- This topic has 353 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Steep – I think BDM would handle better ground ok, it is just the fact that it won’t inconvenience his rivals in anywhere near the same way it obvioulsy does on much softer ground – of his 9 career wins to date only two were on good to soft with the others being three times each on soft & heavy and once on very soft (in France). There is a famous quote by an American Football coach Bill Parcells who said ‘You are what your records says you are’ and to date BDM’s record says in order to be at his best he needs testing conditions.
It was interesting that you mentioned his jumping flaws as on softer ground at a slower pace you have much more time to measure your fences whereas on better ground when you are going a much faster pace your jumping technique will be more thoroughly tested. He will also likely have a lot of company up at the front which could not only affect his jumping but also get him racing a fair bit earlier than ideal.
Also being French bred they are raised to be jumping at a much earlier age (BDM was contesting hurdle races at 3) and as such they are much more streetwise at an earlier age (compared to the British counterparts). Amazingly in just 3 yrs he has already had 23 races under rules to date (Kauto Star in his whole race career raced 41 times), so it is not impossible to say that a 6 yr old BDM may not have as much improvement in him as say a British bred 6yr old would.
All in all I think given hopefully decent jumping ground at Kempton we are more likely to have a much better understanding of how good BDM potentially is without the ifs, buts or maybes.
Roll on 26th!!
Cue Card, again!, has been said to be unlikely to run in this.
Still plenty time for Tizzard to change the plan several more times before Santa can finally post the answer down our chimney.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Whisper is a massive price at 16/1. Clearly a class act and ulra-consistent. It’s just a shame trainers these days assume they can have a horse finish second in a Hennessy and still get 10:05 in a Grand National and so enter horses in Grade One’s out of spite
I am sat here in comfort looking at my MIGHT BITE bet and very satisfied. He will beat this lot hands down and should be odds on in my opinion!!
You have not factored in the Caution Curse Raymo. Having backed him at 5/1 back in March, I am probably the Jonah here.
I am not as confident as yourself but he must have a great chance if he doesn’t recall his fall at the track last year when tanking along with the race at his mercy.
I have a bad feeling about Thistlecrack and prefer Bristol De Mai if it’s heavy, although I don’t see a new Arkle in the way that some do. I’m just not sure it’s as deep a race as it might appear.
Will I have to face the fact that I MIGHT BITE my own willy in the aftermath?
Good luck in overcoming the Caution Curse here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Might Bite locked and loaded. Never been so confident
Will go in again in the morning of Boxing Day subject to the ground
Surely Bristol De Mai is overpriced here. I make him more like a 6-4 shot against this lot. Might Bite the hype horse of the race.
There’s something about Might Bite that doesn’t completely convince me- just a thought that he’s been bullying weaker fields, and when something as good as he is pushes back at him, he won’t like it up him.
If anything it’s BDM that’s become the hype horse. He beats a horse on heavy ground convincingly who we now know is going to be retired. And for some reason people thinking he is now a wonder horse that can replicate it on good ground.
Might Bite was about 15 lengths clear of Whisper at the last at Cheltenham in the RSA and would’ve won by 20 bar the wandering around. Whisper as we have seen this season is very good.
Very soft ground at Kempton would make it more interesting for BDM supporters but I think Might Bite is out of the ordinary and will take this.
Might Bite was about 15 lengths clear of Whisper at the last at Cheltenham in the RSA and would’ve won by 20 bar the wandering around.
well perhaps, and he did look a bit of a machine at times last season, but you have to take the lack of concentration into account. In any case my view is that might bite has not done enough yet to earn his right to being a short priced favourite. I think he’ll be competitive but will be found out by one in two in the straight.
I was looking out for those lack of concentration traits at Sandown last time but only saw positives. Firstly he didn’t have to lead, secondly Sandown fences take a fair bit of jumping and his concentration was A1.
I watched Might Bite’s last race again, paying attention solely to his jumping. Sometimes he was excellent, sometimes he was good and a few times he was mediocre. There was one poor jump though, and it was at that stage that his jockey asked him to go catch up and Might Bite produced an excellent leap that took him into the lead.
I thought Might Bite looked a fair bit off full ripeness and I reckon he was quite tired at the end. I am not convinced he beat a good field there and he’s not yet done enough in my opinion to warrant such short odds.
I took 5/1 because he has obvious promise but he’s priced now as if he has already beaten the best. When you consider that Thistlecrack was trading at similar odds in a virtual match race last year, the comparative value is questionable in my opinion, hence the saver on Bristol De Mai at 5/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Doesn’t look like any significant rain coming in the next week so BDM won’t be getting anything like heavy ground come next Tuesday , Might Bite must be a certainty now
Might Bite must be a certainty now
No such thing as a certainty
Doesn’t look like any significant rain coming in the next week so BDM won’t be getting anything like heavy ground come next Tuesday , Might Bite must be a certainty now
All I can say is LOL
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.