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reet,
I think you may have the wrong end of the stick here. My point was that I can’t see why Tidal Bay needs time at his fences when his best display of jumping came in a quickly-run 2 mile contest. The Arkle probably isn’t his best performance anymore, as finishing clear second in a Rowland Meyrick off 166 is definitely no mean feat.
The only conclusion I can come to is that this is some king of trial to see if he is good enough to run in the Gold Cup.
Fists,
I’d say that’s definitely what they were doing (although I’d suggest it’s a test of his stamina more than his ability). Johnson & Wylie probably know this is the classiest individual that Wylie’s millions have bought, and I’d imagine they’ll be wanting to give him every chance to prove himself worthy of tackling one of the two more prestigious champiosnhip chases at the Festival. The CC hopes obviously went west in the Tingle Creek, so it’s on to the Gold Cup.
I’d say that’s why he was tried in the Rowland Meyrick instead of the King George- we all know staying the KG is no guarantee of getting home at Cheltenham.I’d say you worked their thoughts out pretty well and it does make sense or at least it would if Denmanand Kauto Star weren’t around.
I suppose strange things have happened and if he gets he trip well who knows. You would think I wasn’t a fan of the horse but I am. What worries me was he was beaten 7 lengths at Wetherby giving away 15lbs but Norzic looks to be improving and the turnaround in weights may not be enough. Over and above that, if it turned out to be close between them and Star De Mohaison is, as the betting indicates, the better of the 2 PN horses both will be hard pushed to beat him…….but then I guess that’s why he’s the price he is.
Tidal Bay has run two solid races this term, but he still remains something of an enigma. It will be interesting to see him back at Cheltenham (5 runs, 3 wins).
Despite such contrasting conditions, he ran two almost identical races at Sandown and Wetherby. On both occasions his jumping let him down. He lost his position twice at Sandown before staying on and the same thing occured at Wetherby over the extra mile. Bustled along quite early on in that race (something you wouldn’t expect from an Arkle winner with his engine), he got back into contention and looked the likely winner before finding little at the business end.
It’s naive to say for certain he didn’t stay, but after getting into such a promising position you’d expect him to have too much pace for Nozic. Perhaps the effort he made getting back into the race took a lot out of him. Perhaps it was the concession of weight. It’s hard to say.I think he stays three miles fine and connections have always said this will be a season for experimenting. No harm in finding out a little bit more about him.
To beat a Peter Marsh winner and a Charlie Hall winner 3 3/4L and 7 1/2L, giving away 10lbs and 14lbs, respectively, is very solid.
Twist Magic is top class around Sandown and Tidal Bay would not have been far away had that horse stayed on his feet.
Not too many horses can display that level of form over both two and three miles. His saving grace this season has been his engine and he makes up so much ground between his obstacles.
His jumping has been poor this term and I think Denis needs to be more aggressive with him. It worked in the Arkle and he jumped beautifully at Aintree. His mistakes at Doncaster behind Leslingtaylor told us that he has the athleticism to find a leg and recover from a mistake.
I know both John Francombe and Mick Fitz think something is amiss for him to jump the way he has – JF believes it could be something hurting him.
I’d like to see Denis settle him early, be more aggressive at his fences and attack turning in. If this horse is in front coming into the straight, nothing will pass him. He’s a very proud, competitive horse and will fight anything that throws down a challenge.
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The point with Tidal Bay is that he has met better horses this season, not just a few pounds better but at least a cuople of classes higher, and his jumping has been found wanting.
In both of his last 2 races he has given ground away at around half of the fences simply becaiuse higher class horses tend to jump better, and quicker, than the novices he was racing against last season.
This tardy technique cost him far more ground than he was beaten by at Wetherby, but proper soft ground around Cheltenham should be a totally different kettle of fish in that it will slow others down at the fences, rather than speed him up, thus alllowing him to conserve much of the energy he has used the last twice, getting back into the race between fences.
