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Any early thoughts on this?
We already know that Cannonball misses the race
Diabolical
I won’t beat about the bush – he’s my fancy for the race. His best run in the UK thus far was in this race last year – anyone who recalls the race will remember he was stopped for a run up the centre of the course about a furlong out yet still got within 1 3/4 lengths of the winner (who flew up the stands rail). He came into the race in 2008 off a truly awful run in the Golden Jubilee – this years run was much better and the sprinters in the UK are IMO much of a muchness and we’ve no idea how Scenic Blast will handle the undulations of the July Course.The bookies seem intent on listing at least a dozen horses who won’t run in the race and the 40/1 available strikes me as cracking each-way value
I think Diabolical is always going to find one horse better than him.
Can we argue if Paco Boy will be quick enough?
Can we argue if Paco Boy will be quick enough?
I think, on balance, he will be…the Foret would be a decent guide as 7 furlong course there is maybe the fastest in Europe, being largely downhill for most of the way. He ran 11.4 secs per furlong at Longchamp (thats even better than Yeats
) in probably his most impressive performance to date.Big player at Newmarket for me.
NB Actually, although advertised as such, the Prix De La Foret course may not be the full 7 furlongs, but either way it supports his claims as a very speedy horse.
- Total Posts 17716
Any early thoughts on this?
We already know that Cannonball misses the race
Diabolical
I won’t beat about the bush – he’s my fancy for the race. His best run in the UK thus far was in this race last year – anyone who recalls the race will remember he was stopped for a run up the centre of the course about a furlong out yet still got within 1 3/4 lengths of the winner (who flew up the stands rail). He came into the race in 2008 off a truly awful run in the Golden Jubilee – this years run was much better and the sprinters in the UK are IMO much of a muchness and we’ve no idea how Scenic Blast will handle the undulations of the July Course.
The bookies seem intent on listing at least a dozen horses who won’t run in the race and the 40/1 available strikes me as cracking each-way value
Some of the prices they offer are truly amazing. As you rightly point out there are more than a few that are heading elsewhere yet they are quoted.
However this Scenic Blast is some machine when on song. If you are expecting a few undulations to stop him I think you are clutching at straws. He’s a very well balanced horse who travels like a dream. His jockey rode a couldn’t care less race at Ascot and oozed confidence He had an awful lot of horse under him and I may not back him but I sure as hell wouldn’t back against him.
To beat a horse like him you need to get him off the bridle or he is going to go past like a rocket. Once gone, it’s near impossible to peg him back in the short space of time left.. I can’t see anything we have at home being able to touch him.
If something is going to beat him I would be looking for something with an lot of early toe that could steal a march on him from the front.
As Martin says Cannonball went home on Tuesday but should be back next year.
Scenic Blast and Takeover Target are going to gallop on the course tomorrow (Friday) at 7.30am. I’ll be there to watch and will report my
opinions afterwards.JJ The Jet Plane is also on course to run and should benefit from the up-hill finish.
African Rose is also likely to run from overseas but sadly not Marchand d’Or.
I don’t think Scenic Blast can afford to push the button as early as he did the last time. Does anyone agree or disagree ?
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Bit of luck won’t have to push the button at all
Tough one to answer G got to depend what else runs. We saw AC come very late at Ascot and if Scenic Blast went too soon he might get caught late…still have to get to him and then pass him though so wont be an easy horse to beat
Yeah i agree. I doubled him up with conduit for the KG. Let’s just hope the ground is good enough for the JC.
Hard to split this this morning when they worked 5 furlongs on the July course – quickening the last 2f. – as they finished right up sides.
The rain soaked ground (had 90mm that morning) suited TT who floated over the ground without making a print, under Jay Ford. SC cut into it more but of course his rider, Dan Morton (his trainer), is considerably heavier.
I think it just proved that both horses are doing well in their preparations now and acted well on the undulations.
I think we can expect a big run and the softer the better for TT apparently.
Definitely Scenic Blast for me.
I haven’t been so taken by a sprinter since Major Hern’s Dayjur was around. His win at Royal Ascot was mightily impressive and his stride and effortless galloping style ( to me anyhow ) is very reminscent of another very good horse from a few decades ago ( albeit a middle distance performer) – namely, Sea Bird.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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Scenic Blast, at a top price 7/4 ante-post, gets my vote as the daftest price of the year.
I don’t think he’ll stay Newmarket’s 6f, didn’t before the King’s Stand, and the way he ran there just adds to that view.
The latest in a long line of Oz sprinters that have run well at 5f and haven’t got home at 6 imo, even without that, it’s a crazy price when we don’t know either the shape of the field or the ground.IMO there is no doubt that Scenic Blast will stay the Newmarket 1200m. His record at 1400m is good & is placed behind Weekend Hussler at 1600m. Having said that, he will want to do everything right to beat Paco Boy.
Be very wary judging Scenic Blast’s ability of running a strong 1200m on his King’s Stand win. In Oz he is not a genuine 1000m horse. Apart from the G1 Lightning Stakes all his good form has been at 1200 – 1400m. he was even touted as a Cox Plate (2040m) hope last Spring and was backed accordingly pre post. Unfortunately things didn’t go right for him and he was spelled after an impressive first up win over 1200m (no where near Group class). He’s a very good horse but, IMO, no Takeover Target (at his peak around 4 years ago). He should run a very honest race. Steve Arnold is a very, very good jockey too so he is being steered by one of the best.
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