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This is gearing up to be a cracking race. I feel sorry for any ante post punters that have backed Taghrooda for the Irish Oaks but I think it’s for the good of the sport that we have an unbeaten three year old classic winner running in the King George taking on the older horses. It is a bold move by Sheikh Hamdan who I suspect initiated this move and it is a very big ask for Taghrooda. She could be literally anything but she’s going to have to be an exceptionally good filly to win this running of the King George which looks to contain a solid and talented line up.
Telescope finally delivered the performance his connections clearly always believed him capable of when running away with the Hardwick Stakes at Ascots royal meeting. The twelve furlongs, fast ground and decent early pace seemed to bring out the best in him and he should have conditions to suit again next Saturday.
I believe Magician equaled his career best when chasing home The Fugue over a mile and a quarter at Ascot despite the general consensus that twelve furlongs is his best trip. It is likely that given a true run pace he can run to that level again and if he does he will go very close. On the downside, Magician isn’t always the most reliable of horses and if you back him you have to take the chance that he may not put his best foot forward and that the race is run to suit him if he does.
Eagle Top has only had a handful of starts and has plenty of scope for improvement. The Gosden colt came from last to first to win the King Edward V11 at Royal Ascot but I thought he benefited from those upfront going fast enough to set the race up for him and he may be slightly flattered. In any case that form isn’t good enough to win this renewal of the King George and if supplemented I’d rather be against him than with him at his current odds.
Mukhadram finally bagged his group one when he landed the Eclipse and is entitled to take his chance here. His breeding suggests his best trip should be ten furlongs but if he races prominently over a mile and a half as is his running style and the early pace isn’t strung it would help his chances of getting home. He will need everything to play into his hands to land this prize but it’s not impossible.
Should he run and should the ground be lively as expected, Flintshire comes into the reckoning. Flintshire has disappointed on more than one occasion but a fast ground twelve furlongs should be ideal for him. The French colt still needs to find a few pounds to win the King George unless those at the top of the market run below their peak but he’s not got that many miles on the clock and it’s by no means impossible.
Trading Leather will stay and will probably run his race but he doesn’t have a progressive profile and he will need four or five to run below form if he’s going to win. I don’t see that happening.
I don’t think Romsdal will run. If he does he needs to improve to win but he’s very lightly raced and improvement is certainly possible. Given that Gosden has Taghrooda and Eagle Top to go to war with, I doubt very much that Romsdal will take his chance.
The rest have no chance.
Fantastic race in prospect. Magician is on the drift at the moment at 100/30. That is a good price if you can guarantee him running his race. Flintshire at 10/1 is fair value. Telescope may be is a deserved favourite but he’s short enough for me at 2/1. Taghrooda, Eagle Top are too short in my book and Mukhadram is about right. Value bets would be Magician 100/30 and Flintshire 10/1.
It is by no means a question of "how far" for Telescope.
There is a little known saying in the game and it reads:-
"Never trust anyone who works for a bookmaker, when it comes to talking about the chance of a horse in a race"
I have backed Telescope at 4/1 because I anticipated he would be shorter come the day. He put away the field in the Hardwicke in good style but runner up Hillstar, third horse Pether’s Moon and 6th horse Dandino did little to excite that form behind Cavalryman in The Princess Of Wales at Newmarket on their next start.
I am happy with 4/1 and the chance of improvement from Telescope but he is only a Group 2 winner thus far and Taghrooda is a Group 1 winning, unbeaten, Classic winning filly. The ratings are 123 for Telescope and 116 for Taghrooda but he has to give her 15lbs because of age and sex allowances. That puts her well in and she is arguably open to more improvement, with only three runs under her belt and clearly defined major improvement from run 1 to run 2 and run 2 to run 3 already in the locker.
As soon as I realised Taghrooda was headed to Ascot I felt I had to cover my earlier bet and I took 5/1. That price is gone and 7/2 is the best available now.
