- This topic has 71 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 8 months ago by
.
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I never back favourites.
Ginger will never understand my viewpoint. I have not gone back on anything I said in my original post and your customary statistician’s lecture about longshots will cut no ice against it. You appear to dislike abstract thinking, so a discussion such as this will not end well.
So in other words Prof, it does not suit your opinions to base them on facts.
Value Is EverythingI never back favourites.
Ginger will never understand my viewpoint. I have not gone back on anything I said in my original post and your customary statistician’s lecture about longshots will cut no ice against it. You appear to dislike abstract thinking, so a discussion such as this will not end well.
So in other words Prof, it does not suit your opinions to base them on facts.
Had I been moaning about longshots winning then a repetition of your statistical lecture may have been appropriate. However, I wasn’t. I was talking a realm where facts are subordinate to feelings.
In your first post you asked
"What if I packed it in for good"?
With everything you said in that post and in other threads Prof, I answered your question by saying…
I believe you would be a lot happier away from Racing. For your own good. If I had those emotions, hope I’d have the sense to give up Racing.
Sorry if it isn’t the answer you are looking for Prof.
Value Is EverythingI never back favourites.
Ginger will never understand my viewpoint. I have not gone back on anything I said in my original post and your customary statistician’s lecture about longshots will cut no ice against it. You appear to dislike abstract thinking, so a discussion such as this will not end well.
So in other words Prof, it does not suit your opinions to base them on facts.
Had I been moaning about longshots winning then a repetition of your statistical lecture may have been appropriate. However, I wasn’t. I was talking a realm where facts are subordinate to feelings.
If you look back Prof, you’ll see my "statistician’s lecture" was not aimed at you. It was a response to a comment by Woolf. Not everything is about you.
Value Is EverythingI can fully appreciate the frustrations of betting. It is an integral part of game and those who don’t bet presumably wouldn’t make a profit anyway.
We now have access to more information than ever before but it is clearly becoming increasingly difficult for the average gambler to make a regular profit. It often seems like a game of snakes of ladders with too many snakes on the board.
Personally, I achieve my best results on bumpers, Irish racing and condition races at the major Jump Festivals. Despite the obstacles I think the average person has a far better chance betting on NH rather than the Flat.
Most punters who are still fortunate enough to be working have little alternative but to concentrate on the weekends and here lies the major problem. What do we get? Handicap after handicap with a million runners, 2yo/3yo maidens where you are guessing (unless you are ‘in the know’) and a few condition races. And all of that before you factor in ground, draw etc. And yes you then find the best horse in the race and the jock messes up. I think we have the worst bunch of jocks I can remember which makes policing the sport next to impossible.
It isn’t going to get any better and it is just a case of being more and more selective. Even if you can achieve that the next step is probably finding your account closed even if you bet relatively small amounts.
Having said all that if you still think you can make a profit no reason to give up.
Maybe you should think about watching races without punting. I bet you’d enjoy the big meetings without laying down a penny.
My thoughts exactly. I have been having the odd bet for a few decades now, but I know that there is equal, and sometimes greater, joy and excitement in watching good racing without having a bet. Horseracing is not synonymous with gambling.
Excellent post, sadly a concept many seem unable to grasp.
Whilst I still have the odd bet, I would class myself as the sort of person who can enjoy racing without gambling – I suspect having been taken to the races by my dad as a boy helped developed the love of racing as opposed to a love of gambling.
However I must say it is wholly understandable that "many" people are unable to grasp the notion of loving racing without the betting. The two racing channels are increasingly becoming little more than an advertising medium for bookmakers to entice the viewer to bet. The proliferation of intensely irritating bookmakers reps are getting ever more airtime on both channels, cleverly offering prices for outcomes that are going to benefit them not the punter.
Whilst it is not the intention of any bookmaker to bankrupt punters (they need gamblers who will lose over the long term but still have money to keep the income stream flowing)they are ensuring that the ability to disassociate the sport from the gambling is more difficult than ever before. With the BBC no longer covering the sport one assumes the bookmaker influence over the presentation of the sport via television is likely to increase.
How’s a bumper much different to a maiden?
A bumper is a car you can drive around the fairground whereas a maiden is an over bowled in cricket where no runs are scored.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
It is pointless blaming bookmakers for tough handicaps. Fact is it is punters who like open, competitive handicaps. If bookmakers got as much money through their shops from small field Conditions races, then they’d want
more
small field Conditions races. Blame
Joe Pu
nter.
Non-handicaps are not neccessarily better for the punter than handicaps…
With the one exception of number of runners in non-handicaps being smaller than handicaps (so the former usually take less time to study)… It is just as difficult to make a profit from non-handicaps as it is Handicaps. Nons being easier to "find the winner", but that only means the prices are shorter. Therefore a punter needs far more winners in non-handicap races to show a profit – than he does in handicaps. With the difference between being "easier to win" and "needing more winners" directly cancelling each other out.
However, some punters will be more adept at finding value in handicaps and others will be better equipped for non-handicaps.
