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As far as I am aware:
Septimus
Alessandro Volta
HonoluluProfound Beauty
Yellowstone
Mad Rush
BauerAll The Good
Are being primed for the Spring.
The only horse I see to be an ideal Melbourne Cup contender is the horse from the bloke who has won two of them! The rest appear to be one-paced stayers.
But, I’m not sure.
The rest appear to be one-paced stayers
You should watch ALL THE GOOD win at his last start. It was a most impressive turn of foot. It appears to be a stark jump in his ability based on his previous runs. He has hit peak form but the question is can he hold that form until the first tuesday in November?
I’m with you mate- though our antipodean friend is a trifle dismissive. He has a similar profile to Purple Moon last year, in that he won the "Ebor" off a similar mark. My only worry is how easy he’s been to back on Betfair- I keep nibbling and am averaging 33/1 so far. Godolphin’s website says that he arrived in Melbourne safely this morning (Sept 27th).
He may need to win a lead up race to qualify as he is currently 35th in order of entry.
I have him in to 29th with the removal of others above him but with 24 to start he needs more out and others can recieve exemption from the ballot in some lead up races.
He has 53 kgs or 5.5kg pull in the weights from Septimus.
Profound Beauty is one place behind him at 36th so they will both be looking to perform in a lead up race to cement their place. 0.5kg or more penalty should get them in.
The 33/1 proverbly reflects his position as he is as much as 40/1 here in Australia.I’d be amazed if 5 horses don’t come out in a race that’s still 5 weeks away- he’ll get a run all right.
He is in to 26th after second dec’s, so some extra’s have come out and he should make the M.Cup field.
He will run in the Caulfield Cup on the 18/10/08 with Kerrin McEvoy aboard.
This should top him off nicely for the M.Cup and the Double is at 900/1 on the TAB which I have delighted in taking.
Godolphin have been missing from the carnival the last couple of years, so this horse must have ticked the boxes as the right type for Oz.Samantha Miss has made a clean sweep of the filly’s classics in Sydney and her last win was awesome. The 47.5 kgs she will carry is a 9.5 kg advantage from the 4yo colts and 11kgs from the older horses in the Cox Plate. SM is bred in the purple she can win, but like Zarkava it has been since 1976 that the last 3yo filly, Surround won the Cox Plate. The last 3yo was Savabeel in 2004 and his sire Zabeel is the dam sire of Samantha miss. SM is by Redoute’s Choice, a son of Danehill and is currently the leading Sire in Australia.
Samantha miss is from Milliyet a full sister to the Stakes winners Cronus 963K and Pravda 557K who both were at their best around 2000m. So the distance should not be a problem.
900/1! Have a tenner on for me!
Alas his price has firmed but still 50/1 for the Caulfield Cup.
Hopefully you have been soaking up the generous odds on betfair for the CC as well as the Melbourne cup.
Mad Rush is also in the CC, how does he compare to All The Good carvillshill?They come out very nearly the same horse on our ratings- Mad Rush has arguably the better form, having been second in a French Group 2 last time. Cumani’s got previous too, which helps.The only difference is price, All the Good is 33/1+, Mad Rush 16s.
Snooper,
Regarding Samantha Miss – Whats the general feeling over your way about her in the 1000 Guineas this week? She’s had a brilliant run up to this IMO and I’ve taken 4-1 due to her form.
Is she expected to win?
Snooper,
Regarding Samantha Miss – Whats the general feeling over your way about her in the 1000 Guineas this week? She’s had a brilliant run up to this IMO and I’ve taken 4-1 due to her form.
Is she expected to win?
Bit late but as MD stated she was not intended to run. Her mission is the Cox Plate and maybe the Crown Oaks.
Stick with her as she is all class.
A copy of comments at racenet.com.au
Star Sydney filly Samantha Miss had her first look at the tricky Moonee Valley circuit in a track gallop that pleased trainer Kris Lees on Tuesday morning.
With Cox Plate rider Glen Boss aboard, the Princess Series winner looked in terrific order as she cruised over 1000 metres at a speed just quicker than even time before striding over the last 400 metres in 26.85 seconds.
Trainer Kris Lees was very pleased with the way that Samantha Miss took in the Valley particularly as the track was especially tight as the markers were out nearly twenty metres.
“She went terrific, she wasn’t out to run any sort of time, she was only here for a look around the track and she had that this morning,” he said.
“She got on her right leg to get around the track without a worry and she’s done everything I wanted her to do this morning”.
Glen Boss made the short trip from Flemington to Moonee Valley to ride Samantha Miss and was also pleased with her work.
“She felt great and even though she wasn’t out to break records this morning, she got around the track without a worry,” he said.
More News – If the Sydney fillies do well in the 1000 Guineas this will be a guide to SM chances in the Plate.
Samantha Miss not in Guineas but in everyone’s mind
Brad Waters
Tuesday, 14 October 2008Boom filly Samantha Miss is not a runner in Wednesday’s GI Thousand Guineas at Caulfield but leading trainer David Hayes and Freedman stable jockey Dwayne Dunn agree that she holds the key to finding the winner of the event.
“The Samantha Miss formline might be the dominant formline in the event,” Hayes said.
“She might be a freak but then again the others might just be ordinary, I’m hoping they’re ordinary”.
Hayes has Taameer, Oval Affair and Arms Wide Open in the event while Dwayne Dunn will ride the Lee Freedman-trained Darley entrant Romneya.
“Kerrin (McEvoy) had the choice of which one he wanted to ride and jumped on to Portillo straight away, probably based on the perception that the Sydney form is better,” Dunn said.
“I also think that we have to bank on the Sydney form not being good enough in this race”.
Portillo only got within two lengths of Samantha Miss once in the recently run Princess Series, yet is rated the best of the Sydney fillies in betting at around the $6 mark.
Following the Caulfield Cup they make Mad Rush favourite with All the Good 10/1 generally. This makes no sense to me as the two horses were together turning in and All the Good was on top at the line. Mad Rush took a small bump but not enought to make much difference. OK ATG gets a penalty but will have no problem with the extra distance and for me has the perfect blend of a good cruising speed and turn of foot to be seriously involved 2 weeks on Tuesday at Flemington- I think he’s still value at the 10/1.
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