Looking at the others, I don’t actually fear Magician that much. He’s won a Breeder’s Cup race but that form doesn’t often translate across to the UK. For me, his best form was when he strolled away with the Irish 2000 Guineas. He was famously tried after an accident in training against Dawn Approach and Toronado, where he folded tamely and showed his trainer had made a faux pas. This year he failed against Noble Mission but the ground was against him that day and it was probably another balls up from O’Brien to run him in those conditions. He ran better next time but Treve flopped, for whatever reason, and The Fugue was so bad next time (poor ride anyway) that they retired her. I may be wrong but I have some doubts about this horse and I think he is grim value at 5/2.
Will Eagle Top run? It will cost owner Lady Bamford £75,000 and that is a deep dig, even if you are part of the JCB empire. They will decide on Monday, but the promising colt who bounced back in good style last time has drifted out to 8/1 in a polar opposite move to Taghrooda, who has come in from those odds to 7/2.
I can’t see Mukhadram getting home over this trip. There was an unsatisfactory look to the Eclipse form with so many disappointments from poorly ridden fancied contenders. He’s not for me and although Trading Leather is game enough he is one-dimensional and vulnerable to finishers.
I have never been as convinced by Flintshire as some people and his Grand Prix De Paris win from last season has taken plenty pelters from a form perspective. I have considered him overrated to some extent and have opposed him successfully with 100% success thus far. No reason to believe that will change here.
I can’t make a case for anything else and I probably favour Taghrooda now that she is a definite runner. It is refreshing to see a bold move with a filly and I hope it pays off for a horse I have liked since day one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Magician looks certain to be in the frame but I think mukhadram is worth a punt again. I tipped him for the eclipse and if the race is run at a good lick I can see mukhadram and trading leather kicking for home entering the straight. It’s likely magician will sweep past if he runs his race but one of the gosden horses could surprise and the best each way could be romsdal. Roll on the big race. Great to see such a top field for the race.
I post from my own perspective, not anyone else’s. I’m on at 2/1 and absolutely gutted Taghrooda is running because it would otherwise have been a point and steer for Ryan, now I’m not so sure.
I post from my own perspective, not anyone else’s. I’m on at 2/1 and absolutely gutted Taghrooda is running because it would otherwise have been a point and steer for Ryan, now I’m not so sure.
Just a tongue in cheek comment by me there.
With the Bet Victor logo and the suggestion Telescope would hose in, you could excuse the scepticism from some readers. Your word is good enough for me though.
I’m not so sure it would have been a steering job though, because even though he won well last time it didn’t look a good renewal of the Hardwicke.
Magician is a decent rival, although I don’t think he’s quite as good as some people seem to rate him. Eagle Top showed much improved form last time and Telescope will have to concede 12lbs if the Gosden horse is supplemented. Mukhadram is useful and although he is trying a new trip he’s a better horse than anything that ran in The Hardwicke this year.
A good chance for Telescope but I wouldn’t back him at the odds available now. Taghrooda is as low as 5/2 now and at the current rate of contraction she could go off favourite for the race come the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
In case people arent aware magician was named best three year old colt in the cartier awards and now he has the right distance and conditions is the one to beat.Expect a large amount of smart money for him and hopefully he shows himself to be the colt many of us thinks he is.Hell need to be to beat a cracking field.
In case people arent aware magician was named best three year old colt in the cartier awards and now he has the right distance and conditions is the one to beat.Expect a large amount of smart money for him and hopefully he shows himself to be the colt many of us thinks he is.Hell need to be to beat a cracking field.
I don’t pay much heed to awards and I think most people know what Magician’s achievements have been. Dawn Approach, Toronado and Ruler Of The World all blotted their copy books on their final runs of the season and ruled themselves out of the award. Magician was about the only one who finished the season on a high and, in my opinion, that was why he picked up the gong.
