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Anyone saying Scenic Blast wont stay at Newmarket over 6f sure hasn’t looked at the form to base their opinion upon. This horse was placed in the best Guineas in Oz behind a top class horse as a 3yo. All his best wins have been in straight course sprints. He went early at Ascot but a review of previous Gr1 sprints sees SB finishes late and hard.
Previous 6f failures from Oz have usually been those that run in the KS then back up in the GJ. Scenic Blast has always been set for the two races and thankfully they ignored the temptation to run in the Jubilee after the facile King’s Stand victory. Very hard to beat and his price below 5/2 is justified.
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On the contrary, Chiswickian, not only have I looked at the form, I’ve also looked how the horse performed on a much stiffer British track.
Like a good many Australian sprinters before him, Scenic Blast has form over further in his home country, yet they have mustered just 1 win over further than 5f in this country between them, many of them better horses than he, too.
It’s also a fact that British/Irish horses have shown to need a deal further to be at their best in OZ than they do over here. There’s plenty enough form, in both directions, to paint a clear distinction between how far a horse will stay in either jurisdiction and, based on a number of years studying the form of this phenomenon, I’d still maintain the opinion that Scenic Blast has it all to do – and is at a barmy price to achieve it.How many different horses from Oz have run over further in how many races since Choisir?
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How many different horses from Oz have run over further in how many races since Choisir?
I’ve no idea,Brendan, though I do recall good horses such as Takeover Target, Magnus, Miss Andretti and War Artist, all having a number of tries between them.
How many different horses from Oz have run over further in how many races since Choisir?
Since Choisir won the Golden Jubilee in 2003 these horses from Australia have had a go in the Golden Jubilee or July Cup :-
Choisir 2nd
Exceed And Excel 19th
Takeover Target 3rd
Glamour Puss 10th
Takeover Target 7th
Falkirk 13th
Takeover Target 2nd
Magnus 14th
Miss Andretti 15th
Mutawaajid 9th
Bentley Biscuit 10th
Takeover Target 4th- Total Posts 17716
It’s also a fact that British/Irish horses have shown to need a deal further to be at their best in OZ than they do over here.
Sadly you have once again displayed a lack of knowledge of Australian form. Hug’s Dancer winning a WFA mile race in Melbourne and many others destroy your theory that I have cut and pasted above. Numerous UK stayers have won below their UK "range" in Australia.
War Artist is a South African.
My example of Scenic Blast was quite clear. He is the only Australian horse to be set for the King’s Stand and July Cup without running in the Jubilee. Not too many horses since Phar Lap in the 1930’s back up for Gr1 victories inside a week anywhere on the planet. Takeover Target backed up unsuccessfully at Ascot every time.
Choisir had proven he could back up in Group races down the straight during his 3yo Spring in Melbourne before taking the KS/Jubilee double. It is arguable that he was subsequently below par in the July Cup as a result of those exertions though. He was not a superior horse to Scenic Blast on the form book. Scenic Blast has much better autumn sprint form in Melbourne than Choisir ever did. They were both Guineas placed.
On that point there is in fact no horse on the list with superior form to Scenic Blast let alone "many" as you assert. Takeover Target has longevity but not superiority. Miss Andretti only ever won an autumn sprint on a goat track tighter than Chester. Exceed And Excel’s form was even weaker. He finished midfield in a poor Guineas as favourite. Magnus was an inferior animal to Miss Andretti let alone Scenic Blast. The likes of Bentley Biscuit, Glamour Puss, Mutawaajid and Falkirk don’t even measure up and shouldn’t have bothered making the trip in the first place.
Longer distance Aussies like Starcraft, Haradasun and Elvestroem have done ok in Europe from limited exposure over the last few years. All have performed at around their best distances of a mile. Some theories have little scope. Others are absolutely baseless.
I hope this helps when it comes to factual enlightenment. I have no interest in oneupmanship just the facts. I maintain that this is the best chance the Aussies have ever produced for the July Cup.
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Chiswickian
I’m certainly no expert on Aussie form, but you’re going to do a lot better than the isolated incident of Hug’s Dancer, if you intend to teach me.
Can you ignore all our stayers, (Yeats. Double Trigger, Septimus etc) that the Melbourne Cup proved an insufficient test for, or all the horses we did better with (Vintage Crop, Vinnie Roe, Purple Moon, Bauer etc) that were unquestionably better over shorter on our turf?
War Artist may be South African, (my error), but does nothing to detract from the theory that warm climate horses don’t stay as far on British turf.
