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4121-21 Barbers Shop 50 7 11-10 N J Henderson 159
353-231 Exotic Dancer (FR) 27 9 11-10 Jonjo O’Neill 174
16UP-10 Knowhere (IRE) 56 11 11-10 N A Twiston-Davies 156
440-255 Ollie Magern 29 11 11-10 N A Twiston-Davies 157
331320 Snoopy Loopy (IRE) 29 11 11-10 P Bowen 168
13/P611- An Accordion (IRE) 319 8 11-6 D Pipe 152
3/114-16 Imperial Commander (IRE) 29 8 11-6 N A Twiston-Davies 156
642-316 Joe Lively (IRE) 28 10 11-6 C L Tizzard J Tizzard 153
12P-0UU Miko de Beauchene (FR) 7 9 11-6 R H & Mrs S Alner
3P1-502 Monkerhostin (FR) 35 12 11-6 P J Hobbs 156
2112/U1 Nozic (FR) 29 8 11-6 P F Nicholls 161
211-122 Tidal Bay (IRE) 29 8 11-6 J Howard Johnson Denis O’regan 166
113-4P2 Albertas Run (IRE) 29 8 11-5 Jonjo O’Neill 165
1225-13 Roll Along (IRE) 50 9 11-4 C Llewellyn 157
3242-23 Halcon Genelardais (FR) 28 9 11-0 A King 164
111/3-02 Star De Mohaison (FR) 43 8 11-0 P F Nicholls 163Anyone else really fancy Halcon for this? Going off a decent weight for the first time this season. 12lbs lower than his two previous runs.
We know he goes well at Cheltenham and I have a feeling he could very well get the win. Star De Mohaison is the alternative for me, he is coming back to his best at an alarming rate and shouldve won last time out when getting caught by Mon Mome late on.
I cant have Roll Along here as I feel Barbers Shop has the beating of him, even with 6lbs in hand on him. I’ve got a small wager on Barbers Shop (well before Pricewise plumped for him) but I think SDM and Halcon may be too good for him here considering the 10lbs difference. Regarding Albertas Run, we know he wants much better ground than the expected going.
Exotic Dancer is now a non runner and will go for the Irish Hennesy instead.
How about you chaps?
As connections want decent ground for Star De Mohaison and the forecast is for a deluge, why on earth have they declared Exotic Dancer (won this on heavy in 07) as a NR?
Its important for my Cheltenham portfolio that Barber Shop runs well and probably that Imperial Commander doesn’t run at all.
- Total Posts 17716
hth
Imo Halcon Genelardais is favourite for this purely on his OR and the weight he receives.
His form at this level shows he needs a deal further than 3m, and as he gets older he looks like he needs even further. In his 2 races this season, over 24 and 30f respectively, neither looked a sufficient test, and unless it comes up an absolute bog – unlikely at this course – I wouldn’t even bet him to place.- Total Posts 17716
I haven’t seen the prices for this race yet, but Nozic would be of particular interest following his defeat of Tidal Bay (surely unlikely to re-oppose given the conditions) last time out.
If this turns into a competetive paced race as it did last year then Knowhere at 33s is a very good price IMO.
What’s going to run is what I would like to know.
Exotic Dancer and Barber’s Shop who was an intended runner look like they could be heading for the AON (drfiting with everyone)……..Running in a very competitive race round Cheltenhan this close to the Festival on soft ground isn’t the ideal prep plus no doubt HRH would like to know what chance B. Shop has against Denman before deciding where to run so it will be no surprise if he gets withdrawn.
You can definitaly rule out Alberta’s Run who won’t go near the place on soft ground.
There must be serious doubts about Imperial Commander taking part. I know they want to see if he will get the trip but this is hardly the easiest way to find out, again being a very tough race.
Can’t believe they are running Tidal Bay..worse bit of training decisions I have seen in years. They are shooting way too high with him IMO and he should be running over shorter distances with the Ryanair in mind.
Everything consider Paul Nichols looks tohave a very strong hand (again)
with Norzic and Star de Mohaison………While he may not be the bettter of the two on very testing ground I would strongly fancy Norzic to win this.The forecast is for a bit more rain so I’m having a bit of the 7/1 which hopefully will loook good by Saturday.- Total Posts 17716
Far from "shooting way too high", I think this race represents Tidal Bay’s best chance so far this season.
On proper soft or heavy ground at 3m (It wasn’t at Wetherby, and imo, hasn’t been since the course was rebuilt) he will have the time he needs at his fences, loves the stiff track, and should stay every inch of the 3m trip.
Despite giving ground away at many of his fences in the Rowland Meryrick, he kept coming back for more, right up to the end, and, even disregarding the 15lb turnaround in his favour, would expect him to reverse the form with Nozic in Saturday’s probable circumstances.
