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I think it is a cracking renewal but despite eagle top and tag road getting allowances I don’t think they will beat magician or telescope. Both of godsend 3yos form to me isn’t strong enough and while horses can improve rapidly I think a 4yo will win"
I think it is a cracking renewal but despite eagle top and tag road getting allowances I don’t think they will beat magician or telescope. Both of godsend 3yos form to me isn’t strong enough and while horses can improve rapidly I think a 4yo will win"
Are you worried that there is no money coming for Magician?
He was 5/2 not that long ago but you can get 11/2 now, which is a stonking price if you are a fan.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I post from my own perspective, not anyone else’s. I’m on at 2/1 and absolutely gutted Taghrooda is running because it would otherwise have been a point and steer for Ryan, now I’m not so sure.
I’ll lay the pair of the favourites,neither will win.
I post from my own perspective, not anyone else’s. I’m on at 2/1 and absolutely gutted Taghrooda is running because it would otherwise have been a point and steer for Ryan, now I’m not so sure.
I’ll lay the pair of the favourites,neither will win.
Not afraid of Taghrooda then Gord?
Unbeaten Classic winner in the fastest run Oaks since 1993. Last three runs rated 89, 103 and 118. Stayed on well at the trip last time and gets lumps of weight here.
I think it would be rash to assume she won’t improve again. If she found 7lbs further, after going up 14 and 15 last two starts, she would be rated 125 and, getting 15lbs, an older horse would have to put in one hell of a run to concede the weight.
I thought 5/1 was a big price and have stepped in. She’ll never owe me a penny after the Oaks but I hope she can do the business again.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve. I don’t want to swell your head but you are my favourite poster on this forum. I think you are very knowledgeable and I always take notice when you offer an opinion. There are some people in all walks of life that if they say something I totally ignore it because I don’t respect their opinion as they talk constant s h i t but there are the odd few who I always take notice of and you my friend are in that category.
There is a but coming
……BUT …………… please stop keep pointing out that Taghrooda is getting fifteen pounds, she isn’t. Well she is but that is because of weight for age and sex because she is a three year old filly so essentially it is a
level weights contest.
I thank you for your co-operation in this matter unless you decide it fun to deliberately irritate me
.PS! I apologise for an incorrect comment in one of my earlier posts when I asked if the last three year old filly to win the King George was Salsabil. It wasn’t, of course, I was thinking of the Irish Derby. The last three year old filly to win the King George was in fact, Pawneese in 1976.
P
Steve. I don’t want to swell your head but you are my favourite poster on this forum. I think you are very knowledgeable and I always take notice when you offer an opinion. There are some people in all walks of life that if they say something I totally ignore it because I don’t respect their opinion as they talk constant s h i t but there are the odd few who I always take notice of and you my friend are in that category.
There is a but coming
……BUT …………… please stop keep pointing out that Taghrooda is getting fifteen pounds, she isn’t. Well she is but that is because of weight for age and sex because she is a three year old filly so essentially it is a
level weights contest.
I thank you for your co-operation in this matter unless you decide it fun to deliberately irritate me
.PS! I apologise for an incorrect comment in one of my earlier posts when I asked if the last three year old filly to win the King George was Salsabil. It wasn’t, of course, I was thinking of the Irish Derby. The last three year old filly to win the King George was in fact, Pawneese in 1976.
P
Thanks for the compliment but judging by the pelters I get from some you may want to get a mental health assessment soon.
The race IS framed to be equal between younger and older horses but it is an inexact science to think that 15lbs will be the amount that bridges the gap between all 4yo colts and all 3yo fillies.
Horses will come into a King George with different ratings and we need to assess if there is theoretically more, or less, than the allowance between the horses in question when it comes to their respective, predicted abilities.
If we look at the King George as a race and consider the amount of weight a horse is carrying, we have to imagine what weights they would carry if the race were a handicap. At least one poster on this forum has opined that Telescope might not beat Taghrooda off levels, far less with the weight he has to concede.
The weight for age scale is a generalisation that can never be foolproof. It is an average at best. Different horses mature at different rates and it would be folly to suggest that the older horse automatically has a superiority of a defined margin over the year younger animal.
