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I am a self confessed non follower of flat racing but I should add that only stretches back about 10 years. It’s not that I don’t like the flat I simply find it very hard to make it pay.
I just watched Infallible winning and I see Coral’s have cut her to 3/1 favourite.
Well I was very impressed NOT!!!!! second string beats a 16/1 in a grade three they can’t be serious, can they?
There is no way that horse is anywhere near good enough IMO won’t be in the first 3.
You see time and time again when its comes to the guineas trials.Them being won in good style the winners odds are then cut really short.Only for them to get beat out of sight in the big race,just look at the winners of last yrs craven and greenham,impressive winners they where,but i dont think either horse has won since.
Infallible has seen her share of money in the run up (probably more than spacious), going from 33s and 40s into 16s and 20s and had some good gallops reports. She looks to have won well today in a group3 Guineas Trial (the main point being that the nell gwyn is a decent ajnd usually well enough contested guineas trial, not just a group3), I think she was suited to todays ground possibly more than what she will get on guineas day, but if the weather doesnt pick up soon she may get her ground. If that was the case though I’d probably go on O’briens (and TDKs) Savethisdanceforme as a similar sort for those conditions at a better price.
Had a feeling todays race would throw up a decent winner but couldnt have had a go on any of them antepost as they all looked to be roundabout the same level. Havent seen todays race but the bookies were instantly impressed and the result looks good enough, a 3 length win in a guineas trial is usually goodish form, and it is not a great year.
Slow pace played right into her hands Bul, honestly think they are taking the mickey. If Carv is right and Natagora stays this filly wouldn’t blow wind up her backside IMO. Huge difference in class.
Wouldn’t back her fists, and will definitely watch the race when it goes up but the racing post reckon:
As big a field as we have seen for this race in recent years, but it lacked a standout on form and they were all available beforehand at upwards of 20-1 for the 1,000 Guineas.
Those were the odds still available about the once-raced INFALLIBLE prior to racing, but she had been nicely backed over the last couple of weeks and the price collapsed when she took this field apart and won easily in a time fractionally quicker than Stimulation’s earlier in the Free Handicap.
Having been green in the preliminaries, especially when asked to begin the canter down to the start, the winner was slow into her stride from her stall towards the wide outside and raced at the back of the field through the first half of the race. However, the response was impressive when she was asked to close, and having joined long-time leader Kylayne around the furlong pole she quickened clear in style, despite continuing to edge right.
It was the manner in which she won rather than what she beat that saw her Guineas price cut to just 3-1 with Corals (those initially offering 5-1 and even 6-1 were soon under pressure), for one could not help but be impressed. The form would not yet compare with that of Natagora for instance, or perhaps even the same owner’s May Hill winner Spacious, but it was a massive step up on last year’s maiden race form and she can be expected to improve again next time. The stable’s 2005 Nell Gwyn winner Karen’s Caper was only fourth in the Guineas, but this one looks capable of improving on that.Just a possible viewpoint that the bookies may have agreed with.
Wouldn’t back her fists, and will definitely watch the race when it goes up but the racing post reckon:
As big a field as we have seen for this race in recent years, but it lacked a standout on form and they were all available beforehand at upwards of 20-1 for the 1,000 Guineas.
Those were the odds still available about the once-raced INFALLIBLE prior to racing, but she had been nicely backed over the last couple of weeks and the price collapsed when she took this field apart and won easily in a time fractionally quicker than Stimulation’s earlier in the Free Handicap.
Having been green in the preliminaries, especially when asked to begin the canter down to the start, the winner was slow into her stride from her stall towards the wide outside and raced at the back of the field through the first half of the race. However, the response was impressive when she was asked to close, and having joined long-time leader Kylayne around the furlong pole she quickened clear in style, despite continuing to edge right.
It was the manner in which she won rather than what she beat that saw her Guineas price cut to just 3-1 with Corals (those initially offering 5-1 and even 6-1 were soon under pressure), for one could not help but be impressed. The form would not yet compare with that of Natagora for instance, or perhaps even the same owner’s May Hill winner Spacious, but it was a massive step up on last year’s maiden race form and she can be expected to improve again next time. The stable’s 2005 Nell Gwyn winner Karen’s Caper was only fourth in the Guineas, but this one looks capable of improving on that.Just a possible viewpoint that the bookies may have agreed with.
Bully, i’d say they’re just seeing who would part with their cash at a stupid price.. I agree with Fists… Strangely..
I agree you Princess you should go with what your eyes tell you but you still have to look at what she beat. The second as you say is no great shakes and the fact is that is what she beat. If Spacious had ran in that what price would she have been? and I dare say she would have disposed of them every bit as easily…….the big difference is Ifallible hasn’t raced in top class yet and to do what she done today wouldn’t be good enough to get her into the first 3 IMO.
