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So you agree that Ryan is on the wrong one then…
No, Nathan.
Where’s that brick wall again?
It’s all about your favourite subject, probabilities.Ryan Moore wants to be on the one that has the best chance of WINNING!
Rostropovich is the most likely of the two to show his form – which means he’s more likely to finish in front of Hydrangea. However, Rostropovich has quite a lot of improvement to find if he’s to beat the Stoute pair – so is unlikely to win. Therefore, IF (that’s IF) Rostropovich beats Hydrangea it’s likely to be with them both fnishing behind at least one of the Stoute pair. ie Without Rostropovich winning.
Hydrangea may be less likely to show her form than Rostropovich; but because at her best she’s better than Rostropovich and not far behind the Stoute pair… She has imo a better chance of winning than Rostropovich.
So with Ryan wanting to ride the horse that has the best chance of winning, he’s made the right decision.
Value Is EverythingAny Group 1 race can turn out to have been below the average standard normally required to win the race.
The Prince Of Wales was supposed to be a shoo-in for Cracksman but he didn’t run to his best form. The question is how near to it did he actually run and I believe it was nowhere near 125.
The horses placed 3rd and lower all ran like handicappers and it gets quite tough to have much faith in a race where a Derby runner up and a group 2 winner are running to about a 100 on the day.
I have a theory that if horses can run a good bit below their best, it is quite possible that they actually ran a bit worse still.
The assessors took the view that Poet’s Word improved a fair bit but I feel it is just as plausible that Cracksman had run a bit worse than given credit for and that Poet’s Word may have only had to run to his previous figure to beat Cracksman the way he did.
The Racing Post gave Cracksman 121 but if they had left Poet’s Word on 119, then Cracksman only gets 115 for his run.
Connections did not come out after the Prince Of Wales with the demeanour of a team who felt their horse had run near to his best. They were bereft and plenty of theories for the poor effort started to emerge. You very much got the feeling that the jockey was never happy with how Cracksman travelled and it asked a big question as to how Cracksman could possibly have been near his best, given the reaction from those involved with him, and who know best what he is normally.
I have always suspected that the horse needs soft ground in order to travel comfortably. If he gets it soft enough tomorrow he will either win well, or we will know that something is way wrong with him.
After losing Kew Gardens to an infection, I feel lucky to have my original bet of Cracksman at 4/1 back in action due to the rain coming.
Cracksman was 2/5 last time, yet despite not facing anything more daunting this time and likely to get his ground as well, you can get 11/4 this time.
I expect the money to come for him tomorrow. There was a time, not so long ago, that you would have been blinking in disbelief at Crystal Ocean/Poet’s Word/Cracksman all at 5/2
Surely the one time wonder horse to many is worthy of a go at 5/2
Cracksman at 4/1 and 5/2 for me.
“I’m singing in the rain………”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Going update
“The Going is Good to Firm, following 2mm rain since racing on Friday.
The forecast is for possible occasional showers this morning, breezy and any showers clearing for a mainly fine afternoon.”
Less rain than if they would of watered.
Where’s that brick wall again?
I think your head and has enough of hitting it Mark, it’s starting to affect the ginger matter inside
According to the bookies it’s about 2% difference between the two’s chances of winning
If we forget Rostrpovich’s debut then Ryan has rode him 5 times the going those days y/sft, sf/hy, hy, gd and sft. Ryan has taken his eye off the ball, the going is still gd/firm at present if the updates are correct with a few showers forecast.
Hopefully Rostropovich runs a race that will give him the best chance of winning and not be used by Aidan as one that will set off in front stop at half way, stand up on his back two legs and use the front legs as clothes lines to take out the Stoute pairBlackbeard to conquer the World
Early report from Gosden doesn’t look overly promising for Cracksman………
Latest update from John Gosden on Cracksman: “They’ve had 2mm overnight at Ascot which isn’t enough for Cracksman to run at the moment as they would have put 5mm on if they had watered. The horse is on his way to the track and I will have a look when I get down there.”
According to the bookies it’s about 2% difference between the two’s chances of winning
Yes, there is only 2% between them with bookies, Nathan. But when we are talking about outsiders… “2%” is a third of the 6% (16/1 Hydrangea) and half of the 4% (25/1 Rostropovich) so in this instance 2% is fairly big “difference” between the two’s chances.
Value Is EverythingThe rain hasnt come, if he isnt running when its good to firm why does he need to have a look, just delaying a massive rule 4, frustrating…. will they actually pull him? … AO digging his nails in no doubt.
This Oppenheimer seems to be an old, greedy fart, and I really don’t hope he will urge Gosden to run Cracksman, which was already the wrong decision in his previous 2 races.
Hopefully Gosden will finally take a stand and choose the right option to pull him out!Suspect not pulling Cracksman out yet is more to do with what happened before the Dante. Gosden pulled Cracksman out there because he didn’t want to have a hard race on testing ground (might not have recovered in time for the Derby)… Only for actual ground conditions to prove nowhere near as testing. No doubt Cracksman’s connections regretted not running in the Dante. Not only did it cost the then lightly raced Cracksman probable victory on the day… but arguably lost the Derby because of a lack of experience.
If Ascot were to have an unexpected downpour between now and off time, then connections would regret taking him out too soon. So although frustrating/difficult for punters I can understand them leaving the decision until later in the day.
Value Is EverythingI’ve backed Poets Word 11/4 with a 5/2 saver on his stable companion.
Also a little @ 5/6 with Sky for either of Stoutes to win.
…And a 35/1 saver on Salouen, just in case he gets free on the lead.Value Is EverythingClose call but Crystal Ocean for me. I think over the distance he may outstay Poets Word.
As soon as I saw the odds this morning I knew it hadn’t rained. Oh well.
Crystal Ocean for me now. Coronet to follow him home.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very well done Johnny G. as Prudence has prevailed.
Cracksman has better things to do, he will return in the Arc stronger than ever!There is a weakness in Cracksman’s armour now. He now has to avoid fast ground and has had two disappointments to bounce back from.
Being 7/1 for the Arc tells its own story and whatever wins today may pass him in the market for Longchamp as well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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