Scenic Blast may be the best you’ve had for a while – though even your own countrymen are unagreed on that – but, on what I’ve seen of his counterparts previously, and the way he performed at Ascot, I’d still say there’s doubt about him lasting home on Friday.
We shall see.
The bookies still offer a falling price on Paco Boy despite him being unlikely to run.
Trainer Richard Hannon admits it is "most unlikely" Paco Boy will contest Friday’s Darley July Cup at Newmarket.
Connections of the Queen Anne Stakes hero had been mulling a step back to six furlongs from a mile for the Group One feature and the four-year-old was among 14 horses left in the race at the five-day stage.
However, Hannon concedes that with the Newmarket ground currently described as good to firm and a fine forecast for the coming week, Paco Boy is likely to sidestep the challenge.
He said: "It makes sense to keep our options open, but the ground at Newmarket is good to firm, and, with only light showers forecast for Monday and Tuesday and the prediction of predominately dry weather after that, it could well be lightning fast come Friday, and there is no way that we would risk Paco Boy in those conditions.
"We will probably wait for the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville on August 9 – the extra half-furlong will suit us and the going is likely to be more favourable too," he told http://www.richardhannonracing.tv.
The handler also stressed he would have no qualms about returning to a mile with his stable star.
He added: "The Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville is the following Sunday and also comes into the mix, while we have certainly not ruled out the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on July 29. He won the Lennox Stakes there last season."
Another who will miss the July Cup is War Artist, with trainer James Eustace favouring a slightly easier return at Newbury the following week.
The six-year-old has been off the track since finish a close-up third in last year’s renewal of the Newmarket sprint and was forced to miss an intended engagement in last month’s Chipchase Stakes due to unsuitable ground.
Eustace explained: "After Newcastle was a no-go because of the ground, it left us in a dilemma over whether to go for the July Cup or not.
"We just thought using that race as a first run of the season would be harsh on the horse.
"The Hackwood Stakes is luckily only eight days later (July 18) so we’re going to go there instead."
Royal Ascot winners Scenic Blast and Art Connoisseur feature among the confirmations for the race.
Australian sprint star Scenic Blast ran out a hugely impressive winner of the King’s Stand Stakes on the opening day of the showpiece meeting, while Michael Bell’s Art Connoisseur sprung a surprise in the Golden Jubilee.
Another Aussie raider, Takeover Target, is set for his first run in Britain this year having missed the Royal meeting with a setback, while Mike De Kock’s J J The Jet Plane bids to build on his Golden Jubilee fourth.
France’s African Rose adds further international interest, while Duff is the sole Irish challenger.
Queen Anne fourth Main Aim could drop back in trip while Ancien Regime, Equiano, Intrepid Jack, King’s Apostle, Prime Defender and Fleeting Spirit complete the possibles
Does anyone know if African Rose is coming over? she’d look a big price if they got some rain.
Yeah Maarek outlined the July Cup as a race for her a couple of months ago. Personally I’m struggling to see a winner other than Prime Defender, Paco Boy, Main Aim or Art Connoisseur. I’d be surprised to see Paco Boy run and I’d be surprised to find out that Art Connoisseur isn’t an Ascot specialist. I thought I was very clever getting 85s on Prime Defender 10 days ago but he’s 85s now even after there are 70 less entries
Despite indications to the contrary on the Richard Hannon website, Paco Boy has been declared with Fortune up.
See the ground is now good and Newmarket may have been subject to the heavy rain on Monday.
However I do wonder whether the owners are calling the shots over where the horse runs. Hannon did not want to go on that unsuccesful trip to Dubai.
I like the horse. Hope he is not ruinedWell the draw’s not done this race any good at all. Paco Boy, Scenic Blast, Prime Defender, Art Connoisseur and JJ the Jet Plane have been drawn 1-5 respectively. I’d argue all day long that the only horse apart from those 5 with a genuine chance is African Rose from Stall 11.
I really do think Prime Defender is going to win this.
my points system
136 paco boy
127 takeover target
127 art connoisseur
126 scenic blast
122 fleeting spirit
120 main aim
112 jj the jet plane
110 kings apostle
107 prime defender
197 acien regime
103 intrepid jack
103 equiano
96 african rosewill back paco boy to win
and takeover target ewI thought many a pundit underrated Art Connoisseur’s Golden Jubilee run and can see him running another huge race, think he had real troubles last year which he can be forgiven for and also takke in to account they campaigned him wrong with hindsight the would have kept him with the sprinting duties.
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