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Wasn’t that impressed with Saturday’s run by Muthabara, she seemed to take an age to get going and while she may improve for better ground, I think one or two others will have too much toe for her. I thought John Dunlop was fairly realistic about what she did afterward the race and while she could get a place, I’d be pretty stunned if she won it.
I accept that stamina could be Natagora’s downfall, will there be a lot of early pace in the race, if not she could get a reasonably easy lead and nick it from the front like another speedy recent winner of the race did. He overall form (against top class colts not just filllies) makes her the obvious choice in my book, especially in a race that seems to lack real depth.Infallible ha been reportedly going well on the gallops for some time prior to the nell gwyn and I can remember her being backed in to 33s, then she was backed in to as low as 16s in the day of the nell gwyn and she won easily. However she is by Pivotal who thrive on testing ground and despite being relatively inexperienced going into the nell gwyn she looked pretty much at the top of her game on the day. Should the ground pick up (and it looks like a very nice day up here in not usually so sunny north yorkshire, probably the first nice day of the year), I wouldnt be surprised if Spacious develops a gamble for the Cheveley Park people and the laying money starts to come in for infallible.
The Cheveley Park people would be in big trouble with the BHA if they started laying Infallible or any of their own horses
The big question really has to be, is there anything lurking about that hasn’t really come into people’s considerations that could turn up and beat them all? Quite a few recent 1000 Guineas have been won by horses hovering just below the main fancies.Obviously I drew no connection between Cheveley Park and the laying money…
It may not even be Cheveley Park that have backed her, but someone that knew something did and if the ground picks up I wouldnt be surprised if they start to worry.There were quite a few of the Nell Gwyn conetnders that looked quite neice but wouldnt have been suited to the ground and there will be more out there. On the day, if its gd-fm then just look for anything by Mr Prospector that is rated around 100 and is grossly overpriced. Virginia Waters was like this in 2005, 14-1, a trial winner, likely to be suited to the ground. She had a lot of positives going into the race and even more after it but it was hard to tell at the time however that she was one of those never to be backed again horses.
despite being relatively inexperienced going into the nell gwyn she looked pretty much at the top of her game on the day.
Wasnt the view from the paddock watchers that she would come on for teh race?
Paddock watchers and so called experts don’t always get it right. I’d have thought any filly can only improve at this time of year and that those with a run tend to have an advantage over those first time outers, but the 2 weeks can see a hell of a change, especially as the weather is due to pick up by weekend.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0zrQACI … re=related
Interesting ref: Ground conditions
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