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As is often the case, I go to the Showcase meeting at Chelt, and get all juiced up again so begins another stint at using my self divised rating system to pick value bets and lays.
N15:35 Weddell Sea seems overpriced given 3 placed finishes at over 2m this season, his last run on soft ground can be forgiven as he has never performed on soft ground.Catalan King as favourite makes little sense, plenty of others with better chances.
Weddell Sea 1pt Win at 15 1pt Place at 4.1
Catalan King 1pt Lay at 4.9 S16:55 Secret Road is only such a price as he is up againt hatrick chasing Scarboroughwarning, who won his last outing with plenty in hand. Southwell can be a different animal though and 2 wins plus 2 places in 5 starts here for Secret Road makes him worth a shot at this price.
Secret Road 1pt Win @9.4 1 1pt top 2 @2.78
+0.1
Chepstow 14:35 I like Leissiers Express and Iberio but the prices are bang on where they should be so no great value there for me. I will however be laying Mumfords Magic who can only be favourite because of the trainer / jockey appeal, his record at 3m+ reads PPP34 (4th place was 23 lengths a drift) there is nothing to suggest he will go the distance, although the course should suit.
1pt Lay at 5.8
Chepstow 15:10 Nocte Volatus held on to win at Uttoxeter back in May, conditions should suit, he runs well fresh, and a 5lb claimer on board who knows their way around Chepstow gives him a fair chance here I think.
1pt Win at 28
1pt Top 3 at 6.2 Catterick 14:12 I would have Desert Dream as favourite for this his record at 7f around here reads 372210112 the last run was in a class 4 race. Swift is back onboard with a better than 50% stroke rate around Catterick and rode Desert Dream to his last 2 wins. The ground will suit with a record on soft ground of 123874112.
2 point win at 11
Was left with far too much to do not getting onto the rail early+33.2 today
+33.3 overall
Bath 15:58 Ectocross is an absolute leap of faith that he can be truned out fit and ready to go but he goes well fresh, something was amiss in when last seen, if now in good health could spring a suprise here. 12 months ago he won a class 2 race in soft conditions over this distance.
0.5pt win at 22
1pt place at 4 15:05 Stratford Its hard to confident about anything in this race I have teh first 2 as RAzzo Italiano and Karannele both at attractive prices, but both dissapointing last time out if it wasn’t for teh jockey booking I would have given Karanelle a second chance, but Callum Pritchard has 1 win to his name in 65 outings in the last 12 months and os 0 – 47 over hurdles. I will however lay the favourite Penna Rosa who does have some previous good form, but all of his best form is going right handed.
1pt Lay at 4.3
-0.5 today
+32.98 overallN17:45 Daniels Flyer is back down from class 2 company, which was well out of his league but back down to class 4, even as top weight, makes plenty of appeal around here in this company an back over 7f. I have him priced at 2.6 so great value bet.
1pt win @ 9
1Pt place @ 2.46-2 / +30.98
Kempton 14:20 I am going to take on the favourite here and side with Aimeric who was 3 lengths behind Military Academy last time out. However on that day Aimeric was giving 7lb to MA thts cut to 5 today, added to the greater experince of Aimeric on the AW makes 5.3 a very attractive price.
Aimeric 1pt win @5.3
Military Academy 1pt Lay @1.92 Aimeric took the long way around and was punished for it.
-1.92
+29.06 overall
15:20 Sedgfield The most consistent form over fences goes to Dr Shirocco, goes well fresh, and down in class from his last couple of runs. Best form is on good ground, in with a good chance here.
1pt Win @ 12
1pt Place @ 2.5 14:00 Redcar All of Lightening Company’s best form has come on softground, so could be in with a good shout of running into a place here.
1pt Win @ 13.5
2pt Place @ 3.16 -5
+24.06 overall
17:05 Newcastle – Winged Messenger has some very nice form in the bag in better compamny than this, not been seen to best effect in his last couple of outings but now on a career low mark and down in class, this could be the opportunity he needs.
1pt Win @ 11
1pt Place @ 3.9 +22.06
Fontwell 14:00 Fortuna Linga has a really good chance in this if well turned out fresh, which hasn;t been a problem before. There seems to be a lot of money for RI NA Cuirte which cna have nothing to do with previous form The trainer does have an excellent record at this course on the face of it, but those 3 wins from 9 outings 2 were at the same meeting in January.
1pt Win Fortuna Linga @ 5
1pt Lay Ri Na Cuirte @ 3.9Been traveling for a couple of weeks so not had time to look properly and use the spreadsheet.
Back at it today, 15:54 at Warwick was teh only race really worth analysing with my spreadsheet, and I really like the look of Butlers Brief. Plenty of decent form against these, and a good 7lb claim, carrying a little bit more weight for the last win but the course and conditions should be ideal.
2 Point win @ 11
4 Point place @ 2.86 -6
+11.6
Southwell 18:30 I can see why Champagne Prince is the favourite, but is terrible value in this field, Andaleep on the otherhand, who is the only other in the race with any experience of Southwell, makes for much better value.
2pt Win @ 8.8
2pt Place @ 2.4-4
+7.6
Getting due a win
The 14:30 at Sedfield is quite interesting, a veteran in Finisk River with form way above anything else in the race against some up and coming youngsters. At the price, I have to give Finisk River a shot, if even turning up at 80% could be enough and Charlie Maggs eases 7lb and has a great record around Sedgefield. 3 races in 2 weeks could be too much of an ask for hatrick seaking Laser Focus despite running out a very easy winner last time, that soft ground will have taken its toll surely?
Finisk River 1pt Win @ 18.5 + 2pt Place @ 3.65
Laser Focus 1pt Lay @ 3.75
-2 / +13.6
Heltenham is just about a price worth playing in the 14:30 at Newbury, not a great run at Aintree over a too short distance and the a fall there a few days later when travelling well can hopefully be scrubbed from the form. The only question is has the handicapper got him where he wants him, the fall at Aintree means we didn’t really find out for sure.
One dark horse here Le Patron who was nothin special over hurdles, but won his first 3 starts over fences before a big hike in the weights seemed to really reign him in through Spring. Dropped back a bit now, but if trained up since March, could be a very nice horse.
Galop De Chase 2pt Win @ 3.4
Le Patron 1pt top 3 @ 6 (bet pending match)
I took a chance and backed Le Patron for teh win at 30 as well
+34 / +47.6
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