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I don’t think you need a break David, what you need is a rethink.
Trying to find winners consistantly in the type races you mention is near impossible,
I would try and be much morse selective and up your stakes but bet less.
EG Today I will have a single win bet on New Approach 6/4 after reading Bolger said the horse has been settling well at home. I have also doubled him with Kalahari King at 4/5.
Should the luck be in and New Approach wins it gives me a huge price advantage. To my way of t
hinking if Kalahari King then wins I have secured 7/2 about him doing so.
To me there is more value doing that, than trying to beat the booie in these crazy everyday handicaps.
Good luck hope your luck changes
Well done Fist. I fancied Kalahari King today – but his price was much shorter than I envisaged.
Zip
Cheers mate!!! I took 6/4 about NA but 4/5 and 6/4 the double so 6 and half a dozen. I really thought he would be 4/7 in that race but who knows what the course vibes were before the race?
What’s impportant is my next 3-4 weekends with 3.5 pts clear profit are for free win lose or draw. Both a bit obvious but winners none the less.
there are other things in life to enjoy. Have you tried Babestation on Sky channel 906?
Zip
LOL – I have – several times, maybe it’s affecting my eyesight?
Thank God I’m not the only one David!
It always amuses me when blokes send in their "pictures" to the babes….
"Oh look, Becky, Dave from Bermondsey has sent us another lovely photo…" (ie: his willy – for the 32nd time that week!)
I do think those girls earn their money – looks like hard work
You can see them yawning sometimes and looking very bored…but then you can’t chat filth with them until after 9pm, so must be tough for em’ to keep interested. 
BTW, if you don’t wanna pay the £1.50 per min try the mega slapper chat channels further on down the channels…Sportxxxbabes is cheap!
Zip
Sometimes it’s better to become removed and emotionally uninvolved from the event. Bets become expressions of maths, you don’t take them personally.The difference between making winning and losing plays isn’t always that great. When you are winning you have to understand why you have won no less than why you lost when you are making losing plays.
I’m having a shocking time too David at the moment – Can’t buy a winner on the racing but also my second sport football I’ve had 5 consecutive accumulator bets where 1 team out of the 5 or 6 results has let me down.
Maybe I should just bet singles on football and I’d be in profit? Its all if’s and buts. Sometimes the more you analyse the bets you have, the more you lose your confidence to keep betting through the bad times.
As I think Himself said – its all about betting within your means and not chasing the losses.
What i would do David is to look back at all your winners and see if any particular type of race stands out for example 2yo maidens,novice hurdles or chases etc and consider backing on those races,
Also make notes if you go racing to the track of horses which catch your eye and you think will improve later on.
Trusting your own judgment is another and it is something which if i had done over the years then i would have backed even more winners but i ended up doubting myself as i belived that i could not really be that good at picking them out.
For example Saturday just gone i totally ignored Newmarket and looked at Kelso and in the 2m6f novice hurdle i knew Merrydown from when i saw him at Musselburgh back in Feb and i noted him as a horse who would suit 2m4f over hurdles, I also caught the eye of the Howard Johnson horse mainly as the yard is flying and you have to follow him in these sort of events.
As i could not split the two i decided to have a reverse forecast on them and hey ho they came 1st and 2nd.I used to have some data on predicting the %potential for losing runs of varying lengths based on %strike rate. If anyone has this or similar please pm me.
Two minutes research has revealed this neat little web-based application which calculates probability of losing runs of varying sizes based on strike rate.
I’ve been thinking about this since you started this thread David and have a few observations. I’m in a bit of a rut myself since the end of July, making a small loss overall since then. Some years ago this would worry me a lot more than it does now- that’s the benefit of experience. The more you can grind out winning years the less short-term fluctuations bother you. It’s important not to be bothered, as if you are your normal good behaviour patterns will change and you’ll start doing silly things like chasing. I’d say the single biggest factor in why I’m a better punter than I was 5 or 10 years ago is that losing runs don’t bother me as much as they did and my days "on tilt" are almost a thing of the past. Some years ago my bad days were very bad- I now seem to have improved at limiting losses and going a bit quiet at bad times.
Now, after a month of poor results as long as I can see the rationale for the bets that I had (and I try to write a few words to that effect on each) and that the selections outperformed their market position, I take it on the chin.
Warning signs that you are on the wrong track are if selctions on the average run worse than their price suggests they should and that they drift on the average after you back them.
Losing runs underline the importance of good record keeping and even temperament-as long as you can maintain both you’ll come out the other side.
Personally I am inclined to reduce my standard stake by about 25% during a time like this unless I feel something is blinding value until a winner or 2 starts to come again. 6 seconds at the Breeder’s Cup tell me I’m not doing a lot wrong and that this is a temporary blip.
I don’t really subscibe to the theory that certain times of year are better than others- analysis of my records shows that profitable periods are completely unpredictable- if they weren’t I’d stop betting at the bad times!
I’d love to hear AP’s musings on this subject!I have been going through a bad patch since about July, where very little has went to plan. But this has led me to review my betting style massively (having a lays and plays thread has given me a good point from which to review). I am agreement with Niel on areas where you make money, and areas where you dont.
The points I have noted about how I personally bet are:
That I generally make more on 2yos races on the flat than probably any other area as I find it easier to find value in them, I always have been able to.
I generally find 2 mile Novice Hurdles easier to pick than any other area also.I have always made a profit at chester’s may meeting, but almost always make a loss at the preceeding Guineas meeting, next year I will strive to avoid betting in the guineas meeting and increase my bank for chester.
