- This topic has 67 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Where do we "know that Katchit has the ability" when I get his best rating at 159. Champion Hurdle ratings are usually around the 170 mark.
Where is there any evidence that Katchit can improve ten pounds or so?
We know Sublimity can, we know Harchibald can both have run to that level in the past, we even know Afsoun can run well into the 160’s.
Where is the same evidence regarding Katchit? He’s a tough horse who always runs his race. The last two starts have been against better opposition than he’s tackled before and he’s still run his usual race but he just hasn’t been good enough to win either race.
I for the life of me can’t see him finding anything like the amount of improvement he needs to win a Champion hurdle. Thats a matter of opinion of course but to say "we know he has the ability" is plain wrong, we don’t.
Ratings Ratings Ratings
Do you know how many Champion Hurdlers apart from repeat winners that were actually top rated?Leet me know if you do but at a guess I would reckon round about 4 in 30 years.
The form and ratings are all to pot……didn’t Blythe Knight kick Osana into touch a while back…..maybe he should be odds on fav and top rated now as Osana just stuffed last years Champion.
You only need to uses your imagination to know that if Katchit gets a lead down that hill and he is on his best form, he’s going to be one hard nut to crack.
If he is not Champion Hurdle class someone better tell Sublimity who on a strict form guide would now, be as well staying at home
Ratings Ratings Ratings
Do you know how many Champion Hurdlers apart from repeat winners that were actually top rated?round about 1 in 30 years.
The form and ratings are all to pot……didn’t Blythe Knight kick Osana into touch a while back…..maybe he should be odds on fav and top rated now as Osana just stuffed last years Champion.
You only need to uses your imagination to know that if Katchit gets a lead down that hill and he is on his best form, he’s going to be one hard nut to crack.
If he is not Champion Hurdle class someone better tell Sublimity who on a strict form guide would now, be as well staying at home
Ratings are a guide I didn’t say they were the be all and end all.
Fact is though no horse will win a Champion Hurdle running to a mark of 159. Katchit has to improve a fair bit on that and I don’t think he will he doesn’t have the scope for that sort of improvement.
I tell you now : KATCHIT WILL NOT WIN NEXT YEAR’S CHAMPION HURDLE.
Waste your money if you wish.
I will be online (acts of god permitting) after the race to read your excuses
If I’m wrong I will hold my hands up and admit as much – but I won’t be.
Catch Me looks a hell of a bet at the available 33/1 especially when you consider his run behind Aran Concerto last season. The winner that day was obviously disappointing at the Festival, but his efforts in Ireland were top class and he was by no means certain to finish ahead of Catch Me before he fell two-out.
Harchibald is the class act in the race now, with Sublimity having looked distinctly ordinary (despite it being his reappearance) in the Bula and any form involving Penzance clearly open to plenty of scrutiny.
I also don’t think Katchit will win the Champion Hurdle next year. Althogh Osana was impressive in the Bula, the reigning champ, in my opinion, Sublimity is still the one they have to beat come March.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I hadn’t anticipated fancying Harchibald to land the 2008 Champion Hurdle at the age of nine but I do provided there’s a strong pace. I’m amazed how much discussion there is of his chance which fails to deal with this aspect. As I have said many times before, he was in my opinion beaten in 2005 because Hardy Eustace had been allowed his own way in front with O’Dwyer setting a steady gallop in the first half of the race. In consequence, Hardy wasn’t stopping after the last and found a bit extra on the run-in. Given a breakneck gallop in March, Harchibald would very likely not only cruise up to them approaching the last but also cruise past them after it.
The problem is that this appears not to have occurred to his trainer who never mentions pace when discussing the horse’s Champion Hurdle prospects and who has been quoted to the effect that it doesn’t matter to Harchibald whether the gallop is slow or fast. For me, he’s simply wrong and he’d be well advised to do something about guaranteeing a strong pace in March. I’m not holding my breath, however.
I hadn’t anticipated fancying Harchibald to land the 2008 Champion Hurdle at the age of nine but I do provided there’s a strong pace. I’m amazed how much discussion there is of his chance which fails to deal with this aspect. As I have said many times before, he was in my opinion beaten in 2005 because Hardy Eustace had been allowed his own way in front with O’Dwyer setting a steady gallop in the first half of the race. In consequence, Hardy wasn’t stopping after the last and found a bit extra on the run-in. Given a breakneck gallop in March, Harchibald would very likely not only cruise up to them approaching the last but also cruise past them after it.
