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DOM tanked home with one turn of the foot and had plenty left from what I saw at the winning line. Fantastic horse
Took Zarkava at 7/1 a few months back and believe she is one of the best in the world right now. However, it’s definitely not cut and dry.
The Duke wont go to the Arc, I think Aidan O Brien hinted generously at that today in stating that Soldier of Fortune and Frozen Fire are being set up for the Arc.
As for NA, Jim Bolger stated a month or so back that NA would only run twice more this season and albeit Jim seems to go back on his word more often than Chinese judges cheat at the Olympics I can’t see NA going to the Arc….at the moment.
I’m more worried about Soldier of Fortune, with a very carefully placed rest, jeapordising my excellently timed ante-post bet on Zarkava.
As for todays race…..NA never got into it. I honestly feel that the trip is now too short for NA. If NA is going to pull that hard at the beginning of a race on a consistent basis then the horse needs a longer distance to get back in touch and push on. Over the course of 1m4f I have no doubt NA wouldve beaten the Duke today as he seemed to be just picking up some speed at the 1m1f mark.
Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer both shocked me today if I’m honest. I’d love to see Pipedreamer go over a mile now as I really think Pipedreamer had the better chance out of the two (Pipe/PT) at that mark. It’s just a matter of whether Johnny Gosden can find a decent mile to place Pipedreamer in that a)won’t see Pipedreamer match with Tamayuz or HTN and b)won’t hinder Raven’s Pass’ chances at winning a top class group mile race.
Dan
To blame Manning for today’s defeat is laughable. That said, DOM clearly got the run of the race by virtue of being the more uncomplicated beast- he was always handy, had cover and was able to challenge on the rail at exactly the right time. NA fought for his head as usual, Manning did well to settle him but he still ran free and had to challenge wide- I thought he ran well for a horse that had been off since the Derby. DOM is a bit like Giant’s Causeway in that he doesn’t get the credit he deserves from all quarters because he just does enough to win, but he keeps winning.
The rematch? Only a fool or an optimist would bet on a different result given that New Approach’s failings are even more likely to be exposed around a track like Leopardstown.
If I were Jim Bolger? Breeder’s Cup Classic, send him from the gate!To blame Manning for today’s defeat is laughable. That said, DOM clearly got the run of the race by virtue of being the more uncomplicated beast- he was always handy, had cover and was able to challenge on the rail at exactly the right time. NA fought for his head as usual, Manning did well to settle him but he still ran free and had to challenge wide- I thought he ran well for a horse that had been off since the Derby. DOM is a bit like Giant’s Causeway in that he doesn’t get the credit he deserves from all quarters because he just does enough to win, but he keeps winning.
The rematch? Only a fool or an optimist would bet on a different result given that New Approach’s failings are even more likely to be exposed around a track like Leopardstown.
If I were Jim Bolger? Breeder’s Cup Classic, send him from the gate!Agree on the summary there that the Duke would beat NA at the Champions Stakes in two weeks. I think NA will be more healthy and race-ready but still cant see NA beating the Duke on current habits (pulling too early etc)
I must say, I’m slightly dissapointed we aren’t getting the rematch I definitely craved a few months back. HTN vs NA at this distance wouldve been mouthwatering seeing as it’s the happy-medium distancewise for both.
I deserted the duke today for the first time, now I’m a believer,as with the giant, the only way to beat him is wide and late, he is a machine,bring on the Irish Champion/Arc!!
Just to bring all those debating about New Approach’s performance back to terra firma – he was on reappearance after almost 3 months after an injury setback.
This is going to be a George Washington scenario. And then New Approach will come up in the Irish Champion or the Arc and thump the living daylights out of his competitors.
Kevin Manning is hopeless, however – he can be stable jockey to Bolger but in the big smoke he should fark off.
I couldn’t believe the Naivity of the commentator. "DOM the best turf horse in the world"
Yeah I heard that, is it just me or is D O M not particularly special, but the level of opposition around today for him is extremely poor? I know it’s a year/2 years too late, but Ouija Board/Manduro/Dylan Thomas would have wiped the floor with him!
I am not an AOB fan by any means but you can win one Group1, possibility two without being a great horse but no way can you knock off 5 in a row without being a top class horse. The horse just delivers. Even last year when he was not right he was still making the frame in G1’s and never out of the frame. Maybe we should just give credit where its due. He beat a horse who has been second in 4 consecutive G1’s in Phoenix Tower and laughed at the Derby winner. I think he is a stonking good horse.
