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The only Grade 1 Novice Hurdle in Ireland before the Festival takes place in Naas this Saturday. Whoever Ruby Walsh is on for that should be worth a small bet for The Neptune although saying that Bellshill won it last year and ended up in The Supreme but I think that’s because he was considered weaker than Yorkhill and Min by the second week in March
Mullins has 5 entries but you can be sure only 1 will turn up (maybe 2 max)
Turcagua, Lets Dance and Riven Light are the Ricci horses..
Invitation Only and Crack Mome are entered for WileyDoubt Lets Dance and Riven Light will run as they only ran last week; will be interesting to see who turns up..
i got a feeling it be riven light. as he jumped so badly that hr never had a race. and mullins might run him to get experience as well. as he is a quality horse with a lot to come
Mullins has actually has 11 entries. Augusta Kate, kemboy, asthuria, Aussie reigns, penhill, saturnas, crack mome, turcagua, riven light, invitation only, let’s dance.
Still no sign of Melon..
Saturnas looks like he will be geared towards the Neptune
http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Deloitte-likely-for-Saturnas&prid=180161
Mullins has actually has 11 entries. Augusta Kate, kemboy, asthuria, Aussie reigns, penhill, saturnas, crack mome, turcagua, riven light, invitation only, let’s dance.
3 Mullins horses left in; Augusta Kate, Asthenia and Turcagua. Death Duty is in along with two other unbeaten Gigginstown horses; Bel Ami de Sivola and Blood Crazed Tiger. The SP’s should be interesting. Can’t see Turcagua getting past Death Duty, unless he has improved a lot over the last few weeks. Will be interesting to see where Willies Mares stand in this field. Death Duty will surely be favourite?
Death Duty 4/9; Turcagua 2nd favourite on 3/1 and the Augusta Kate and Asthuria are 8s and 12s respectively. We know Turcagua wont beat Death Duty because he couldn’t beat Monalee, who has also lost to Death Duty. For some reason I was hoping that the 4 Novice Mares (Asthuria, Airlie Beach, Augusta Kate and Lets Dance) would be good enough to mix it with the boys in the other Novice Hurdles. We already know that Airlie Beach is good enough to beat Saturnas and Penhill.
I’ll be disappointed if Turcagua is really better than Asthuria and Augusta Kate after they get their allowance. Ruby could choose one of the Mares and that could change the market. If they’re not good enough to take on Death Duty then you’d have to think they will all be going to Mares Novice Hurdle and that makes that harder to call… Have a good few 10 cent accas with Asthuria and Airlie Beach in them so I really hope that Lets Dance is good enough for The Neptune and Augusta Kate the Albert Bartlett but I guess we’ll know on Sunday..
It’s an interesting race Vautour (Lawlers Hotel Novice Hurdle) and you’re absolutely right
in your assessment in that Turcagua, through a line with Monalee, shouldn’t beat Death Duty.
I put Turcagua up last year, and included him in my Ten To Follow competition. That didn’t
go too well, he didn’t appear until the Festival and wasn’t tuned up. I waited for him coming
back out this year and watched the race at Punchestown, where he was favourite but was well
beaten by Monalee. He travelled well, but had little at the finish. I don’t know if he needed that,
some of Mullins appear to have, but he was a different horse at Punchestown last month where he was
really impressive. I’ve not given up hope that he’s as good as I thought he could be, if he does well
and wins here his price at the Festival will fall. I’ve chanced a few quid at 25/1 with Paddy Power in
the Neptune and 20/1 in the Albert Bartlett, he looks like he would get 3m. Augusta Kate looks like
one to follow too.Can Augusta Kate compete with the boys, Big G? That’s the question. I think I’m getting too excited about Willie’s Mares. Apart from Airlie Beach they have only really beaten other Mares.
If Tarcagua can beat Death Duty then that run against Monalee can be struck off as a warm up and then I will think about opening my wallet. Will probably be too late by then.
What do you make of Saturnas, Big G?
I think she (Augusta Kate) looks a decent prospect Vautour, although I’m not sure Willie
will run her in this on Sunday, she might be kept to her own kind. She disappointed a little in
the Champion Bumper at the festival, but I thought she looked promising at Aintree in April
behind Kayf Grace (who won with any amount in hand next time out at Bangor). She won well
later that month at Punchestown, but the acid test was how she would go over hurdles when
she appeared at Thurles in November. She couldn’t have done it more easily, but it was a
terribly uncompetitive event, beating a 50/1 shot with only 2 other horses of the 16 under
10/1, although she was giving everything 8lbs. She’s a Yeats mare, and comes into the
“could be anything” category. She’s most popular in the Mares Novice Hurdle, best priced 7/1,
but you never know where Willie will send them, and Airlie Beach might have that as her target.Saturnas, like a lot of Mullin’s horses, has done very little wrong. He ran a good race behind
Airlie Beach at Fairyhouse in December giving her 7lbs, and she looks a bit special unbeaten in
7. He won well last time out in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over 2m. I think
the way he won, suggests he would be even better over further. He’s quoted as low as 12s for the
Supreme although I think he would be better suited to the Neptune, and it was suggested that he
was bound for Leopardstown on 12 February and tried at 2 1/4m and possibly upped in distance at
the Festival.Good luck if you’re having a go at either of these
Cheers, Big G. I asked Paddy Power to price Saturnas for the Neptune and its up there now at 20/1. Have thrown him into a few small accas.
I was at Newbury and really impressed by Messire des Obeaux. Real game little battler, and will make a nice chaser.
We’re bottom price (8/1) but think the 14s about is very fair, Kingy’s only runner and no qualms about other engagements.
Looked bonny hoss too; https://twitter.com/BetVictorRacing/status/815197613574225920
Can Augusta Kate compete with the boys, Big G? That’s the question. I think I’m getting too excited about Willie’s Mares. Apart from Airlie Beach they have only really beaten other Mares.
If Tarcagua can beat Death Duty then that run against Monalee can be struck off as a warm up and then I will think about opening my wallet. Will probably be too late by then.
What do you make of Saturnas, Big G?
I see that Augusta Kate does take her chance in the Lawlors Hotel Novice hurdle at Naas on Sunday
Vautour. They must think a lot of her to throw her in against Death Duty, and Ruby is down to take
the ride. The bookies clearly think this means Turcagua is very much the second string, and perhaps
he is, but I can’t let the 12/1 with Bet365 go without having a few quid. There might only be 6
runners, but this is turning into a really interesting race with Death Duty, Augusta Kate and Turcagua.
Elliot says Death Duty is his best novice hurdler, and he’s at the head of the market in both the
Neptune (8/1) and the albert Bartlett (11/4).I’ll be happy if Turcagua puts in a good showing as I’ve got him in both the Neptune and Albert
Bartlett.’Roger that, Big G. I had a small e/w bet on Augusta Kate when the prices came out at 8/1. I assume the swap in the market between Augusta Kate and Turcagua is down to Ruby choosing Augusta Kate? I have €10e/w on Augusta Kate for the Albert Bartlett at 14s; surely she’ll be fav for that if she can beat Death Duty? As you said it will be interesting to see if Turcagua can show any sign of improvement.
Well done Vautour taking the 8s, she seems about 100/30 at the moment. Ruby on her
will make a difference, but it’s one helluva turn around in prices. Turcagua out from 100/30
to 12s!! and Augusta Kate in from 8s to 100/30. I think there must have been a bit of money on
her, and I suppose there was some doubt about her getting thrown in with the big boys which
might account for her being 8/1 in the first place. Good luck with her on Sunday, and if also
if she heads to the Albert Bartlett
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