- This topic has 98 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’ve had another look at this tonight and first time since Topofthegame was ruled out.
Slate House catches the eye on last season’s form. He’d had a lot of racing by the time he went off the boil. I think he has a nice weight as a result of his form tapering off. His sketchy jumping would be the main worry. Also think jockey bookings will give clues as to who the stable think will do better between him and Copperhead.
The other i’m interested in is Sam Brown. Very lightly raced for his age. He ran poorly at Ascot in February but his comeback run on ground which would’ve been quick enough for him was encouraging. He’d be my pick right now but i’m happy to sit and wait rather than play antepost.
He’s not jocked up yet according to RP so i assumed that meant he was more likely for the Ladbrokes. If he’s going Paddy Power then my mind is made up; Sam Brown for this.
Sam Brown’s a cracking horse TYT, take out that Ascot run, and he’s got a great chance here if it rains.
No reason for Slate House not to run in both. Been a while since we’ve seen a horse attempt the double. Great Endeavour about ten years ago?
De Rasher Counter the latest to be ruled out for the season with a tendon injury. Hard luck to those on him, some fancy prices too
Nothing really to add but just came on to say I absolutely adore this race. For me the Hennessy is what racing is all about. A perfect mixture of battle hardened, game, experienced chasers, trying to bloody the noses of some young upstarts/potential superstars over a proper test at a galloping track. What more could you ask for?
I like Black Op. He did some jumping schooling with Yogi Breisner last year and it really helped, hope they give him a refresher again. Happy with his gentle spin round Carlisle. Unfortunately I sat around when he was 20s then TOTG was ruled out and he was immediately cut to 12s so I’ll just wait till the day now and put a bit on then.
Copperhead @ 10/1 (got 10.8 boosted with Hills)
Gone through the race and he’s my idea of the winner and I don’t think he’ll go off anyway near 10/1. I’m not too concerned about Wetherby as his seasonal reappearance runs in 17/18/19 and now 20 have all been absolutely appalling.
For me he ticks loads of boxes:
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8 (he’s 6)
9/12 winners ran within the last 57 days (last raced 31 Oct so just makes it)
8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury (he’s won over 3m2f at Newbury)
10/12 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further (he’s 3 from 4 over 3m+)
11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs (he’s run 5 times over fences)
9/12 winners were rated 148 or higher (he’s rated 152)
8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race (he won the G2 Reynoldstown very well)
9/12 winners had at least 1 run that season (he’s had a run, if you can call it that)I’m on Copperhead myself (at 16s) and really like his chances, especially with the Tizzard stable starting to hit proper form. BUT, how many of the past 15 winners or so have failed to complete in their last two starts prior to the race?
Once again, I’m quite happy about his profile and even more about the current stable form, but I still don’t know what to think about his last two starts?Tizzard horses were running at only a 3% strike rate at the time of Copperhead’s first run of the season. They are currently at 20% so running better now.
Nov 5th post
“Hi Mike, correct. Based on value (in my eyes), I couldn’t understand why the prices were so far apart based on the RSA form between COPPERHEAD and AYE RIGHT. This is not the case now though after that run against NUTS WELL ( distance too short) and CYRNAME (top rated chaser on figures).
Purely on value at that early stage I just thought it was a crazy price at 40’s!
COPPERHEAD is a smashing horse but the thing that was niggling me was his run a Cheltenham, as he looked absolutely shattered when coming down. Reminding me of fellow Tizzard horses who started out very well then their form seemed to dip for a year or so then came right back to form – SLATE HOUSE was one of these horses that springs to mind, year before last he promised but was poor but right back to form the following year (last season). RESERVE TANK year before last was a talking horse but failed to deliver last season and he may bounce back this season?
I do like COPPERHEAD and may well prove me wrong but I can’t have him until he shows some form again.
Good luck to everyone who has done COPPERHEAD though….”
It really pains me to say about LOSTINTRANSLATION today, hopefully this is not another horse that has lost its way for a season? I really hope not….
I really hope I’m wrong with COPPERHEAD but until he shows some form again I can’t have him for this.
If he runs well the Welsh maybe an option?
It’s going to be pretty dry for most of the week, with a little rain passing through around Wednesday, so it should be decent Good to Soft for Saturday.
With that in mind, i’ll have a bit on Mr Malarkey; his second season over fences was one of inconsistency but he still managed to finish 6th in this last year and is till only 7, with an excellent Newbury record under his saddleBlack Op wont stay.
The Conditional is possibly weight to his peak now
Aye Right is very good on flat, left handed tracks and the jockey booking will be interesting
Copperhead, Vinndication and Sam Brown could all run well, as could Two For Gold – there’ll be plenty of pace on.So i like the look of something at bigger odds that will be ridden prominently, although i’ll probably have a win bet on one of those favs on the day.
I’m thinking along the same lines with the weather for Malarky. He jumped pretty well at Ascot and looked happier than he did 8n the same race last year.
If it happened to heave down and go really soft then Sam Brown, although he is a bit short so would probably add Lamanver Pippin instead.Looking to add another one here, and agree with the Mister Malarky comments. Weather forecast probably in his favour too, so I’ll have a few quid just now.
I’ll be three handed if Regal Encore goes, for all that the forecast wouldn’t favour him as much, but he’ll never be an Antepost horse for me anyway.
Beware The Bear 33’s
Mister Malarky 25’s
Both EW 5 PlacesI’ve cashed out my Sam Brown bet. Forecast suggests the ground will be too quick for him and given he’s fairly inexperienced in big fields, cashing out for a full refund suits me.
Vinndication’s schooling left a lot to be desired last week but i think 8s is fair as he’s better off with Kildidart (my second choice for this) and The Conditional on their Cheltenham running and had a nice prep.
Most of the field would prefer softer going than what is forecast which complicates things.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.