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Topofthegame may be one who progresses as the season goes on. None of the previous winners this century carrying top weight had a season off with injury. They either won an RSA or placed in a Gold Cup the previous season. Say he was 4th or 5th, fading in in the closing stages after being in contention. It would still be a good run and something to build on in my opinion.
Hi FF91, I agree, I think COPPERHEAD is a smashing horse and Tizzard would have learnt a lot from his campaign last season and I’m in no doubt he will be spot on for this.
I’m purely looking at value as on all known form AYE RIGHT is ahead of COPPERHEAD on the RSA running plus adding another 9lb into the mix puts him there or thereabouts.
AYE RIGHT ran over 2:1 (way too short, as a 3 miler) already this season and he ran a staying on second to NUTS WELL who then went on to win the OLD ROAN at Aintree last week off top weight (155). Taking that run into context, I honestly think that was a fantastic run from a horse to run second to a specialised 2/2:4 mile chaser at the top of his game and AYE RIGHT is a 3 miler.
The bottom line for me is that I can’t understand why COPPERHEAD is around 10/1 and AYE RIGHT is at 25/1.
Both should be there at the business end (if they turn up)
REGAL ENCORE was tanking along in midfield last year when he jumped into the backside of another horse and was quickly pulled up as Richie Mc knew his chance had gone, it was noted and I was all over it at Ascot (his fav track) at 16/1 next time…..Boom!
My 3 at this stage:
Kildisart – really eye-catching comeback run over hurdles, not sure he will be miles better than his mark if I’m honest, I could see him being a low 160s horse over fences which would give him 5lbs+ to play with, if Topofthegame runs he’ll still be getting a significant chunk from him.
De Rasher Counter – just watching back last years renewal and he cantered all over what turned out to be a very well handicapped horse in The Conditional, even with Ben Jones claim he was giving him 7lbs, I can’t see why De Rasher Counter is so much bigger than The Conditional having had a very satisfactory prep-run over hurdles. I doubt he’ll be more than a 160 horse over fences but if anywhere drags that level out of him it will be Newbury.
Hold The Note – probably the most risky proposition but the one with the most upside in terms of scope for improvement, he’s rated 146 but the comparisons connections made with Mister Whitaker and probably not just because he’s in the same ownership prior to Cheltenham were interesting. Mister Whitaker got up to 153 at the end of his second season over fences off an almost identical starting point so there is clearly some scope for Hold The Note off his mark and his prep run at the weekend I didn’t think was as bad as it will look on paper. He was beaten a long old way in the Novice Handicap at the Festival but just looking at how Whatmore ran in the Sodexo Gold Cup yesterday and he was a place behind Hold The Note, there’s no doubting the front two in that were very well handicapped horses. He’s gone out to 50/1 with 365, 33’s generally.
They’ve all had prep’s and I couldn’t personally touch one who hadn’t.
Added another so 2 ew for 5 places at present…
Copperhead 16-1
Aye Right 25-1Thought Aye Right might’ve got clobbered by the handicapper for running a bit too well in the Cyrname race but got raised just the 4lbs which would put him on 10 stone 12 if Topofthegame makes it which is ok. So hopefully the trainer decides to bring him here now.
I agree with AYE RIGHT Mike007
Improvement should still come to counter-act that 4lb rise (still well in in my eyes) as it will only be his 6th run ever over a chase, good horse this especially at this level.
Like yourself I’ve added another…..REGAL ENCORE was running a cracker in this last year when jumped into the backside of another and lost position then pulled up. Went on to win next time out last season after that run at Ascot.
This year, wins first time out and if improving for his win last week and a bit of luck this time around, he may run well? I know he is 12 but I remember last season Honeyball stated they had fixed a so called problem with him plus a wind op during this summer may eek out a tad more for this genuine animal,
AYE RIGHT 40’s and 25’s ew
REGAL ENCORE 25’s ewOctober 19th post….
“He could have well had too many hard races leading up to the RSA but I think AYE RIGHT deserves to be at least the same price (if not shorter) than COPPERHEAD?
COPPERHEAD 16’s
AYE RIGHT 40’s….”As of today….
COPPERHEAD 14’s
AYE RIGHT 16’s
I’ve been wrong many times before tho
Thanks to all who flagged Aye right on here, think it has a great shout and managed to pinch some 25s. All he has to do now is win
I was mistaken in an earlier post Yogi, I thought you were on Copperhead as well. Seems that is not the case.
Hi Mike, correct. Based on value (in my eyes), I couldn’t understand why the prices were so far apart based on the RSA form between COPPERHEAD and AYE RIGHT. This is not the case now though after that run against NUTS WELL ( distance too short) and CYRNAME (top rated chaser on figures).
Purely on value at that early stage I just thought it was a crazy price at 40’s!
COPPERHEAD is a smashing horse but the thing that was niggling me was his run a Cheltenham, as he looked absolutely shattered when coming down. Reminding me of fellow Tizzard horses who started out very well then their form seemed to dip for a year or so then came right back to form – SLATE HOUSE was one of these horses that springs to mind, year before last he promised but was poor but right back to form the following year (last season). RESERVE TANK year before last was a talking horse but failed to deliver last season and he may bounce back this season?
I do like COPPERHEAD and may well prove me wrong but I can’t have him until he shows some form again.
Good luck to everyone who has done COPPERHEAD though….
Disappointing news. Even worse that it is a recurrence of the same tendon injury. That might be him finished from racing which would be a shame.
The race is wide open now. Not a race I will be dabbling in until the day.
Very rare for me to go this far without a bet.
Regal Encore will definitely get a few quid of mine his way, but having missed that 50’s, I’m in no rush to take the 25’s just now. Hopefully that’ll hold a wee bit longer.
I thought that Sam Brown had an excellent seasonal debut behind Imperial Aura, and I’d be interested in him should it come up soft.
The one who’s starting to really interest me though, is Beware The Bear. He’s ran respectably in it the last two years, and he’s weighted to at least equal that. He wasn’t far away last year, and although I’m not a regular follower of Henderson Chasers, he doesn’t half get a good tune out of them for this race. He’s entered up this weekend, so I’m hoping for a quiet enough spin for him. I reckon 33’s is very big for him, and also not that long back he was impressive winner of The Ultima at The Festival. He’s my first bet.
Beware The Bear 33’s EW 5 Places
Ahh, BEWARE THE BEAR.
Ran a cracker in this 12 months ago and his run was barely noticed, ran 2 lengths 4th off 11 stone 10 with the most talked about horse (on this forum anyway) ELEGANT ESCAPE a neck in front of it in 3rd off top weight.
That was a cracking run and hard to remember he is still only 10, went to Cheltenham over the new year over hurdles, and lets just say he got around
. I bet it at 33’s for the Ultima again but Henderson bypassed the festival for a crack at the National at Aintree but that got cancelled as we all know so he was just put away for the rest of the season.Its funny VTC but he was my toss up second choice behind AYE RIGHT and I have begrudgingly left him this time for another old fav REGAL ENCORE
I can very much see your angle with the BEAR and I’m tempted but as of now I’m…
AYE RIGHT 40’s and 25’s ew
REGAL ENCORE 25’s ewI’ve got a good feeling about him Yogi, but it was a bit of a gamble betting him just now, in the middle of a forfeit stage.
Although I put up plenty of Antepost bets on here, the majority are just token bets, much smaller, certainly before the five day stage, and I save most of my bigger bets for after Final Decs.
I’ve taken a chance with Bear though, and he’s my first real Antepost bet this jumps season. Hopefully he’ll survive the forfeit stage now.
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