‘Outclassed’ he certainly won’t be.reet,
I’m with you in the sense that I can’t see either stamina or class being much of an issue with regards Tidal Bay’s chances on Saturday. However, I can’t buy into the "needs time at his fences" argument. Doesn’t the fact that his best round of jumping to date came in the Arkle- a briskly-run race over 2 miles- seem to contradict that notion?
This looks like a no-bet race to me (admittedly I backed Tidal Bay when I saw he was both a likely runner and 7/1 with a view to trading). I’d have been interested in An Accordion for a place, though I’d be wary of any Pipe runner making their debut so late this season.
- Total Posts 17716
reet,
I’m with you in the sense that I can’t see either stamina or class being much of an issue with regards Tidal Bay’s chances on Saturday. However, I can’t buy into the "needs time at his fences" argument. Doesn’t the fact that his best round of jumping to date came in the Arkle- a briskly-run race over 2 miles- seem to contradict that notion?
Friggo
Not imo.
The 2 miles wouldn’t have been in his favour, but the soft ground, searing pace, and the stiff uphill finish into a strong headwind all were. Also, bear in mind that these were novices and Noland apart (Who has also proven that he needs further than that day) wouldn’t be within 20lbs of the form Tidal Bay has shown subsequently.Damned if I can see the point in running Tidal Bay in this.
Granted he ran a good race when beaten by the ultra consistant Norzic giving him weight.
However that was virtually Norzic first run of the season and went off unfancied. If he has improved that I would think Tidal Bay will have his work out to beat him.
Tidal Bay looked one paced at Wetherby and there is no hard proof he will actually get this trip at Cheltenham.
The only conclusion I can come to is that this is some king of trial to see if he is good enough to run in the Gold Cup.
To compete with Denman and Kauto Star he would need to winthis by 10 to 15 lengths on the bridle because either fo them would at levels.
He’s unlikely to do that and all they will achieve is to give the horse another very hard race before the Festival. Granted he is a tough horse bu tI would be looking for an easier 2m 4f furlong race and then run him at the Festival in a race he has a chance of winning.the Ryanair.
I’m not saying he cant win thisbut if they are thinking Gold Cup instead of the Ryanair then they are nuts IMO
reet,
I think you may have the wrong end of the stick here. My point was that I can’t see why Tidal Bay needs time at his fences when his best display of jumping came in a quickly-run 2 mile contest. The Arkle probably isn’t his best performance anymore, as finishing clear second in a Rowland Meyrick off 166 is definitely no mean feat.
The only conclusion I can come to is that this is some king of trial to see if he is good enough to run in the Gold Cup.
Fists,
I’d say that’s definitely what they were doing (although I’d suggest it’s a test of his stamina more than his ability). Johnson & Wylie probably know this is the classiest individual that Wylie’s millions have bought, and I’d imagine they’ll be wanting to give him every chance to prove himself worthy of tackling one of the two more prestigious champiosnhip chases at the Festival. The CC hopes obviously went west in the Tingle Creek, so it’s on to the Gold Cup.
I’d say that’s why he was tried in the Rowland Meyrick instead of the King George- we all know staying the KG is no guarantee of getting home at Cheltenham.there’s no value in this race now; I was going to have an ew on Roll Along..was finishing really well the in Sun Alliance and likes good to soft ground but missed my chance yesterday; may have an ante post on Nozic for the Gold Cup just in case he wins amazingly well on Saturday and his price comes in dramatically [don’t look for logic in this; I don’t do logic…]
The more I look at it, the more I think Tidal Bay is stuck-on.
The run behind Nozic (who received 18lbs and was far from unfancied) was a high-class weight-carrying performance imo, and I expect him to go very close under Saturday’s conditions. Hills 7/1 is a great price.
I personally think, from just having a quick look at the race, that it is between 3 of them and those that will be fighting out the finish will be –
Halcon Genelardais
Tidal Bay
Albertas Run.Halcon ran a great race again at Chepstow at the back end of December in the Welsh National, is carrying 10lbs less than he did when he came 4th behind Denman in last years’ Gold Cup, and i think could run a big race.
Tidal Bay, looks well in too. A very good performance in the Rowland Meyrick, when carrying top weight. The only concern here is the distance, it will test his Gold Cup credentials that is for sure, 3 miles round Wetherby isnt like 3 miles round Cheltenham. However, with 6lbs less weight to carry, it could even itself out. Again, the only doubt with him is the trip.
Albertas Run, goes well at Cheltenham, was impressive when seemingly getting back to form at Kempton in the King George VI. Wont mind the trip, ground should be ok. It will be interesting to see which one McCoy goes for, i think he will stay loyal to Exotic Dancer, so i will see who is the jockey on Albertas Run before thinking more about him.
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