Dont get me wrong I do generally agree. My opinion from looking at the result is that the race has played to the strengths of those who wanted a fair bit of cut. I generally would expect the guineas to be good-fm, so she I agree that she is probably a crazy price 100%, but the bookies will try to get away with a false favorite if they can, and if the ground stays bad then she would probably be open to improvement, but wouldnt even consider her a bet.
Just waiting on seeing Muthabara now.
I agree you Princess you should go with what your eyes tell you but you still have to look at what she beat. The second as you say is no great shakes and the fact is that is what she beat. If Spacious had ran in that what price would she have been? and I dare say she would have disposed of them every bit as easily…….the big difference is Ifallible hasn’t raced in top class yet and to do what she done today wouldn’t be good enough to get her into the first 3 IMO.
Spacious is a horse who I really like but other than that £6,000 bet and slight subsequent support she hasnt really been that solid in the market, considering where she sits in relation to the opposition. She is apparently still in her winter coat which was the case with few in 2006 generally isnt good for a 1,000 guineas challenge, and it is still quite cold here so she may hold on to it for a bit. She has a fortnight to get that sorted and step up her work a bit, but wouldnt surprise me 100% if Fanshawe shows her some patience, he pulled Soviet Song out of plenty enough races.
Adagio calling. If I remember correctly that one fooled a few noted posters on here, last year after his Craven run. Pascal Bary and my substantial antepost ticket will sleep comfortably tonight. Who knows, if this one sucks in enough folks I might just wade back in on the day.
Adagio calling. If I remember correctly that one fooled a few noted posters on here, last year after his Craven run. Pascal Bary and my substantial antepost ticket will sleep comfortably tonight. Who knows, if this one sucks in enough folks I might just wade back in on the day.
Not this callsign! I went on Major Cadeuax and US Ranger
Just for the record I was holding a chunky win only ap on Dutch Art and was a bit annoyed with myself afterwards.
I thought Infallible was mightily impressive. I disagree with Fist that the slowish pace played into her hands infact her jockey claimed they didn’t go fast enough for her.
She didn’t get away well and I thought after a furlong or two "she won’t win from there she’d have to be very good" but win she did, very easily in the end, travelled, quickened and looked thoroughly professional. Big, strong filly the mile of the Guineas looks certain to suit her and if they go a good gallop and she’s waited with she could power home in the final furlong.
The only non positive for me is that the bare form of nothing she has done to date is Group 1 winning level. She’s a definite Group 3 filly and she’s better than todays bare form given that she wasn’t hard ridden. How much better – that is the question. She deserves to be cut for the Guineas and to be fancied for it but whether or not she deserves to be favourite I dont know.
A "definite GRoup 3 filly"?!? She has just absolutely hacked up in a Group 3 and looked in a totally different league to her rivals.
3-1 sounds short, but a quick look at the oppostion will tell you why we have gone that price. Natagora is undoubtedy classy but has a trip doubt – but Muthabara, Spacious and Cape Amber all have loads to prove on what they have actualy shown us on on the racecourse.
Bottom line – It isn’t a good 1000 guineas and for me, Infallible looks way more talented than a lot of previous winners of the race. Was anyone ever that impressed by Wince, Lahan, Ameerat, Speciosa etc etc etc?
That was impressive today. I wouldn’t get too bogged down with what she beat, she travelled beautifully and picked up nicely when asked. She looks a massive filly full of scope, will get a mile and oozes class. 3/1 is skinny but not by much.
A "definite GRoup 3 filly"?!? She has just absolutely hacked up in a Group 3 and looked in a totally different league to her rivals.
3-1 sounds short, but a quick look at the oppostion will tell you why we have gone that price. Natagora is undoubtedy classy but has a trip doubt – but Muthabara, Spacious and Cape Amber all have loads to prove on what they have actualy shown us on on the racecourse.
Bottom line – It isn’t a good 1000 guineas and for me, Infallible looks way more talented than a lot of previous winners of the race. Was anyone ever that impressed by Wince, Lahan, Ameerat, Speciosa etc etc etc?
Imo a group 3 in name only which subsequent events might bare out. Concerning the "they all have loads to prove" part, so did Infallible before today. Let’s wait until the three others you mentioned show up in the next few days, who knows maybe the dark side will be throwing us another 3/1 shot by weeks end. Agree that it does not look anything like a vintage Guineas and the fact that Infallible is by Pivotal means she definitely liked today”s ground which Gosden stated after the race and even went so far to say that he would not like to see firm ground on the day, which all but ensures that the water taps will be sprinkling overtime if there is any chance of that. Regardless I would not bet her at 3/1 with dark side money.
it looked pretty impressive and the best we have seen so far.
but this is the problem we look for a horse to do this and as at this moment we have found one, but do we take it at face value a impressive winner of a weak trial who should run well in the guiness or a horse destined for top honours this season.
without more trials we are just guessing.
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