For me at least, if you take away the Irish 2000 Guineas run and The Breeders Cup run, you are not left with anything like the same form from Magician in his other races. He has had two runs at this distance and won one, however that was on firm ground at Santa Anita, so unlikely to have been such a test of stamina. With Mukhadram and Trading Leather likely to set a strong pace, combined to Telescope being unlikely to hang around before committing, it could be a real test where a strongly run affair will mean every lb received will really count and Magician has to concede 15lb to Taghrooda.
Perhaps my money on Telescope and Taghrooda for the race is not the "Smart Money" that the cash of those who are going to come and back Magician will be, but 4/1 and 5/1 respectively isn’t looking too shabby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Magician seems friendless thus far. Out to 4/1 in a few places now.
Eagle Top has hit 10/1, which is double what he once was. Do some bookies know the score regarding his supplementation D-Day on Monday?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tarfasha lost today at the Curragh.One down….to go.Never send a boy on a man’s errand.
telescope is far too short as is tagrooda magician is the value if the ground is good to firm.
telescope is far too short as is tagrooda magician is the value if the ground is good to firm.
Magician a definite runner?
I believe so. Has been his mid season target and as long as the weather holds will line up.aiden stated this a couple of weeks ago.
Eagle Top has been supplemented, so it just got a little tougher for Telescope. Magician is in there as well as Noble Mission, Mukhadram, Trading Leather, Flintshire, Romsdal, Brown Panther, Taghrooda and pacemakers Leitir Mor and Hall Of Mirrors.
The first observation has to be that if ever there was a race that
didn’t
need pacemakers it is this one.
Noble Mission, Mukhadram and Trading Leather all like to get on with it, although perhaps Noble Mission may want to go a little bit easier, given that he got caught after racing with the choke out for too long last time in France.
It all points to a very strongly run race and there will be no hiding place for anything with a stamina doubt.
For that reason I would rule out the front runners lasting home.
Flintshire, Romsdal and Brown Panther don’t look classy enough to me and that leaves a group of 4 in Telescope, Taghrooda, Eagle Top and Magician to concentrate on.
I would like to have seen Magician win a really stiff 12f contest because it is hard to erase the memory of his impressive Irish 2000 Guineas win where he showed ample speed to cut down Trading Leather with ease. His profile since has been less impressive and to me he has been poorly placed into races that did not allow him to do what he does best. I don’t think this race, which seems sure to be a war from flag fall, may be his ideal scenario. He has been noticeably friendless in the market and was 5/1 last time I looked, getting the leper treatment from punters.
Eagle Top made a promising debut before flopping badly in a soft ground handicap he should surely have won on the bit, based on an easy win at Royal Ascot next time. It turned out he was a sick horse that day and once back to health he won in very taking style in The King Edward VII from Adelaide, who went on to finish runner up in a valuable race at Belmont Park on his next start. It is difficult to assess how good the form of the Ascot race actually is but Eagle Top was visually impressive and apart from one blip he lines up with the same profile as Taghrooda albeit at a slightly lower level so far. Corals went 12/1 about him last night but it was quickly taken and I can’t quite recommend him at the odds now, with group 1 form not in the bag yet.
Similar comments apply to Telescope with regard to group 1 form. A long time fancy for the Derby he has had setbacks, not least of which has been a general malaise of the Michael Stoute stable. The yard dried up at the top level with only Estimate’s Gold Cup win last season making the mark in the Group 1 column for long enough. This year has seen the stable very near to it’s best again and Telescope finally looked something like the horse they, and many punters, thought he was. The son of Galileo came right away from his field in the Hardwicke to announce an imminent entry to the group 1 ranks was on the cards. Given fast ground and 12f you would think this fellow must go close here but this is a lot tougher than the Hardwicke was and he has to give weight to improving youngsters in a race likely to be run at a pace that will make every extra ounce carried seem like a bit extra still. At the current odds of 2/1 I can’t say he is a value bet but he is respected.
