then he’ll be a tough nut to crack.
If he makes it on the day, then I’ll definitely side with Sausalito, and may go in beforehand anyway at the 14’s, and I also think the 8’s for Definitly Red is far too big. They’d be my 2 serious fancies, with Gevrey giving some possible each way value.
GL
Will Beg To Differ run ? He’s a late winter, early spring horse going by his form and he ran o.k last time
Trainer form continues to be an issue. Jonjo’s had a poor season but Beg To Differ won in mid January in his debut season, came to hand in February last year and was a tad unfortunate at Cheltenham – that could be the aim again this season but he might need a win soon if there’s a target at Aintree or the old Whitbread at Sandown
I’ve backed Definitely Red and Vintage Clouds both each way 8/1 and 12s
Alary has to be a proper tool making his British debut from 162.
NOt convinced BDM stays three miles on soft ground. Should look at the Ascot Chase for him instead!
I’ve taken that 14’s last night for Sausalito Sunrise, though have left the other 2, and will wait to see if they are declared. Was happy to take that risk on Sausalito though. Gevrey is so risky, and I’d happily take 20’s should he make the line up, rather than have 33’s for a non runner.
I’ve had £50 at 5/1 on Bristol de Mai the class horse in the race,I would normally have a £100 but the vibe for this French chestnut called ‘Alary’ (who I’m told is named that because its Latin for ‘Flying Wings’,well he hasn’t left the ground yet) is big,mines getting weight from this so called wonder horse from France who’s never jumped a fence like those at Haydock in his previous 20 outings…How can a horse who’s achieved virtually nothing be giving weight to a horse like ‘Bristol’ who has achieved plenty??All I know is a class horse doesn’t take 20 runs to show his true colours so I’m not falling for all the hype surrounding Tizzards 4th Gold Cup member.
Like you say Bobby this revolves around Alary but he is a shocking price for this methinks!!
I have backed Sausolito at 11/1 and Virak at 16/1.
I do like Definitely Red and had a good bet on him last time out when he won nicely but he is a little bit too short for me at 9/2.
Vintage Clouds is a shocking price at single figure odds for a horse that has looked paceless over a variety of trips and is only that price cos of the trainer.
Bristol De Mai will not get home IMO and is far to short for a horse that has it all to prove over this trip!!
Bishops Road needs a man to ride it like Dickie last year. I don’t think the jockey will suit.
Otago Trail could be well in taking into account the jockeys claim. It is only two pound higher than when winning at Newcastle and looks a fair price IF you disregard his last run.
O Maonlai wont get this trip in a horse box!! I know Tom George’s horses are running well but I can’t have this getting the trip even though it absolutely hosed up last time!!
Firebird Flyer wants further and probably softer. Katenko has disappointed too many times seventh Sky doesn’t convince at the trip and Gevrey well who knows!!
Berea Boru might run well at a price and was thought good enough to run in the Scottish National as a novice which might point to the trainers opinion of the horse.But as I have said I am Sausolito and Virak because Virak has disappointed more than once since this race last year but I can’t imagine Nicholls is sending him here just to fill the horsebox and Sausolito because he struggled on quicker ground last time and these conditions will suit him better.
Good Luck Everyone
I’ve had £50 at 5/1 on Bristol de Mai the class horse in the race,I would normally have a £100 but the vibe for this French chestnut called ‘Alary’ (who I’m told is named that because its Latin for ‘Flying Wings’,well he hasn’t left the ground yet) is big,mines getting weight from this so called wonder horse from France who’s never jumped a fence like those at Haydock in his previous 20 outings…How can a horse who’s achieved virtually nothing be giving weight to a horse like ‘Bristol’ who has achieved plenty??All I know is a class horse doesn’t take 20 runs to show his true colours so I’m not falling for all the hype surrounding Tizzards 4th Gold Cup member.
Agreed.
2 wins in 20 in France doesn’t have me thinking this is a superstar.
I won’t play until the day but I have always been a fan of BDM
I’m with Sausalito Sunrise & Vintage Clouds. Hobbs’s 9 year old won’t have to lug 11st12lb around like he has his past 3 runs due to the inclusion of Alary and is now 4 pounds lower than when 3rd in last season’s Whitbread. Vintage Clouds at the other end of the weights is well thought off, has plenty of course experience and will relish conditions. Odds of 10 & 9/1 seem fair.
I’ve had £50 at 5/1 on Bristol de Mai the class horse in the race,I would normally have a £100 but the vibe for this French chestnut called ‘Alary’ (who I’m told is named that because its Latin for ‘Flying Wings’,well he hasn’t left the ground yet) is big,mines getting weight from this so called wonder horse from France who’s never jumped a fence like those at Haydock in his previous 20 outings…How can a horse who’s achieved virtually nothing be giving weight to a horse like ‘Bristol’ who has achieved plenty??All I know is a class horse doesn’t take 20 runs to show his true colours so I’m not falling for all the hype surrounding Tizzards 4th Gold Cup member.
Agreed.
2 wins in 20 in France doesn’t have me thinking this is a superstar.
I won’t play until the day but I have always been a fan of BDM
Think I’ll play BDM at the 5s
If the hype is true, 4/1 on Alary is a fair price for those in the know
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