- This topic has 290 replies, 45 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
Roger that, Big G. I had a small e/w bet on Augusta Kate when the prices came out at 8/1. I assume the swap in the market between Augusta Kate and Turcagua is down to Ruby choosing Augusta Kate? I have €10e/w on Augusta Kate for the Albert Bartlett at 14s; surely she’ll be fav for that if she can beat Death Duty? As you said it will be interesting to see if Turcagua can show any sign of improvement.
Bad luck there Vautour with Kate, it’s difficult to say what the outcome would have been, but
she was making up ground when she came down. They were up quick enough so hopefully they are
still on track for Cheltenham.I backed Finian’s Oscar at 25/1 for the Neptune after Hereford. I have absolutely no intention of backing him in any other races. He has a decent chance in a Neptune, no chance in a Supreme. It is all very well looking around to see what the best odds are now but if he isn’t going to go there it is just a complete waste of money.
The Tolworth is essentially a stamina test and yesterday it was even more of a stamina test given the underfoot conditions. Finian’s Oscar wasn’t foot perfect by any means and if he made those mistakes in a Supreme on likely much quicker ground in a Supreme he could be finished after a couple of hurdles. They would be bonkers to even contemplate the idea.
Anyone who doesn’t think Death Duty is not heading for the Albert Bartlett has either not watched his races, backed him for the Neptune or backed something else for the Albert Bartlett. Take your pick.
Stilvi, he’s a fine jumper. He had 2 errors, both disagreements with his jockey. Inexperience, nothing more. If anything, he’ll jump even better at speed.
He was slowing after the last as they all were and off not an impressive time. I strongly suspect he’ll go shorter with the horse. Wouldn’t you be tempted to have a saver? Tizz has said the Supreme is far from ruled out.
Stilvi, he’s a fine jumper. He had 2 errors, both disagreements with his jockey. Inexperience, nothing more. If anything, he’ll jump even better at speed.
He was slowing after the last as they all were and off not an impressive time. I strongly suspect he’ll go shorter with the horse. Wouldn’t you be tempted to have a saver? Tizz has said the Supreme is far from ruled out.
Whatever the reason for the mistakes they were made at a sedate pace on soft ground. A totally different test to a Supreme.
I only back horses in races that should be their target. If the trainer is daft enough to go elsewhere then so be it. This horse will not go Supreme.
I am actually surprised you are suggesting anything for the Supreme given that you put up Moon Racer for the Champion Hurdle? We know he isn’t going to go Champion Hurdle so you must think he is a certainty for the Supreme?
As for Tizzard I think there is a little danger of him getting carried away with himself. Everything is going very well at the moment but how long will it last? Sensible is often a good deal better than leftfield. The idea that he doesn’t which way to go with this horse is just rubbish. He will know that the Neptune is the obvious target but is probably enjoying playing the press in a similar way to Mullins. It is unfortunate that he doesn’t seem to realise the impact his fun and games has on punters.
Stilvi is spot on.
The Sandown hurdle track is the most misunderstood in the country. Ignore the race distance for Novice Hurdles at Esher it is always a stamina test. Despite the introduction of more drains in the late back straight and near the pond this season, the mixture of frost and rain last week made the 2 miles a huge stamina test again.
Finian’s Oscar will run in the Neptune…very good chance too.As for the Albert Bartlett, I wouldn’t run anything in that race in preference to the Neptune even if the novice was better suited to 3 miles. Arguably the AB is on the very limit of what a novice should be asked to undertake over that course at Championship pace.
As for the Albert Bartlett, I wouldn’t run anything in that race in preference to the Neptune even if the novice was better suited to 3 miles. Arguably the AB is on the very limit of what a novice should be asked to undertake over that course at Championship pace.
I know that it’s only one example, but a gruelling victory in the Albert Bartlett didn’t do Bobs Worth any harm…
Stilvi, the fact I put up Moon Racer for the Champion Hurdle and FO for The Supreme makes a lot of sense. To me, at least – I think MR will run in the Champion.