That leaves Taghrooda, who has eased slightly in the betting, as expected, now that Eagle Top has been added to the race. She must surely have won the Irish Oaks if she hadn’t been redirected here and we can only guess how much the change of target was due to trainer confidence and how much was due to the owner wanting to aim higher, thinking he could bag the other prize with his Epsom runner up. It is certain that Taghrooda has made big strides from two to three years of age and from race 1 to race two this season. She should already be competitive given the weight and sex allowance and she can surely improve again. Some people are knocking the Oaks form because of Tarfasha’s run in the Irish version but Tarfasha went off a silly price there, based on a nose margin against Volume, who hung at Epsom on the day. With the mucking about and delay at The Curragh, it may be that some fillies were inconvenienced. Funnily enough commentators said Tapestry was most affected and Tarfasha least affected, judging by the fillies mannerisms, yet it turned out the reverse transpired in the way they ran. In any case, Taghrooda was a ready winner at Epsom and similar, more scathing remarks, were made about the form of Taghrooda’s seasonal debut, which stank the place out but didn’t stop the winner going on to hose in, despite the murmurings and a drift out to 5/1 by Oaks day. I don’t think Taghrooda is a value price now but I do think she will win this. A perfect record and nothing has got close to her this term, she could easily improve again and has won at the trip, staying on strongly. She gets weight to offset the age and sex factors and will surely make a name for herself if she can lift this prize.
Game on!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This is an interesting race but certainly not a vintage King George…..Telescope as favourite tells you all you need to know and there isn’t a horse in the field that has proved itself as a Champion in any sense yet and even though it is an interesting race it is a below par KG for me.
This is an interesting race but certainly not a vintage King George…..Telescope as favourite tells you all you need to know and there isn’t a horse in the field that has proved itself as a Champion in any sense yet and even though it is an interesting race it is a below par KG for me.
I think it’s a very competitive King George but I agree with you in that there isn’t a really top notch proven mile and a half horse in the field. The nearest is Magician but he blows hot and cold so often it’s hard to know what to make of him. He has run only twice over the distance, on one occasion catching The Fugue in the final strides in a memorable clash at Santa Anita the other a rather average sixth in Meydan. That just about sums Magician up. On his breeders cup run he should be favourite for this race and 5/1 looks very big. Is it disturbing that he’s drifting? Maybe but I just think its probably because punters can’t be sure which Magician will turn up.
Telescope hasn’t won at G1 level yet and is 2/1 favourite. He is favourite on the back of one run, last months Hardwicke win. That was a good performance and a repeat should see him go very close but again, rather like Magician he’s hardly a consistent G1 performer and I wouldn’t be backing a horse at 2/1 for the King George on the back of one solitary run unless it was a weak and noncompetitive field.
Taghrooda as I stated in my other post could be anything but it’s difficult for three year old fillies to win a King George. Who was the last one, Salsabil 1990?
It’s a very competitive race if not a vintage renewal and I think Taghrooda running has added a lot to the race.
I’ve gone off Flintshire a bit, I’m not sure he’s good enough. I won’t be having a bet in the race, if I had to it’d be Magician and I’d cross my fingers that the Santa Anita version turns up.
This is an interesting race but certainly not a vintage King George…..Telescope as favourite tells you all you need to know and there isn’t a horse in the field that has proved itself as a Champion in any sense yet and even though it is an interesting race it is a below par KG for me.
It’s certainly a better renewal than last year’s race, that is for sure. Everyone raved about Novellist last season but he beat a Cirrus Des Aigles who was out of sorts for most of last year and who was running on fast ground. Trading Leather and Hillstar, who were second and third last year, haven’t won a race between them since and Telescope beat Hillstar by further than Novellist did in last year’s race, when he won the Hardwicke by 7l.
This year’s race has an unbeaten Oaks winner, surely that’s a Champion of some sort, and last year’s runner up lines up again this year. We also have Magician, Noble Mission and Mukhadram who are Group 1 winners and Telescope, who along with Eagle Top, is surely potentially Group 1 material.
I reckon last year’s race must go down as bobbins in comparison to this year’s race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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