I wouldn’t argue that he is a good horse but a Mill Reef or Brigadier he is not.
New Approach beat himself, I don’t think anyone would argue with that.
Was he 100%? I have no idea but he did what he did in the Derby only this time he never got away with it. It is highly possible that was because he met much better hiorses today..who knows?Take him out of th equation and what are you left with. DOM has beaten the improving Pheonix Tower 3/4 length which while a good achievement it is hardly something to write home about.
I just couldn’t imagine Pheonix Tower heading of to the USA, Japan or France and punters lumping on thinking he was a certainty becuase he has run the would be best horse in the world to 3/4 of a length.
For me he is mo more than ordinary by classics standards and beating him hardly makes DOM the superstar people are trying to make him out to be.
You reckon you can’t knock off 5 group 1’s unless your are special and you are correct but he has had it fairly easy. Mind you I was impressed by DOM the way he fought back against Papa Bull but again would Papa Bull be likely to win a group 1 in the US for example?. I think he would be hard pushed to even shake up some of the best from other countries.
Look at Kauto Star over the jumps as a comparison. Some of the animals he runs against are would be grouup horses but he destroys them whereas in his last two races DOM’s victories could best be described as brave, workmanlike or whatever handle you wish to put on them.
Good he is, but the best in the world? I hardly thnk so.
Some of the guys have pointed out Zarkava has only beaten horses of her own sex and age but she has been awesome in every race she has ran in.
That is a fair comment to make but my eyes and other senses tell me this is one very special filly who would do the same to anything that stands in her way. I certainly have absolutely no doubt she is better than anything we have in the UK or Ireland at the moment.She travels with great ease and when asked to quicken she does so in devastaing style. If she came at DOM the wy Papa Bull did she would eat him alive.
The press here say DOM is the best in the world, I think you would find a more than a few international judges disputing that.
You only need to read the comments on this forum to understand our own mentallity and how sheepish we can be. Every year we ramble on about young hurdlers belonging to Alan King, Paul Nichols Nicky Henderson or whoever. We forget there’s a little place across the water called Ireland who year after year come up with something miles better than anything we have. There we are walking about like someone just smacked us with a reality stick
Paper does not refuse ink and if the British Press say DOM is the best in the world it must be right
….In a pigs eye it is.You will have to wait for the Arc and then you’ll see the best in the world
I don’t say this because I am anti-DOM. Far from it he’s a lovely horse and a pleasure to watch but I think we are being sold a crock of s**** by the racing press.
Five Group 1 victories in a row.
Doesn’t matter how they are achieved, Duke Of Marmalade has somehow managed to put his head in front of everyone else’s for five straight races.
That in its own right should receive worldwide acclaim, and you get the drift where the British press are coming from.
The best in the world? He needs to meet a fit New Approach who gives himself every chance to win, and then Zarkava, Soldier Of Fortune, And then facing the remainder of the 3YOs from both the English and French Derbies.
I agree with the poster who suggested that Duke Of Marmalade is the best of a non brilliant bunch. He’s a mid 120’s horse on my ratings I don’t think this years crop of horses are particularly great. The Duke is very high class very tough and very consistant but he’s a few pounds behind the likes of Dylan Thomas and Authorised IMO despite the fact that he has won five Group 1’s. You can only beat whats in front of you however so you can’t knock the horse.
New Approach is ground dependant IMO. On ground with "firm" in it he’s about four or five pounds worse than he is on good ground or softer. At his peak he’s probably a pound or two behind the Duke but given the way he pulls if he could eliminate that problem its not impossible that he could improve further.
Phoenix Tower is still improving which isn’t surprising as he’s probably getting used to running in G1 company now. His Juddmonte run was the best of his career IMO. You have to feel sorry for him and Henry Cecil. Had it not been for Aidan O’Brien Cecil would’ve been reliving the good old days this season with multiple Group 1 wins.
As for the Arc. I don’t think the Dukes 12f form is quite as strong as his 10f form. I wouldn’t strongly fancy him for the Arc though of course you’d have to respect him. New Approach on his ground would have to have a big chance. Zarkava – she could be literally anything she’s untested but unproven against the colts and older horses. Her very best form is at a mile IMO but she’s barely been tested and there are too many unknowns at the moment to be certain that she’d be better over a mile than a mile and a half. Soldier Of Fortune is the forgotten horse but he has form as aggod as any at his best and given favourable conditions he wouldn’t be without a chance. The rest with Monmatre seemingly not running are difficult to fancy. I’d have it between New Approach, Zarkava and Soldier Of Fortune at the moment.
a sheep’s report
Guinea pigs twitched and rabbits tore up oaks
as the two horses of the acopolypse billed for the animals’ expects event went awol to be later found smoking and red-eyed in an up market flop house, red-eyed drunk and blind to the wares, watching old Buffy.
