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People are under-estimating Katchit’s run at Newcastle.
He was beat by two battle hardened (not the best term to describe the winner) hurdlers and not by that far on his first run out of his novice years. He is open to improvement so should not be as easily dismissed as he has.Cian
He should have improved from Aintree to Newcastle, he didn’t and thats why he was beaten by battle hardened Al Eile and Harchibald, horses who are probably in the same league as Afsoun, Macs Joy, Straw Bear etc
I think Harchibald is better than the three mentioned – maybe Mac’s Joy at his best would have been as good as Harchibald, but I don’t think MJ is at his best anymore, whereas at least there is hope that Harchi is near his. And his form splitting HE and BI in 2005 is as good as any in this year’s race.
On what basis is Katchit open to improvement? His level of ability is well known. He was an exceptional 4 year old but taking on older horses is a totally different matter which he and Detroit City both illustrated.
I suppose giving 4lbs to the winner and beating last years CH winner getting 4lbs (Afsoun also behind) could be ragarded as a huge improvemnt on his 4 year old form.
The form probably isn’t worth a hoot but at what rate are they brining Katchit along? Do we know if he was 100% spot on today?
Horses have been beaten in far worse races than todays and went on to win the CH. If they weren’t open to improvement we would have 20/1 and 33/1 winners would we?
Detriot City isn’t a line you can use the horse was a class animal who clearly had something wrong with him and that probably had a lot to do with him running the bad races he did.
The basis on which a horse improves is simply maturity……….Champion Hurdlers are usually at there best as 5 6 or 7 year olds and its a long time to March.
The question is can Katchit improve on todays running and reverse the form come March? Be a brave man who says he can’t and most of the bookies seem to agree…….Sublimity has drifted, Harchibald is steady and Osana and Katchit are mainly around the 7/1-8/1 mark.
However if it was being run tomorrow my cash would be on Harchibald but it’s not……….I still think come Champion Hurdle day Katchit will give them all a run for their money.One things for sure there isn’t a horse more suited to Cheltenham than him.
Another day with no excuses for Katchit and still people think he is going find enough to win a Champion Hurldle. I must be missing something.
Another day with no excuses for Katchit and still people think he is going find enough to win a Champion Hurldle. I must be missing something.
Don’t think, in fact, i’m sure your not missing something Smithy
A perfectly respectable run from Katchit today, but I can’t see him winning the Champion Hurdle.
Osana needs to improve as well – he received an easy lead, a 5 or so length start on the field and 8lbs from some of them today.
Sublimity ran like a horse who badly needed the run and still must be considered the horse to beat.
On the flat Sublimity was pretty unreliable, very capable on his day but more likely to run badly. In his last 7 flat races he was last 3 times, second last in another yet managed to win a listed race. I can well remember him boiling over at Sandown and running a terrible race. I do not really see why he should be a lot different over hurdles. Don’t see him as a dual champion. Not very keen on Katchit either, find an alternative!
Harchibald should be fav but I think something else will come through the ranks to be a champion hurdle winner as there is nothing special shown yet
Katchit – Soundly beaten again by older horses. Doesn’t have the physical scope to improve much further either. If I could tie up a large amount of money between now and March I’d lay it for every penny I have.
Osana – I wouldn’t make a big deal about the few lengths he stole at the start. The gap was only 1 length crossing the second and he earned the 8 lengths lead he regained down the back with a strong gallop. Its also entirely possible he can continue to improve. Looks like he needs to dominate a field to be at his best which wont happen in the CH and would that would be a minus for me.
Sizing Europe – Must come into it now given the Greatwood form
Sublimity – Nowhere near fully wound up. He’s being trained for 1 target and 1 target only. The serious work on him wont start until the new year. Jurys still out but antepost price is a tad short imo.
Harchibald – Might be back to his best but he doesn’t do battling victories. I’d never trust him up the hill at the festival.
If I was an antepost player I’d be looking for an unexposed 2nd season hurdler further on down the market.
Although the race has a pretty open look I have to admit it is now very unlikely that Katchit can win a Champion Hurdle. He ran well enough but having looked likely to mount a challenge running to the last he flattened out pretty quickly. The advantage of his slick jumping is no longer there – in fact he was reaching for several flights and one day that could see him on the floor. As for the winner I thought he folded pretty tamely when taken on in the County Hurdle so it remains to be seen what will happen without the easy lead – but then again maybe he is a better horse this year?
Sublimity still has to be considered the one they all have to beat. He defeated Brave Inca in this years renewal and that horse was far superior than any of the main contenders for next years event. He travelled well for most of the way but just got tired in the closing stages – a sign that he probably needed the race.
His main danger is still Katchit. I was impressed with the way he stayed on up his favourite hill. Rounding the final turn, he had far more hardened animals around him yet still managed to fight them off. This race could be the making of him as a true CH contender. There’s only a slim chance that either Afsoun or Straw Bear will finish ahead of these two at Cheltenham.
Harchibald will need to battle to win the CH – you can’t guarantee that will happen (!!). Taking into consideration the remainder of the current CH field, I’d be surprised if the winner didn’t come from either Sublimity or Katchit.
Personally, today was a race to enjoy rather than to put money on. Afterwards I’m not sure what to make of it, wouldn’t write Sublimity off, we know his main target, the Champion. As for the others, Osana is possibly an improver, maybe even a Make A Stand; Straw Bear looked to need the race, but I’m not sure he’s good enough. As I said before I’m still not sure. Are there any unexposed horses around? What about any Flat horses, e;g an Alderbrook, to come and beat them all?
Harchibald will need to battle to win the CH – you can’t guarantee that will happen (!!). Taking into consideration the remainder of the current CH field, I’d be surprised if the winner didn’t come from either Sublimity or Katchit.
Whatever about Sublimity there is absolutely no evidence in the book to suggest Katchit is good enough to make Harchibald battle.
Harchibald will need to battle to win the CH – you can’t guarantee that will happen (!!). Taking into consideration the remainder of the current CH field, I’d be surprised if the winner didn’t come from either Sublimity or Katchit.
Whatever about Sublimity there is absolutely no evidence in the book to suggest Katchit is good enough to make Harchibald battle.
Harchibald defeated Katchit by 3L at Newcastle. You could say that Katchit was flattered by that margin, Harchibald won that well. However, we all know that Harchibald is not the same animal when he has to fight – he WILL need to do this at Cheltenham. Katchit still has plenty of improvement to come. He’s still only a 4YO remember. Take into consideration that he’s a far better horse around Cheltenham and I can guarantee you that there won’t be much between them at the final flight in the CH – only if Harchibald hasn’t waved the white flag already.
If it comes down to a battle up the hill between Harchibald and Katchit, only a fool would think Harchibald would prevail.
Encouaging run from Katchit but how he can still be considered a possible champion hurdle winner is beyond me. Choc was niggling him to hold his position mid race. Todays race tells us one thing……Sizing Europe is very much the dark horse of this years 2 mile division.
While it was obvious Sublimity will come on for his seasonal debut, he once again illustrated that tendency to display an awkward head carriage, something which would have to be a concern should he have to battle next March.
Thats as good as Katchit is he will not win a Champion Hurdle save your money fellas. He has not put up one performance within ten pounds of a Champion hurdle rating and he has no scope.
Good performance from the winner but had his own way and still has a bit to find. I could see him fighting for a place perhaps with a bit more improvment but he’s not going to win a Champion hurdle either.
Sublimity ran well enough just blew up will come on a fair bit for that. Afsoun wants further.
There you have it.
Champion Hurdle – Bring Black Jack Ketchum back in trip and he will really take some stopping!!
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