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Every horse has something to prove before they go and prove it – you don’t have a point there I’m afraid – the three horses mentioned are desperate value at the moment.
As for races being substandard, bar Russian Rhythm’s year, the 1000 Guineas has often proven to be a Group 1 "in name only"….
She looks a massive filly full of scope
that was what struck me too. Not only that, chances are that she will settle better next time.She was clearly a class above these and even if this wasnt a top class renewal its hard to see how that performance definately keeps her out of the frame
I like what i saw
Pluses
Proven fitness
Clearly trained on
Change of Pace
Gosden/Fortune
Attitude
Open to significant improvement (was pretty weak in the market today)
Course Form
Large field form (beaten 32 rivals)
Likely to benefit from a stronger paceIrrespective of the opposition very few horses win classic trials in that sort of style. If she turns up in similar form on Guineas day she will be very hard to beat.
I thought she was very impressive.
Lost ground with a sluggish start, but was never in any danger at all out the back. Came through from last to first pretty quickly with the minimum of fuss and with still showing signs of greenness will no doubt come on again for the run.
Definitely one I’d want to be on rather than against, even if 3/1 does appear a little skinny at the minute.
I agree with all the positives. Very impressive run, imo. Didn’t think much of the tactics of the front-runners.
As for the Guineas, that’s not my favourite race, so I doubt whether I’ll be betting.
She travelled extremely well throughout the race and came through to contest the lead without so much as an ounce of encouragement from Jimmy Fortune, but it was a poor race by classic standards and she did look a little ‘awkward’ when quickening in the final furlong.
I’m not sure Natagora will be quite so easy to boss.
The time was unspectacular too, even accounting for the state of the ground. She won her maiden over course and distance a little over a second slower than she won yesterday’s race, but was carrying 2lb more on the former occasion. On the basis of her most recent victory, those she beat in her maiden are of far more interest (to me) for the future.
She’ll improve though, there’s no doubting that, and has to be a contender in what is, as TDK says, a weak-looking (as far as strength in depth goes) 1000 Guineas.
Spot on Fistycuffs.
I’m looking for the filly who is entering the 1,000 Guineas on reappearance and is wound up to the nines, ready to burst out of her skin.
No offence but TDK would say the price isn’t too bad as Corals are the guilty party making the horse 3/1 on that performance is a joke.
I would love to see what price they would make her is she was in a 3 horse race with Spacious and Natagora today……..I have a sneaky feeling she would be the outsider of 3 even with Corals and would finish accordingly.
To say this is a bad guineas at this stage is foolish……If Natagora stays and wins in the same fashion as she has been doing she will be regarded as extremely high class….If this Infallible is so good she is a 3/1 shot and is beaten by Natagora and Spacious then people might be saying it’s a great guineas…………The say there is doubt about Natagora staying the trip but she is a very relaxed filly who was given a perfect ride the other day. Just enough to make sure she won and she looked like she had pleanty left to work on……a few of us took long odds about her and I am begining to think she’s a bit of good thing despite what the betting says.
The race told us that Infallible has improved considerably from her debut last season but that further improvement will be required to win the Guineas. Whilst there’s every likelihood that she will improve upon this performance, is 3/1 a fair price at this stage? A bit skinny I’d say.
My preliminary calculations suggest a time rating of about 91 for this win, which is way below Classic-winning standard. Natagora posted a figure of 110 (on my figures) for her Cheveley Park win last year.
No offence but TDK would say the price isn’t too bad as Corals are the guilty party making the horse 3/1 on that performance is a joke.
I would love to see what price they would make her is she was in a 3 horse race with Spacious and Natagora today……..I have a sneaky feeling she would be the outsider of 3 even with Corals and would finish accordingly.
.None taken FOF – the last time you were on here for weeks telling all and sundry about how wrong Coral were was before the Gold Cup – I’ll take it as a positive at this stage
I have respect for Natagora and she could beat Infallible if she sees out the trip. Spacious would have to start now to win the Guineas imo.
Spacious would have to start now to win the Guineas imo.
I think that’s a bit harsh. It’s arguable that she and Infallible should be priced alongside one another given the similarity of their profiles. They’ve each had two runs, progressing from maiden wins on debut to Group success second time out. Both Spacious at Doncaster and Infallible yesterday could be named the winner some way out, so strongly did they travel. Both recorded decent but not top class times – Spacious 107, Infallible 104, on my figures – and the placed horses in each race were respectable but far from outstanding yardsticks.
Mind you, I’ve backed Spacious ante-post so I’m probably looking at her through rose-tinted glasses.
I couldn’t have Spacious at all. Fanshawe’s record with 3-y-o’s early in the season is pretty poor and the fact he has admitted she won’t run in a trial because she hasn’t come to hand yet is hardly a positive sign. I certainly wouldn’t be backing Infallable at 3/1 but she couldn’t have done any more yesterday and she is certainly more than 3 lengths better than the runner-up.
Should she be fav? For me no, Natagora remains the likeliest winner but Infallible looked potentially a top-class flly yesterday.
Gus,
I have Spacious on a time rating of 107 for her Doncaster win – as you say, a marked step up on her debut. However, whilst she travelled well during the race, the manner of her win was, ultimately, not that impressive. James Fanshawe’s recent comments about her weren’t exactly upbeat and the easterly winds that are now set to prevail for some time at HQ probably won’t help either.
Whatever the standard of this season’s 1000 turns out to be, though, it’s already shaping up into an intriguing race.
Why all this talk about "I wouldn’t take 3/1" etc.
Anyone who takes 3/1 is an idiot when 4/1 (a full 5% better) is available.
I believe Natagora has the best chance of winning and still looks value at current price.
I do not think 4/1 is Infallible value, but before the prices were given I considered 5/1 being a price I’d take. Therefore with an unexposed filly 4/1 would be the price I’d go if I were an odds compiler. 4/1 then is not a disgraceful price, just not good enough.
What price would you offer for Infallible?
Ginge
Value Is EverythingShould she be fav? For me no, Natagora remains the likeliest winner but Infallible looked potentially a top-class flly yesterday.
If it was betting n which filly would end the season with the highest rating I would make Natagora a slight fav. I just think the mile might suit Gosden’s filly better ad it is hard to get an exact handle on how good she might be. The main thing that impressed me yesterday is that Infallible looked in a totally different league to her rivals from a long way out – whatever the figures say it is quite unusual to see that in a Group 3 imo.
Very impressive. 3/1 may be short but aside from Natagora, what else is there?
Can anyone who has backed Muthabara in the last couple of weeks explain exactly why? This filly has no claim whatsoever to be even double the price she is, and people seem only to willing to part with their money based on reports of her cantering.
Crazy.
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