Approached with a harness they resisted arrest to sing a poor defence.
They call me sea bird it’s not my name.The race did not live up quite live to expectations for me. It needed some nostrilling which we never got in what can best be described as a pundits versus the markets clash.
Alistair’s Down post race face in a linear way described the fate of New Approach backers, and was reminiscent of Brough’s scars all those years ago when his face badly held together with a betting slip, as Secreto surprised El Gran snore – cracked
the market
Those waiting for the 11 to 10 are still at the bust stop and only the one-eyed backed the Ladbroke frightener at punitive odds on. I give full credit to Duke of Marmelade, and yes a phone call after papal Bull did suggest he was more ten than twelve, and there would be work and worries for him in the arc.
There was a huge torrent of money for him in the markets. It certainly frightened the sheep like me off and trying to balance I was half a case of burgundy down in what I saw as a trading race. I am actually having duck today
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Fist
It’s more than a few pressmen who rate Dom as the best turf horse in the world:
http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/2008Rankings/7_30_08_WLH_PressRelease.asp
But what would they know?
But what would they know?
Quite a powerful body by all accounts spanning wit’s Hong Kong,
the green successful pastures of Ireland
and North America.
But where’s our man in havana ?New Approach, according to Mr. Bolger, will have another crack at the Duke in the Irish Champion Stakes. Let’s hope so. I wouldn’t want DOM’s odds to be too restrictive on the day.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The best in the world? He needs to meet a fit New Approach who gives himself every chance to win, and then Zarkava, Soldier Of Fortune, And then facing the remainder of the 3YOs from both the English and French Derbies.
Forgive me, but it is those horses who have to beat him rather than the other way around. He was much less to prove than any of those, so has to be rated the top turf horse in Europe.
As for the New Approach not being ready after injury, well that is just after timing from most on here….everyone knew NA was returning from injury and could be fresh early on but the vast majority on here went against the Ballydoyle horse (the same face do so all the time) in favour of the Bolger colt.
I agree with the poster who suggested that Duke Of Marmalade is the best of a non brilliant bunch. He’s a mid 120’s horse on my ratings I don’t think this years crop of horses are particularly great. The Duke is very high class very tough and very consistant but he’s a few pounds behind the likes of Dylan Thomas and Authorised IMO despite the fact that he has won five Group 1’s. You can only beat whats in front of you however so you can’t knock the horse.
New Approach is ground dependant IMO. On ground with "firm" in it he’s about four or five pounds worse than he is on good ground or softer. At his peak he’s probably a pound or two behind the Duke but given the way he pulls if he could eliminate that problem its not impossible that he could improve further.
Phoenix Tower is still improving which isn’t surprising as he’s probably getting used to running in G1 company now. His Juddmonte run was the best of his career IMO. You have to feel sorry for him and Henry Cecil. Had it not been for Aidan O’Brien Cecil would’ve been reliving the good old days this season with multiple Group 1 wins.
As for the Arc. I don’t think the Dukes 12f form is quite as strong as his 10f form. I wouldn’t strongly fancy him for the Arc though of course you’d have to respect him. New Approach on his ground would have to have a big chance. Zarkava – she could be literally anything she’s untested but unproven against the colts and older horses. Her very best form is at a mile IMO but she’s barely been tested and there are too many unknowns at the moment to be certain that she’d be better over a mile than a mile and a half. Soldier Of Fortune is the forgotten horse but he has form as aggod as any at his best and given favourable conditions he wouldn’t be without a chance. The rest with Monmatre seemingly not running are difficult to fancy. I’d have it between New Approach, Zarkava and Soldier Of Fortune at the moment.
A good post Ian, I’d agree with almost all of what you have said. I don’t think, however, that New Approach is actually behind DOM, I actually think that he is a better horse, but we will have to see him on good or worse to see what he can do. I was hoping that he would handle the faster surface better yesterday, but after the way he was ridden, it is all "ifs, buts and maybes" good ground should give him a little more margin for error.