It is a difficult one though with Harchibald because he doesnt find much when asked, that was the problem in the 2005 Champion Hurdle, came there absolutely cruising but found nothing when asked. I do think that Paul Carberry should have kicked on a bit more after the last flight but he just waited and waited and by the time he decided to have a push, it was almost too late and Hardy Eustace found more on the run in.
Katchit – Not big enough, Not quick enough, not enough scope, not going to win…
Learn from last year with Detroit City (Who had much better form at this stage).. You need an amazing horse to win the CH the year after the triumph and Katchit is a long way from amazing.. He beat the square root of bugger all in the Triumph and has beaten the square root of bugger all this season..
I love the horse and his tenacity but he simpy isn’t good enough. I’m with Flash on this one..
Katchit – Not big enough, Not quick enough, not enough scope, not going to win…
Learn from last year with Detroit City (Who had much better form at this stage).. You need an amazing horse to win the CH the year after the triumph and Katchit is a long way from amazing.. He beat the square root of bugger all in the Triumph and has beaten the square root of bugger all this season..
I love the horse and his tenacity but he simpy isn’t good enough. I’m with Flash on this one..
Aragon,
He beat the reigning Champion Hurdle winner.
JohnJ
So did Penzance, JJD, are you seriously telling me he’s worthy of consideration in the Champion Hurdle?
John, who do you think will finish in front come March? My money would be on Sublimity.
Katchit’s profile is alarmingly similar to Penzance’s actually and I can see Katchit getting lost in the no mans land between top company and top grade handicaps (Where as a small horse he’s going to struggle to lug big weights), which is pretty much what happened to Penzance.
The Champion Hurdle winner, in my opinion, will once again be Irish and probably from from Meade’s stable. I was hoping Clopf would become a CH contender but he doesn’t get a stiff 2 miles. He barely gets 2 anywhere by the look of it. Aitmatov may well be the dark horse as he will stay every inch of the cheltenham 2 miles and can go a good gallop. His hurdling could however be a bit sharper and he may lack a turn of foot.
Catch Me looks a hell of a bet at the available 33/1 especially when you consider his run behind Aran Concerto last season. The winner that day was obviously disappointing at the Festival, but his efforts in Ireland were top class and he was by no means certain to finish ahead of Catch Me before he fell two-out.
The form of the Aran Concerto race isn’t worth a light in terms of Champion Hurdle form. The race turned into a sprint and the hugely disappointing Leading Run was only beaten three lengths. Given his pedigree the winner would almost certainly find two miles too sharp on decent ground and has yet to show that he finds a great deal off the bridle.
If you know anything about horses Aragon do yourself a big favour and pay attention.
Firstly forget Katchit’s form this year all accept for one thing. He has run well enough in his 3 races this season to run in the Champion Hurdle. They expected nothing more than that as he was not right 2nd time and short of work the other day.
If I were you I would go to U-tube and play last years Champion Hurdle and watch Sublimity, never mind that it was the Champion Hurdle just watch the horse.
He jumps the last, hangs, is unbalanced, gets straightened out but come up the hill like a horse who wasn’t relishing it one bit.
IMO It is not his ideal track and if he comes up against a couple of decent horses like Harchibald and katchit he will fold like a pack of cards.
Now go and watch Katchit in the Triumph……….Now that’s a Cheltenham horse if ever there was one. Quickens away from his field take a clear lead going to the last, jumps it brilliantly, accelerates away from it head is down and gallops like a tiger all the way up the hill to the line. Wins by a Denman mile.
For me Katchit won’t be ready until Champion Hurdle day and when he is it will take more than Sublimity to beat him. Harchibald could but he is getting a bit long in the tooth.
I wouldn’t mind 9/4 in a straight match Katchit v Sublimity in fact I would have bundles on.
Fist Of Fury – you know what this reminds me of? Zorro with Deep Impact before last years Arc.
Deep Impact?
Isn’t that the horse who came from asia who was touted as abit of a racing certainty and stopped like he had hit a brick wall going into the final furlong?………have to excuse me I know very little about flat racing of late.
If so he reminds me of things to come when Sublimity stops half way up the hill at Cheltenham and cries I confess "I am Zorro"
Aragon,
You stated that Katchit has beaten the square root of nothing, I simply replied that he beat the reigning Champion Hurdle winner. Come March Sublimity may indeed reverse the form, but at the moment i would rather stick with Katchit.
JohnJ
Me too to be honest.
I personally dont think Sublimity will do that well at Cheltenham next March. I would even go as far as saying that Katchit will replicate the form from the weekend and finish ahead of Sublimity again in the Champion Hurdle.
The odds on offer for Katchit, Ante Post, look quite tempting (at the moment).
Do you know how many Champion Hurdlers apart from repeat winners that were actually top rated?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.