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That is a lovely horse and apart from that one mistake it was such an assured round of jumping from a 6 yr old having just his 3rd chase since joining Thomas Gibney from France.
What was striking was how quickly he came back on the bridle after making that mistake – assuming he has no issues going right handed (he does go slightly right at his fences) and he can operate on quicker ground (did win on the flat on good to soft but all form on soft/heavy to date) you would have to say that the Grand National must be the taget next season as he will be eligible as a 7 yr old.
LD, he was perfectly ridden by his new jockey and improved for that change as well. He is 3 from 3 at Fairyhouse, but they could also aim him at the Savills’ chase just to see if he is GC material or not.
But, the GN surely has to be his main target for 24/25.
Caught part of the interview with his jockey and he didn’t think they were going fast enough!!!
Looking through his form he really is unproven on anything quicker the soft/heavy so that would be a question mark especially if dropping back in trip and at the faster pace they go in those championship races. The Betfair at Haydock might be a race to consider to see where they stand with him in regards to whether he could step up to that level….it gets pretty soft there too which would be a bonus.
I also think given the conditions he revels in that the Welsh National would also be a obvious choice given it is virtually the same trip as today and we all know how very deep it can get at Chepstow in December.
Felt a bit sorry for Jacob getting that injury which ruled him out of the ride today – there were rumours of him packing it in (potentially being his last Cheltenham Festival and all that) but maybe this horse might convince him to stick around a little longer.
Through the first part of the race they were crawling at around 24 mph. The pace started to pick up once they raced inside the final circuit.
Most drifters will lose / run poorly TTM, and I agree it is best to ignore most bad drifters. The nearer the off, the closer the market is to the true chances of the runners. Even with horses where their form indicates they have a better chance than the odds. ie The bigger odds usually indicate they are less likely / unlikely to show that form.
…However, if I can find a reason for at least part of the drift then I’ll put something on it. In this case the start of the drift could’ve been a lot to do with the money coming for his stable companion (Yeah Man) which often puts people off the other horse… I certainly wouldn’t be betting anywhere near my usual staking in such cases. It wouldn’t be a “main bet”, but only takes one @ 30 to win to pay for a load of disappointments.
Value Is EverythingThey say Jacob missed a winning ride, he may not have won were he in the saddle who knows.
The more I know the less I understand.
As I said before the race, ERL:
“Be interesting to see what the pace is like here.
Intense Raffles and Minella Cocooner the most probable to make it, but wouldn’t really be in their interests to make it a true pace. Maybe they’ll slow it down? Looking at previous years, Gigginstown seem to like their runners ridden prominently.
Senior Chief is usually ridden prominently – hope he is today – but going up in trip will they want to keep him back”?Senior Chief as I said they might, didn’t race as handily…
The Gigginstown horse made the running – finished 4th.
Minella Cocooner tracked pace, he was 3rd.
…And Intense Raffles was in the first two from very early.Ted Walsh’s horses hit form just at the right time. Suspect had they gone a good pace Any Second Now would’ve won. Feel sorry for TRFers who backed him. However…
Connections have hardly been trying to win all season, trying to get a good handicap mark for this.
So personally very pleased they didn’t win.
Value Is EverythingThe market told the tale with regard to Hartur D’Arc.
He made a bad mistake early, and subsequently was never that convincing. In the end he looked a non-stayer.
My inclination would be to drop him back to two and a half, and give him a prominent ride. Seeing daylight might well help him jumping. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if at some point they had a crack over hurdles again. He could be the new Seddon.
Bit of irony that he was trained by the winning trainer.
WD winners
Any Second Now was so close again. Great performance, but again just not good enough.
Mark, you were right with your predictions too bad you weren’t on the winner. But I know that you’re always seeking value and not sentiments.
With Minella Crooner the top-weight racing off 148 and the Irish having so many entries for the Aintree showpiece, this race looks rather like a 2nd class renewal of the Irish National.
In 2023: top-weight rated 160
2022: 158
2021: 151
2019: 157
2018: 163One again, the Irish domination becomes quite evident.
Thanks greenasgrass. Only a 6 year old so who knows if stays sound what he could achieve on top this success.
Wonder if Any Second now run at Punchestown festival or will he bow out after todayVf x
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