Value Is EverythingHow’s a bumper much different to a maiden?
A bumper is a car you can drive around the fairground whereas a maiden is an over bowled in cricket where no runs are scored.
How’s a bumper much different to a maiden?
Leaving aside the shorter bumpers if you have a little knowledge of breeding and the trainers with a decent record it is usually much easier to rule horses out of a bumper than maidens on the Flat. Obviously, both types of races involve horses who may be immature but in a bumper you at least have two miles or more to offset that disadvantage whereas a horse could easily be slow out of the stalls and it is then effectively game over.
It is pointless blaming bookmakers for tough handicaps. Fact is it is punters who like open, competitive handicaps. If bookmakers got as much money through their shops from small field Conditions races, then they’d want more small field Conditions races. Blame
Joe Pu
nter.
Are you sure about that? Both groups you describe want to make money. I may be wrong but I would have thought bookmakers’ margins are more favourable in big runner handicaps than non-handicaps, and they are certainly achieve a more balanced book. It is therefore in their interest to promote those races. Given their greater access to the mainstream tv media they are able to promote the races they want punters to bet on far more successfully.
Of course bookies would want more conditions races if they made more money out of them. Thats stating fact. Its a bit like saying bookies want FOBTs that earn them more money than ones that dont. The bookie doesn’t give a monkey’s what the medium is as long as they maximise profits – SIS’s very own bookie funded VBC service the latest proof of that.
If the argument is that bookies are influencing a reduction in the overall quality of our racing then perhaps that is explained by the dependency by bookies on racing eroding with the greater choice of gambling media available to punters. For racing to address this one imagines the only way forward would have been a Tote monopoly, which would have also addressed the issue of poor prize money in this country.
It is pointless blaming bookmakers for tough handicaps. Fact is it is punters who like open, competitive handicaps. If bookmakers got as much money through their shops from small field Conditions races, then they’d want more small field Conditions races. Blame
Joe Pu
nter.
Are you sure about that? Both groups you describe want to make money. I may be wrong but I would have thought bookmakers’
margins
are more favourable in big runner handicaps than non-handicaps, and they are certainly achieve a more balanced book. It is therefore in their interest to promote those races. Given their greater access to the mainstream tv media they are able to promote the races they want punters to bet on far more successfully.
Ivanjica,
Bookmakers "margins" (over-rounds) are larger (per horse) in the average non-handicap than they are in handicaps. Handicappersusually
have at least a few runs and are more mostly exposed types. Especially the older ones who may only get a minimal mark up. Maidens don’t have much form (if any) to go on. Therefore, mark ups needs to be greater because it’s more difficult to know just how much chance the horse has, needing a greater margin for error… So it could be argued that (per horse) bookmakers
should
make more money on non-handicaps. However, because
handicaps
are what punters prefer to bet in, in practice it is handicaps that bring more money in.
If I were a bookmaker pricing up an
unexposed
2
year old that I might think had a fair
10% chance (fair 9/1)
in a maiden… I’d want to add
at least 3%
to offer around
13/2
. Where as with an
exposed 8
year old that I also consider to be a
fair 10% 9/1 chance
… I’d be quite content to add
just 1%
and offer
8/1
.
Value Is EverythingHowever, some punters will be more adept at finding value in handicaps and others will be better equipped for non-handicaps.
Exactly. Horses for courses.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
It’s natural for forum regulars to defend their sport but given the level of disillusionment among remaining race fans it’s right that discussion takes place. I am certain that there is a great deal amiss with racing and I have long ago abandoned conventional selection methods but have not yet reached for a pin.
i’m reasonably happy with decent handicaps.
My ‘pocket’ talk is sparked by thinking out loud about the product. I only have serious bets on NH because I think my estimations of weights and stamina are far more accurate than the nip and tuck, the sheer titting about, that goes on with the flat.
My point is simply: how can a sport whose followers make a virtue of its fiendish complexity and difficulty expect to survive long term in a world increasingly attuned to instant gratification and the dumb-down?
The sane man looks at more than half the rubbish offered and thinks: is this what the leaders, financiers and participants of this game think of us all? ‘Just turn up and lose would you please?’
Certain people who carve a steady profit are drugged by their success into adopting a rose coloured spectacle approach, but trouble is coming, make no mistake.My point is simply: how can a sport whose followers make a virtue of its fiendish complexity and difficulty expect to survive long term in a world increasingly attuned to instant gratification and the dumb-down?
Prof,
You moan about how difficult the game is Prof, yet also say "I never back favourites
". Punters don’t back favourites for one reason and one reason alone, because they don’t like backing short prices. So you are NOT interested in the horses with a good chance of winning. You might find it less "difficult" if you were interested in favourites.
If the game was made less "complex" / less "difficult" to pick winners, then prices would need to be reduced (for bookmakers to make a profit). Therefore, many more horses will be reduced to prices you’re NOT interested in.
You moan the game is too difficult Prof… Yet Racing needs to be made difficult because there are many punters like you, who don’t/won’t bet on short priced horses.
Value Is Everything
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