As I said a fair while back, part of my motivation for backing Taghrooda for the Oaks was that she was a January foal and it is possible that a three year old horse could line up for a Classic with a three month age advantage over their rivals. These things level out over time but at a stage of the year when horses are still growing up, I think the age factor can easily be overlooked in a system where every horse changes age on 1st January.
To summarise, I think Taghrooda is getting more than the average 3yo filly might be due as a weight concession, based on her actual chronological age.
Weight for age, handicap, whatever way you look at it, Taghrooda will line up carrying 15lbs less than Telescope and the other older colts. Can they really give her the weight?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Great posts Steve and you are also MY fav poster when talking sense and not joining The Great Gosden Bash on the main forum!
The weight-for-age equation has always interested me. I think it is quite clear that, by the end of the season at least, it is too much in the favour of the 3 year olds. At this stage though it is much harder to gauge. My old hero and inspiration for living, Sir Henry, used to say that he thought it was incredibly hard for a 3 year old to win an Eclipse but that by King George time they had a much better chance. I always thought that a really fascinating opinion as there is so little time between the two races but it was born out in the figures. In the 70’s, 80′ and 90’s the high majority of KG winners were 3 year olds whereas 3 year old winners were in a small minority during a similar period in the Eclipse.
In the last 20 years only three 3 year olds have won but, as has been mentioned elsewhere, the race has not always attracted the best 3 year olds recently (perhaps because AOB often targets the Irish Derby instead).
I am with you in thinking Taghrooda could be the first 3 year old filly to win it since 1976. I saw her at Newmarket in May and she LOOKED like a colt. She really is an immensely powerful looking filly and the word is she has only got better and is working the house down at the moment. It is a HUGE decision to come here rather than go to the Irish Oaks but that decision would not have been on a whim. What really impressed me at Epsom was the ease with which she travelled. Actually PH could have held on for longer and she would have won on the bridle. I think he will ride her with more confidence this time and produce her a bit later. She must go close.
I also agree with you that she has 3 main rivals especially as Noble Mission will be going to Munich instead. For me Magician sets the standard. He is a genuine 125/126 horse and, if he runs to that as he should, he looks too big at 6-1. Her loves fast ground, has course form and this is almost certainly his best trip. I don’t see him running above 126 though and is that figure going to be good enough to WIN this years KG? I doubt it.
Telescope has actually done nothing wrong this year. People have criticised him for not winning his first two races but we now know that the Noble Mission of 2014 is simply not the same horse as the Noble Mission of previous years what with the soft ground and change of tactics. Remember that IF NM had been retired as I thought he would be, Telescope would have won his first two races this season by 8 lengths and 9 lengths. He would then probably be 2-5 for Saturday’s race and be touted as the next Frankel! Saying that there is little doubt that he is a better horse on better ground and he was seriously impressive lto albeit in a weak race. He ran to 123 and so he needs to improve again but that is surely not beyond the realms of possibility.
I fear Eagle Top. His shrewd and beautifully articulate trainer (
) rates him very highly as does his jockey and again he brings course and distance form to the race. JG would not have advised Lady B to splash out 75 big ones if he didn’t think he had a serious chance and my guess is he is not sure who out of his big two would come out on top (and even if he did he wouldn’t tell you Steve!!!!) The money is coming for him and I am sure he will go well.So there are 4 in it for me and if any one of them won I wouldn’t be surprised. At current prices I would probably back Magician each way as I am certain he will be in the 3 but I will hold off til Saturday and hope that Taghrooda continues to drift to 3’s or 7-2. Then I’ll pile in and watch this exceptional filly do the business for Sir Johnny!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
From today’s Sporting Life website:-
John Gosden plans to walk the course at Ascot on Friday before making a final decision on whether to let Eagle Top line up in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday.
The three-year-old was a brilliant winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal meeting last month and was supplemented for this weekend’s Group One showpiece at a cost of £75,000 on Monday.
However, Gosden was hoping for rain ahead of the weekend and with the chances of any falling ahead of the race seemingly diminishing, he admits it is not yet certain Eagle Top will take his chance.
Tread carefully people!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Flintshire is out of the race, he has an abnormal temperature according to connections.
