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Great news FF..I’ll stay faithful to Running Lion to win The Oaks.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I think it’s a particularly ground-dependant Oaks this year.
If Cooper puts a lot of water down and then it rains, IMO the two Gosden fillies struggle to get the trip and the relentless, remorseless, Cheshire Oaks winner follows up.
If it’s miraculously Good or quicker, I personally think the Musidora winner might be the one.
I still think Roaring Lion is likely to prove best at 1m2f.
That said, my track record when disagreeing with Jac is abysmal!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The idea that the fav won’t win on decent ground may well turn out to be a myth. ;o)
Who said the fav won’t win on decent ground?
Not me, that’s for sure.
What I did say is she’s proven in testing conditions, others aren’t, so testing conditions would favour her.
Conversely, she’s not proven on quicker ground, others are, so obviously quicker ground enhances her rivals’ chances as it’s a double whammy either way.
None of this is rocket science.
Fascinating Oaks this year.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“The idea that the fav won’t win on decent ground may well turn out to be a myth. ;o)”
It may
But at 11/8 it’s a question more than worth asking is it not?
No chance I’d be taking a short price on a horse that wasn’t proven on the going in a competitive race
Better 11/8 shots run every day of the week
Well put, FF.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Soul sister covered the final 3f of the musidora faster than azure blue did in the duke of York
She must be very fast, if she gets the trip she will take a lot of beating
It’s precisely because she’s so fast that I worry she won’t stay if Cooper pours the water on then it goes and rains.
I can’t forget Snowfall’s year.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I did mention on another thread that the favourite is unproven on anything faster than soft (she has even won on heavy) and as a result she was far too short at the price considering if the race is run on quicker ground than soft it doesn’t inconvenience her rivals as much as Chester like conditions clearly would.
The trip for Soul Sister, I really don’t think will be an issue as she won over a mile on soft ground on her soul start as a two year old and her full brother won his two races over 1m 6F.
Have to say I was amore than a bit surprised that they started her off over 7F as a three year old and whilst that Newbury meeting was officially also run on soft ground there were some right odd results and wide margin winners at the two day meeting to make me think her abysmal run couldn’t simply be blamed on the ground, especially when you consider her Doncaster win on soft ground was 8.26s slower than standard whereas the Newbury race was 8.23s slower.
That being said quicker condition will certainly suit her seeing that she clocked back to back sub 11 second furlongs (10.82s and 10.74s from 3F out to 1F out) in the Musidora.
“Soul sister covered the final 3f of the musidora faster than azure blue did in the duke of York
She must be very fast, if she gets the trip she will take a lot of beating”The overall time was nothing to write home about. The ratings gurus have been raving about what the fav did in her trial however. The Oaks is unlikely to be run like the York race was. I think the market has it about right.
Being by a Scat Daddy mare, ground condition worry for me personally about the fav is nil. Her runs on soft so far were just the way the ground happened to be on them days.“… if Cooper pours the water on”
It’s shocking that clerks of the course have such a major say in how Classics (and other prestigious races) are decided.
The weather is looking bone dry so the watering won’t make much difference this time.
“The overall time was nothing to write home about.”
Aye they went very slow in front which is likely why she was able to clock those two very very fast furlongs and leads to a slow overall time
But it does also mean she overcame a positional bias to win like she did
Only one other horse (Midnight Mile) was able to clock a sub 11s furlong and Soul Sister after being baulked at the top of the straight was last but one of the 8 runners when she started her challenge.
The sectionals showed that from 3F out to 2F out every horse clocked their fastest 1F sectional time (so she was actually quickening past quickening horses) but she was the only horse to then run the next 1F (2f out to 1F out) in a faster time.
She was also putting more daylight into the rest of the field through the last furlong so the further she went the better she looked which all goes well for a step up to 12F.
All over runnning lion here. Think she was very very classsy at Newmarket in the pretty polly and the other two at the top of the market may want extreme ground either way which looks unlikely. Just a case of hoping she sees out the trip which I personally think she will.
I don’t think Running Lion will stay 12f myself and they’ll probably go French Oaks after.
Soul Sister has won on officially good and soft ground so I don’t think she is overly ground dependant – the favourite has yet to prove herself on quicker ground than soft, she may very well be absolutely fine on it but what we do know is that quicker conditions will not inconvenience her rivals anywhere near the extent that much softer ground would have.
Running Lion you could argue both ways on the stamina issue – her sire patently didn’t get the trip and one half sibling was a 7F G3 winner at 2 but never went further than a mile afterwards, whilst another sibling actually won over 10F and 2m. I wouldn’t put it past Gosden to follow what he did with Nashwa last year who was 3rd at Epsom (considered a non stayer) and then went on to win the French Oaks 16 days later – once again this year both races are 16 days apart.
Jac
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