As to Tizzard’s ‘good run’, been going on for a hell of a long time to be just a good run don’t you think? There’s plenty evidence now that the man is doing things differently and that whatever it is he’s doing, it’s giving him an advantage over some top trainers.
Very interesting nugget in what he said about Alary recently:
“He is just getting used to working on our hill and he will be out in January,” said Tizzard of the Alan and Ann Potts purchase, who was twice Grade One-placed at Auteuil.
“He works beautifully and is a proper horse, but he could not get up our hill to start with. He worked yesterday with Thistlecrack and there was not much in it at all.
“He will either go to the Cotswold Chase or the Denman, that is the type of horse he is.
“He has been bought for the Gold Cup. He was third in their (French) Gold Cup and second in their King George equivalent.”
“He could not get up our hill to start with” Maybe that’s where any ‘secret’ lies.
I think he does enjoy winding the press boys up, but not in a mean way. He’s a shade eccentric, but I much prefer him to the professional, media-trained “star” trainers.
I only watched the Luck/Tizzard post-race interview last night. I got the distinct impression Luck was trying to steer him towards the Supreme. Tizzard did not commit himself but almost straight away referred to the Neptune as the ‘easiest’ option. For ‘easiest’ I read ‘obvious’. Having said that why would you then pick the hardest option?
I don’t have RUK, so it’s interesting to hear that. Someday we will work out Tizzard’s comments. After the KG when asked about the pre-race speculation he said, perhaps jokingly but I doubt it, ‘Of course he was always going to run. Why would I have entered him otherwise?’
I suspect the horse will get another run (did they talk about that?) and that will help him make his mind up. Neptune might look easiest, but I get the impression he too thinks the horse has his fair share of speed and that’ll niggle away at him.
Tizzard said that FO will have another run.
5-1 clear fav for the Neptune proves what a strange market it is this season.
I was impressed with Finian’s oscar. Well done with 25-1 Stilvi although you seem to back everything that goes short at huge prices, without mentioning it beforehand. Aftertiming?
Think Augusta Kate also an interesting contender. For my money she was coming to give Death Duty a huge race and don’t buy the comments of Gordon Eliot in saying he wasn’t worried. To me the build and scope of the mare suggests to me she’ll be very well suited by the cheltenham festival.
Actually amazing the amount of aftertiming on this forum, it seems everyone is on the now clear favourite for the race at big prices, without anyone actually bothering to mention backing it for the Neptune before it ran at Sandown.
Funny that!
I can vouch for Stilvi’s bet Judge.
Rocky, totally agree about that Maiden Hurdle. Monalee going to be a good one, but in behind, The Storyteller, and Glenloe. Two horses who look like just the types I like to follow. Maybe not for this, but in time, Coral Cup or Pertemps horses.
Took 16’s before the race on Finians Oscar – into 5’s now. Pretty happy with that
shameless
Took 16’s before the race on Finians Oscar – into 5’s now. Pretty happy with that
Done the same myself, took the 16s for the Neptune and the 20s for the supreme before the race. Wasn’t 100% what his target will be – Tizzard said as much after the race also (but i’d imagine the Neptune).
horrible
Took 16’s before the race on Finians Oscar – into 5’s now. Pretty happy with that
Done the same myself, took the 16s for the Neptune and the 20s for the supreme before the race. Wasn’t 100% what his target will be – Tizzard said as much after the race also (but i’d imagine the Neptune).
I done similar but took the 20s neptune yesterday and took 16s supreme in running.
I would say it would be unlikely but interested if anyone though albert bartlett was still a possibility?shocking
I can vouch for Stilvi’s bet Judge
Rocky, totally agree about that Maiden Hurdle. Monalee going to be a good one, but in behind, The Storyteller, and Glenloe. Two horses who look like just the types I like to follow. Maybe not for this, but in time, Coral Cup or Pertemps horses.
ok but can we stop with the shameless aftertiming please? I see this all the time on this forum, where people boast about the huge prices they’ve taken.
funny how quiet all these people were BEFORE sandown.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.