I find it easier to make profit when there is a change in the going.
I need to generally stay clear of Handicaps big-my findings with the handicaps are that it is possible to get big priced winners in them but generally I will lose more than I make on them. The only real time I tend to do well on them is when there is a going change.
I also need to stop playing the big prices as much, I have realised that there are times to play them and times not to.
I also need to stop playing on big days racing as much, it is probably because I havent got to see as much racing this season that I always find myself having most of my bets on saturdays, when this isnt necessarily where I should be betting.
I need to stay clear of anteposting on the flat, and keep it to fun only. I made a good amount on Authorized when he won the derby, and done well at cheltenham from anteposters and as a result have done more anteposts this term on the flat than I normally would, and it has cost me a lot.
Last season on the jumps I built my season around anteposters for cheltenham, and done well on it, but this was the first time trying this method and may have been purely coincidence, as I had previously always found jumps racing to be a money pit, and generally stayed clear of it.
This season is the first on the flat that I have found myself losing interest, this may be because I have not had an internet connection, and it may be because I have not been able to get back to the winning ways of chester in may, but a culmination of the two points has led to me to not watching what is going on as much as usual and I will have to remedy this in future.
Everyone picks horses in different ways so I think you have to look at the areas where you generally do best and focus on those areas, it may only be a patch of bad luck.
The key points I think are discipline and value. My main problem is that I have npo discipline.
CH,
Happy to oblige, but I’ve little to add to what I wrote years ago.
I’d agree about cutting back, but I’d reduce the number of bets rather than the stake. If, for example, you’ve lost a grand during a losing run using £100 stakes, having £50 on a 10/1 winner is going to feel like backing another loser. If you’ve got a sensible staking plan based on your available capital, stick to it.
The last resort is to take a break from betting and spend the time reviewing strategy and reminding yourself of past profitable bets. I have my betting books back to the mid 80’s and hours of video tape showing winner after winner. It’s amazing how good you feel after watching fifty or sixty races and you had the winner of every one of them!
I should add that I’ve also had practical experience this year – the first eight months produced a net loss on BF and as a result I had a rethink during September. I concluded that I no longer had the powers of concentration I had when younger and I’ve decided to completely give up betting on flat racing. I resumed this month as an NH only punter and have managed to get back to level on the year in just four weeks. I’m looking forward to a lengthy break next summer ……..
I bet 2 or 3 horses every race, every day and even though my strike rate is only 17% the losing streaks never last too long due to the sheer volume of bets. 7 days is the longest losing run I’ve had this year and psychologically that helps enormously. Their IS safety in numbers when it comes to betting on the horses imo.
Whether you bet often or selectively record keeping, disciplined staking and an adequate bank are key. Also as carvills mentions if your early bets are beating SP then a losing streak, even a long losing streak is only a stat blip and it will come good over the long term, which is all that really matters anyway.
Stick with it!
What works for one doesn’t work for another. I would suggest a shut down for a while. Everybody has losing runs whatever they say, when you know you can’t buy a winner you do tend to start doing things you wouldn’t normally do, you over analyse and start becoming desperate and heaping pressure on yourself.
Go on holiday or simply just take time out for two or three weeks, switch off completely from horse racing then start up again. Your mind has had time to settle itself then and you will probably find you start winning again.
I had a right spell during end of last jumps season / start of the flat if I backed two in a three horse race the other would win. It lasted a while so I decided to shut down. When I started back up again I had a decent time of it and a cracking end to the flat and I’ve started the jumps nicely by and large.
Losing spells are innevitable unless you have a large number of bets (though even then you have loss spells) you just need to
a) minimise your losses
b) protect your confidence
c) Keep a clear headNone of the above is easy when you are desperate for a winner.
Interesting what you have to say about the flat AP. I have been struggling on the level for last couple of years and my gut feel is that there has been a shift of some kind. I don’t know if it’s the all weather effect or whether ground conditions have been unusually variable. Perhaps trainers modus operandi has changed. I don’t know but I do feel the flat is getting harder to read.
Interesting stuff from AP and Cormack
"powers of concentration"
"a shift of some kind"Deep down don’t you think the real reason you’re losing interest/struggling is that the sheer volume of Flat racing nowadays lessens your appetite for betting on it?
It becomes too much of a daily grind and ultimately just plain boring
It did me hence I gave up over two years ago to concentrate solely on Steeplechases; a decision I’ve not regretted one jot
you must stick to your own judgement .in bad times have a brake.but it all depends how you select your horses. if you read the form and feel in your view it looks a good bet .dont be put off by the price or what the racing tipsters say.stick with it david
Drone,
No argument with your view of the flat – so much of it these days is a dull monotone of maidens and handicaps.
I’ve tried various approaches in recent seasons, but could find no way to continue to handle the workload, which as you suggest comes back to the sheer volume of racing.
Call it boredom, call it overload, call it a decline in my capacity – one way or another the BHA has lost a customer.
I know I’m at an advantage in that I don’t need to win for my living, but I have always found it easier to win on racing that interests me intrinsically. This is the better quality Flat racing nowadays and the top jumps action culminating in Cheltenham. For me trawling through tapes of maidens or low quality handicaps from the likes of Kempton would be like working for a living and probably wouldn’t be profitable, but it’s no hardship to ensure I don’t miss a significant jumps contest between now and March.
You can see them yawning sometimes and looking very bored…but then you can’t chat filth with them until after 9pm, so must be tough for em’ to keep interested. 
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