Someone has said on this thread that it was possibly just better horses in the international than the derby, I wouldnt say that but I would say that he had a far stiffer task coming off the turn at york than he did at epsom. It is very hard to make up ground on good to firm when the pace isnt that testing, and even more so when you dont actually like good to firm. I dont know how much the pulling actually cost him yesterday because pulling will sap your stamina, and he was done IMO for speed, so where a few people have said that had be been brought forward his chance would have gone, I dont really agree, in a more testing race in the derby (in terms of ground, pace and distance), he fought for his head and still had the stamina to get in front. On good ground, I think we will see a different horse, and lets hope so.
I agree with Fists that the Duke has had an easy enough time of it this season. His first race on soft he never ran into anything, and since then he has had the ground drop right for him on every occasion, and has not ran into anything, it is very lucky that there are no even relatively good good-firm middle distance horses about this year. There are plenty of better horses who have had a harder run of it. However, what he has done in winning 5 group1s marks him out as a very good and consistent horse.
Regarding the arc, DOM and Zarkava are not the sort of hosres I would look for in an arc. New Approach possibly but he needs to settle better, otherwise not even him. Fillies arc chances almost always dwindle away with pace, the arc very often throws up a furious test of stamina and fillies generally dont know whether to sh*t or go bust coming off the home turn, because they are well out of their comfort zones in terms of stamina and their speed is a distant memory. There have been some good ones in recent years not least Ouija Board and Shawanda, and Ouija Board stayed on extremely well in 2004 without ever being near good enough to get involved, let alone get near Bago (a horse who throughout the year would be recurrently done for toe and looked very average). Pride got a slow pace in 2006 which was right up her street (the race was pretty much set up for her) but she still found one to good.
The chance of Zarkava will depend on how much pace there is in the race, and on the ground IMO. A searching pace will find her out like it always does with the fillies, and for all that she has done this season she has not looked like a resolute stayer of 1m4f (having only won at 1 mile at 1m2.5f, she definitely looks a speedster). You have to look at the potential challengers and the size of the field to try to pre-empt the pace, and then the ground to try to figure out if the pace will make the race a searching test. Its usually a pretty safe bet to expect that Longchamp at the end of septemnber/start of october will be good or worse. Then it is worth looking at who may line up to challenge and whether they would be wanting pace. I reckon before you even go into the 3yos theres
Youmzain,
Soldier Of Fortune, (pretty much anything AOB might send, bar DOM will want pace, and he probably wont send DOM because of that)
Getaway (Fabre may even decide to have a go with Coastal Path instead of the Cadran if he feels that he has a good enough chance, if he were to then pace would pretty much be guaranteed)
All the legerish types, Lucarno, Sixties Icon, Ask etc may well turn up.
Papal Bull wants it fast but not on the ground, should he go.
Alderflug.There is quite a bit of potential pace in the race as it stands, but that is not to say that they will all run. Still, I would be watching over the next month to see how many of them will drop away, because IMO the more of them stay in and the worse the ground is the worse her chance is. However with that in mind I would currently look at her price of 7/2 as a bit ridiculous. I definitely wouldnt give her a favorite’s chance in an arc. Maybe in a KG&QE but not an arc. None of her races this season (impressive as they may have been) have looked like arc trials, and it is unlikely she will get a race in the Vermeille to prepare her for the arc.
Time will tell but at the minute I cant even remotely fancy her, not least at 7/2.
Quote – ‘Forgive me, but it is those horses who have to beat him rather than the other way around’
Absolutely Aidan – great point.
I was very disappointed with New Approach yesterday. I think he may well be better suited by a mile and a half but unless he learns to settle we’ll never see the best of him IMO. Beating Tartan Bearer et al while pulling like a train is one thing but I think yesterday made it clear that a lack of compliance with the jockey’s instructions will cost him dearly against the very best.
While respectful of the Duke I’ve never considered him a superstar (a bit like I felt about Dylan Thomas really) and the lesson is I think that AOB is becoming just as skillful at developing these latent talents as he is at producing precocious two year old champions, Guineas and Derby winners and Champion Hurdlers! When the next one comes along I’ll be ready (along with everyone else!).
Easy there Aidan – did not say Duke Of Marmalade had to beat those horses.
The sight of a Group 1 victory cannot look any different in the record books than winning at the highest level. But personally, I want to see near enough to the best horses currently on offer in the same stalls as Duke Of Marmalade, and that horse defending his title against new opponents.
….In a pigs eye it is.
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