If Eagle Top comes out now there will only be 1st and 2nd for each-way punters.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The rain has changed the complexion of this race now. It looks like the ground will be on the soft side of good and if it keeps raining it could be genuinely soft.
Will this disadvantage Telescope and Magician in particular? It may well. How will Taghrooda deal with it?
Romsdal at a big price wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world.
The rain has changed the complexion of this race now. It looks like the ground will be on the soft side of good and if it keeps raining it could be genuinely soft.
Will this disadvantage Telescope and Magician in particular? It may well. How will Taghrooda deal with it?
Romsdal at a big price wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world.
Romsdal might be a shout at the odds if it is soft. Telescope, Magician and Trading Leather need it good or faster. Mukhadram will find it hard to get home at the trip if stamina is drawn out further by soft ground.
Gosden got his rain for Eagle Top, maybe more than he wanted. Taghrooda won on good in the Oaks and prior to the race the trainer had said really soft ground wouldn’t be her favourite. On the plus side for her the weight concession will probably count more in a bigger stamina test.
I think Telescope would look a lousy favourite if it turns soft and the Gosden pair may well be the first two in the betting by race time.
I hope the ground isn’t too bad, as several will run below their best if it is.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think too much is being made of the rain and that it will not be worse than good-to-soft.
That will probably be enough to cook Magician’s goose, but I’d expect the others to handle it well enough.
I’d be far more concerned with Telescope on genuinely good-soft than I would be for Magician, AOB’s four year old was fairly impressive at Chester on good-soft last season; albeit improved on a firm surface later on. Telescope has done nothing of worth on a soft surface. Indeed the Stoute horse may need a firm surface to produce his best. That said, absolutely nothing comes in to this race with their "best form/run on a the soft side of good. However, it may well be genuinely "good" by off time.
My 100% book for genuinely "good" going:
If it does ride good-soft I would not be at all surprised if Eagle Top starts favourite.Value Is EverythingI think too much is being made of the rain and that it will not be worse than good-to-soft.
That will probably be enough to cook Magician’s goose, but I’d expect the others to handle it well enough.
There are many in this race with their very best form on good-firm/firm (not just good) TYF. So "good-soft" must imo be as big a negative than some races/horses are when it’s "soft".
Value Is EverythingThe top one is ginger and the bottom one is no way yellow.
Your two in green do look the best plays.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Disappointed with the rain on watered ground for Taghrooda. Personally, I think she will find it difficult unless the ground dries out.
That isn’t to say she can’t win because there is nothing in the field that stands out as likely to both appreciate a softer surface and have the required level of form.
There appears to be an assumption that the softer surface is in favour of both Eagle Top and Romsdal. So far the formbook doesn’t bear that out. By some distance both have recorded their best efforts on a quicker surface.
The case for Eagle Top rests solely on one run and it isn’t that difficult to pick holes in that one run. The bit where he appeared to be swinging on the bridle for about 50 yards looked pretty impressive but prior to swinging in it looked as though he was being scrubbed along just to keep in touch. Adelaide is decent but in the context of this race no more than that and you have to think Scotland just picked up the pieces. To win he will need to improve for the ground and hope that the others don’t cope. It might happen but for me he is much too short.
Romsdal handled the Chester surface but the Halling/Singspiel cross doesn’t really shout soft ground lover. I prefer him to Eagle Top and if the ground dries out he could make the three.
Pricewise has put up Eagle Top.
To quote ‘the fact connections have forked out £75,000 to supplement him is a sure indication Gosden wasn’t telling them he didn’t think he could beat Taghrooda and Romsdal.’
Really? Well according to one of his interviews it was the intention to supplement straight after Royal Ascot. At that stage it was huge odds against Taghrooda running. Once confirmed was he really going to say to Lady Bamford don’t bother stumping up as Taghrooda’s got this in the bag? I suspect Lady Bamford didn’t struggle to find £75,000.
……
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) rates him very highly as does his jockey and again he brings course and distance form to the race. JG would not have advised Lady B to splash out 75 big ones if he didn’t think he had a serious chance and my guess is he is not sure who out of his big two would come out on top (and even if he did he wouldn’t tell you Steve!!!!) The money is coming for him and I am sure he will go well.
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