Personally, I don’t think Nozic will see the way he went, and I agree with Grassy that 7/1 TB doesn’t nearly do him justice.On heavy ground and with the weights as they are, I’d make Halcon Genelardais a worthy favorite, would also consider Roll Along if he were a better price, may have another look tomorrow.
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Can’t have that, Bulwark.
In this race 2 years ago, on the same heavy ground, he could never muster enough pace to even get in contention. He’s older now, and probably slower with it.Roll Along for me conditions should be absolutely perfect. Can’t see Tidal Bay getting home at the trip on the ground.
I have Star De Mohaison as the best value bet here at 3.7/1 on betfair. Not surprised Walsh is on Nozic as SDM has been Barry’s ride since the SA Chase. Stays, jumps, acts on soft, acts at Cheltenham.
Halcon is one of my favourite racehorses, class act but I agree with Reet. May want further unless it is a bog.
Tidal Bay stays 3m1f around Wetherby on soft so unless it is a bog should do so here. I an more worried about his temperament. Seems to be getting worse. I know he’s gone well at Cheltenham in the past, but if he does hit a flat spot may give the rest a start. Never surprise me if one day refuses to start. Having said that might be worth a saver at the prices.
Nozic looks the improver in the field but needs to. Can hit one and has not got as good Cheltenham form as some. Looks short enough now considering the weight turn around with TB. FOF’s 7/1 looks value though.
I have the others at 25/1 or more.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI would give "Roll Along" an outside chance in the Gold Cup if it came up very soft, so i think he is a cracking bet at 10/1, i might even have a double
on "Battlecry" in the 2m5f race earlier on the card, i think the trip should be perfect for him! Both winning would give the "Albertas run" form a nice
boost for the Gold Cup.If "Tidal bay" wins this he defineately will go for the Gold Cup and add further spice to a red hot race!Can’t have that, Bulwark.
In this race 2 years ago, on the same heavy ground, he could never muster enough pace to even get in contention. He’s older now, and probably slower with it.Depends on the pace Reet, this looks a competetive race in its own right, 3m2f on heavy ground round cheltenham in a competetive paced race, getting weight from most of the opposition would look to be bang up his street IMO.
I wouldnt be ruling tidal bay out of it though, as the race may not pan out that way.
With Roll Along I get the impression and I could be wrong some of the connections would like to think they have a Gold Cup horse.
I think his trainer is being a bit more realistic when he says he would have to improve an awful lot.
Many owners get carried away and if Nicky Henderson has severe doubts about RA’s Sandown conquerer, Barber’s Shop, being a gold Cup Horse, then it’s safe to say Roll Along definitaly isn’t.
He seems to have gone nowhere while Jonjo’s has improved and he doesn’t need Roll Along to give him a boost..He did that himself at Kempton
He may well run into a place here but win a Gold Cup? I think not.
why has Roll Alongs price drifted out so much? apoplogies..still 15/2 with my bookies….will have a tentative ew on the Gold Cup at 66/1 also.
12.5 on BF now for Roll Along. Thats a massive drift considering he was a big market mover in the week.
I cant have Nozic here. He gave too much weight to Tidal Bay last time out at Wetherby. Tidal Bay put in an appalling round of jumping and still got within 7 lengths. Can’t have Joe Lively either due to the weight Halcon should have in hand over him from last time out.
Letting my heart rule my head I’ve gone for a small EW on Snoopy Loopy. 3 places being paid and Snoopy has only finished outside of the frame once in 12 months.
My main bet for this is Star De Mohaison. I’ve turned my back on Halcon and might regret it but Star looks the bet for me
Must admit though…..I am tempted by Tidal Bay…
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But Tidal Bay was at least race fit, halfwaytoheaven, and Nicholls has uttered the words ‘Gold Cup’ in the same sentence as ‘Nozic’ already this season.
He’s still the one for me, despite his trainer favouring Star De Mohaison.
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