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Our Oz friends would know better, but at 43 on SC’s elimination list, I’d say he needs to incur a pretty hefty penalty to guarantee a run.
Simon Crisford’s remarks made to the Aussie press reported today are a little puzzling. The gist is that he says All The Good has always been best fresh and that they are worried about him backing up after 17 days. Yet his lifetime record fresh (off 6 weeks or more) prior to the Caulfield Cup was 0/6, whereas he was 6/15 returned to the races within 6 weeks.His time since last run for all his wins reads 36,26,22,15,18 and 13 days (Newburgh)
I can see his point that recovery from what was a hard race off the plane is a concern, but his point is hardly bourne out by the horse’s form which suggests he should improve for the run!They need to make a bit of money back so its a godolphin plot…. cunning.
The Geelong Cup is tomorrow – a Group 3 race in Victoria’s second largest city.
Automatic entry to the Melbourne Cup for the winner – and Bauer is an acceptor.
Meanwhile, I know about All The Good’s poor fresh form but improved form when "second-up" and I’ll be spouting it somehow to the locals …
I can tell you that since All The Good’s win the local media are close enough to waving the white flag. It’s my intentions to settle the dust!
The Geelong Cup is tomorrow – a Group 3 race in Victoria’s second largest city.
Automatic entry to the Melbourne Cup for the winner – and Bauer is an acceptor.
Meanwhile, I know about All The Good’s poor fresh form but improved form when "second-up" and I’ll be spouting it somehow to the locals …
I can tell you that since All The Good’s win the local media are close enough to waving the white flag. It’s my intentions to settle the dust!
Bauer will need to win well enough to get a penalty. The Geelong Cup winner usually gets a penalty but this race is not an automatic qualifying race.
Open cox Plate this year without a genuine big name performer. The market three weeks ago was vastly different but injury and form lapse has seen the favorites fall away.
Samantha Miss has won five races on the trot in 3yo company but the Sydney filly has to run anti-clockwise for the first time on the tight Mooney Valley circuit.
Her practice gallops at the track have been impressive and with the pull in the weights she is the horse to beat.Raheeb is the forgotten horse in this field and can land a knockout win.
Three starts ago he brained them at Newcastle and then started favorite in the Epsom Handicap. A bog track put an end to his chances in the Epsom but his last start in the Toorak was full of merit. After missing the start he worked home smartly from 12th, 2f out to finish 5th.Princess Coup comes into this race a last start winner of the Kelt Capital stakes in New Zealand where she finished full of running. Her form has been franked by Nom Du Jeu who finished second to All The Good in the Caulfield Cup. Princess Coup has beaten Nom Du Jeu at her past two starts.
Theseo, Alamosa and Master O’reilly appear best of the other runners.
1 sirmione(8) damien oliver 59 30-4-2-4 James Bart Cummings -72183-686 rating 119 [/color:14n1l7ez]
2 maldivian(6) michael rodd 59 25-7-5-5 Mark Kavanagh 206-324469 118[/color:14n1l7ez]
3 zipping(5) danny nikolic 59 31-11-1-6 John Sadler 58341-9-73 116[/color:14n1l7ez]
4 theseo(12) nash rawiller 59 22-5-1-5 Gai Waterhouse -5130-5621 115[/color:14n1l7ez]
5 master o’reilly(11) vlad duric 59 24-8-3-4 Danny O’Brien 3118-8-627 114[/color:14n1l7ez]
6 raheeb(10) 59 13-3-4-2 Anthony Cummings 43225-2105 107[/color:14n1l7ez]
7 alamosa(7) craig newitt 57.5 21-10-4-1 Mick Price 15111-4461 115[/color:14n1l7ez]
8 c’est la guerre(3) steven arnold 57.5 12-5-2-0 John Sadler 711212-794 115 [/color:14n1l7ez]
9 princess coup(9) opie bosson 57 31-12-7-3 Mark Walker -41222-911 113[/color:14n1l7ez]
10 gallant tess(4) corey brown 57 22-5-3-5 David Payne -1740-2133 110[/color:14n1l7ez]
11 zarita(1) dwayne dunn 55.5 16-7-2-1 Pat Hyland 11118-8250 112 [/color:14n1l7ez]
12 samantha miss(2) glen boss 47.5 9-6-1-1 Kris Lees 13421-1111 112[/color:14n1l7ez]I personally feel the only horse that can beat Bauer today is Smerdon’s Light Vision.
Will be interesting to wake up and find out the result, thats for sure
I have to stick with Samantha Miss In The Cox Plate. This is too Zarkava-esque to ignore in all honesty.
Mediocre field, top class 3yo filly and in all honesty she is an absolute freak.
The way she came from the back in the Tea Rose and the Furious Stakes was very impressive and she beat a horse who I rate in one of those two (Portillo).
I think the 7/2 on offer for her is a pretty good price. I think she can do this
Three-wide and pulling away to win by 1 1/2-2 lengths eased up.
White flag waving to the temporary residents is irrational, but you can’t help but think the international trainers have finally got it right.
Europeans easily the best stayers by 4-6 lengths and more, but it was a matter of finding the horse with the right profile for the Australian conditions.
I’m hesitant that Coolmore haven’t done so.
Some well respected judges have already conceded the Cup to be sailing abroad. Well, if you include the New Zealanders then fair enough.
The Melbourne Cup might be run for Coolmore like the Coronation Cup.
Maybe the last Australian hope, Efficient, was withdrawn today.
Serves Mr. Williams right for wrapping his horse in cotton wool.
Littorio will need to regain his form back at Flemington, of which his trainer suggests will be a procession.
Williams will have a duo to compete – the chronic running-on-but-never-winning Zipping, and C’est La Guerre, whose odds may drift into the twenties as his form has been fine but nowhere near good. That seems only because he is after a serious stamina stretch.
Colleagues tell me they are jaw-dropping at the sight of Profound Beauty, All The Good looks to have left his effort at Caulfield, and Yellowstone is "f***ed".
Yes, it’s a shame about All the Good. Without him and Efficient, two of the leading fancies are gone.
I’d like to see Septimus win because I think he’s the best horse, but at the odds I think Nom de Jeu is the best bet.
am I right in thinking that it tends to be won by a reasonably well fancied horse..not a race for outsiders?
Maybe the last Australian hope, Efficient, was withdrawn today.
Serves Mr. Williams right for wrapping his horse in cotton wool.
Littorio will need to regain his form back at Flemington, of which his trainer suggests will be a procession.
Williams will have a duo to compete – the chronic running-on-but-never-winning Zipping, and C’est La Guerre, whose odds may drift into the twenties as his form has been fine but nowhere near good. That seems only because he is after a serious stamina stretch.
Colleagues tell me they are jaw-dropping at the sight of Profound Beauty, All The Good looks to have left his effort at Caulfield, and Yellowstone is "f***ed".
Littorio runs today at Flemington aswell as the Melbourne Cup doesnt he? I’d expect him to win today despite coming up against Princess Coup but I’d agree with the general consensus that he doesnt have much of a chance on Tuesday (if he turns up!).
Dermot’s horse is in with a chance.
I’m tempted to back Profound Beauty purely on the back of what MDeering is saying about the gallops in all honesty
Already on Septimus at 14s a while back (as I showed on here a month or so back) but the form of the AOB big players added on to the slightly negative vibes coming out about Septimus and the ground makes me want to play a saver here.
Dermot’s been very quiet over this one and I think this could upset the AOB applecart if there is a chink in Septimus’ armour.
The only thing stopping me backing Mad Rush as the saver is the fact that if Mad Rush came up against Septimus in a normal race over here I’d still prefer Septimus. Septimus would be a lot shorter pricewise too.
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